Breaking down Tarik Skubal and the MLB pitcher market: Best values, bust risks, and hidden gems

The 2026 MLB offseason is underway, and there is no shortage of intriguing pitchers available on the open market. Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, and Zac Gallen are all established All-Stars, while the likes of Shota Imanaga and Dylan Cease are in an excellent position to cash in. And, of course, we can’t discuss pitchers without bringing up Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal and Milwaukee Brewers standout Freddy Peralta, both of whom could be traded this winter.

If your favorite team needs starting rotation help this offseason, you’re in luck. Now is the perfect time to evaluate the best — or, at least, the most noteworthy — starting pitchers who could find new homes this offseason. For this list, we’ve grouped pitchers into the following four categories:

• Trade targets. This is self-explanatory. 
• The established pitchers, many of whom are former All-Stars. These are free agents who headline the free agent market, such as the Astros’ Framber Valdez. 
• Bounceback candidates. Maybe they’ve battled injuries, or perhaps they’re coming off a down season. Either way, these are guys who might settle for a one-year, prove-it deal, or who might command a multi-year contract worth far less than they likely expected. The Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen is an excellent example. 
• Breakout candidates. Again, this one is fairly self-explanatory. 
• Finally, we have the guys you shouldn’t forget about. Perhaps they’re veterans such as Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander on their last legs, or they’re international players like Tatsuya Imai. 

Finally, we’ve listed all pitchers alphabetically, and we’ve even gone so far as to predict where each player will pitch in 2026.

Tarik Skubal and Freddy Peralta headline the trade targets

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

The 29-year-old Peralta dominated for the NL Central-winning Brewers, going 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA and a 204-66 K-BB ratio in 176 2/3 innings. His 5.5 bWAR ranked seventh among pitchers leaguewide, and he’d instantly make a contender’s rotation better whether he becomes their new ace or a No. 2 behind an already-established, top-of-the-line starter.

Where will he pitch in 2026? Atlanta Braves. The Braves are coming off a stunning 76-86 finish, their first losing season since 2017. If there was ever a time for the Braves to be aggressive, it’s this offseason, and Atlanta must consider giving up top prospects for Peralta. He won’t come cheap, but when you share a division with the Mets and Phillies, there’s no reason to save money if you believe you can compete for a World Series title.

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

The 29-year-old Ryan took a massive step forward in 2025, finishing 13-10 with a 3.42 ERA and a 194-39 K-BB ratio in 171 innings. As tempting as it might be to be concerned about the 26 home runs he allowed, we live in a time where 67 starters gave up at least 20 homers.

Where will he pitch in 2026? Boston Red Sox. We saw the Red Sox trade four prospects for Chicago White Sox ace Garrett Crochet last winter, and a similar move for Ryan makes sense now. To be clear, we’re not suggesting that Ryan is anywhere near the type of pitcher that Crochet is. However, Red Sox executive Craig Breslow has already publicly said he wants to add a No. 2 or No. 3 behind Crochet, and we feel that Ryan checks the boxes.

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

You know Skubal’s story by now. He’s arguably baseball’s best starting pitcher, and he’s given the Tigers a 2.30 ERA, a 469-68 K-BB ratio, and 12.9 bWAR over 387 1/3 innings the last two years. Every team should have already called, left voicemails, and called the Tigers again to see if they can add Skubal.

Where will he pitch in 2026? Detroit Tigers. Unfortunately for Yankees and Dodgers fans, we have a gut feeling that the Tigers will stubbornly keep Skubal this winter. Whether or not they’ll trade him next summer depends on where the Tigers sit in the playoff race. However, if the Tigers get off to a slow start and are hovering around .500 on July 1, we won’t be surprised if Detroit deals Skubal before the All-Star Game.

Established All-Star free agent starting pitchers

Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays

Bassitt returned to form for the Blue Jays this past season, recording a 3.96 ERA and 2.1 bWAR in 170 1/3 innings. Even if he only signs a one-year contract ahead of his 37th birthday, Bassitt’s durability — he’s averaged 176 innings and 30 starts since the beginning of 2021 — and experience make him an intriguing free agent.

Where will he pitch in 2026? Toronto Blue Jays. Bassitt had a 1.04 ERA and a 10-2 K-BB ratio over 8 2/3 playoff innings with the Blue Jays, and it’s often smarter to stick with who, and what, you already know. 

Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres

Cease turns 30 on December 28, and his early Christmas gift could come in the form of a long-term contract. Although Cease has never made an All-Star Game, he’s had two top-4 Cy Young finishes in the last four seasons, and he’s had five straight years with at least 200 strikeouts.

Where will he pitch in 2026? San Francisco Giants. Justin Verlander (more on him later) is likely departing, and the Giants can definitely use another high-caliber arm to hold off the Padres and Dodgers. Cease won’t come cheap, but that didn’t stop the Giants last offseason when they gave Brewers shortstop a seven-year, $182 million contract.

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

Have we seen the last of Framber Valdez with the Astros? If so, Valdez leaves the Astros having gone 68-41 with a 3.20 ERA and a 875-305 K-BB ratio in 902 1/3 innings the last five seasons. However, Valdez’s 3.66 ERA this past season marked his highest since becoming a full-time starter during the shortened 2020 season.

Where will he pitch in 2026? San Diego Padres. With Cease and Michael King both free agents, the Padres need to add another quality starter atop their rotation. Valdez, who turns 32 on November 19, has positioned himself for a nine-figure contract, and the Padres must consider meeting his demands.

Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia Phillies

Suárez played a pivotal role for the NL East-winning Phillies, tallying a 3.20 ERA and 4.7 bWAR across 157 1/3 innings in 36 starts. Although Suárez has never made 30 starts in a season, he’s an excellent middle-of-the-rotation pitcher who should regularly compete for an All-Star selection.

Where will he pitch in 2026? Philadelphia Phillies. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Suárez has played his entire eight-season career with the Phillies, and he’s evolved from an impressive reliever to a solid starter. We’re especially interested to see what kind of contract Suárez earns on the open market.

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

The 32-year-old Imanaga opted out of his contract after going 24-11 with a 3.28 ERA and a 291-54 K-BB ratio in 318 innings the last two seasons. Teams should be concerned, though, about Imanaga’s strikeout rate dropping from 25.1% to 20.6% and his walk rate increasing from 4.0% to 4.6%.

Where will he pitch in 2026? Seattle Mariners. The Mariners have a long history with Japanese players and a championship-caliber roster. Imanga and the Mariners are a perfect match. 

Bounceback candidates

Michael King, San Diego Padres

King qualifies as a bounceback candidate only because knee and shoulder problems limited him to 73 1/3 innings in 15 starts. Considering his impressive 2024 campaign (13-9 with a 2.95 ERA and a 201-63 K-BB ratio over 173 2/3 innings), we’re confident King will still earn a multi-year contract this winter.

Where will he pitch in 2026? Los Angeles Dodgers. You can never rule the Dodgers out when it comes to free agents, and a Clayton Kershaw-sized hole in their starting rotation opened up following the future Hall of Famer’s retirement. The Dodgers and King know one another all too well as NL West rivals, and now is the time for the two to put their differences aside. 

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

Gallen has three top-10 Cy Young finishes since the start of 2021, though he career-worsts in ERA (4.83), home runs per nine (1.5), hits per nine (8.3), and bWAR (1.1) over 33 starts for the Diamondbacks. We’re still not ready to write Gallen off yet, and a change of scenery might be perfect for the 30-year-old All-Star. 

Where will he pitch in 2026? Texas Rangers. Four Rangers starting pitchers — Patrick Corbin, Jon Gray, Merrill Kelly, and Tyler Mahle — all hit free agency, while Nathan Eovaldi is coming off a rotator cuff strain and surgery for a sports hernia. Gallen’s experience speaks for itself, and his durability should absolutely appeal to a Rangers team eying only its second winning season over the last decade.

Zach Eflin, Baltimore Orioles

So, we have a Zac and a Zach. Eflin underwhelmed in his first full season with the Orioles, posting a 5.93 ERA and -0.3 bWAR in 71 1/3 innings before season-ending back surgery. You’ll likely see Eflin, who turns 32 next April, settle for a prove-it contract this winter.

Where will he pitch in 2026? Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates haven’t signed a free agent to a multi-year contract since 2016, and Eflin checks every box for a rebuilding team. His pre-injury track record is strong enough that a contender might be interested ahead of the deadline, and he’ll be motivated to leave his disappointing 2025 season behind him.

2026 breakout candidates 

Tatsuya Imai, Saitama Seibu Lions

Although Imai is an established pitcher in Japan’s Nippon Baseball League, we’re including him as a breakout candidate only because he’s never played in the majors. Imai, who turns 28 next May, is 58-45 with a 3.15 ERA across eight NPB seasons. He’s fresh off going 10-5 with a career-best 1.92 ERA and an excellent 178-45 K-BB ratio in 163.2 innings this year.

Where will he pitch in 2026? New York Yankees. Enough has been said about the Yankees’ 16-year title drought, and they’ve spent big on All-Star pitchers Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Max Fried since the 2019-20 offseason. We expect Imai to be next up to command a big contract from the Yankees.

Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles

Sticking with Japanese pitchers, the 36-year-old Sugano went 10-10 with a 4.64 ERA across 157 innings for the last-place Orioles. However, he allowed a league-leading 33 home runs, though he only walked 36 hitters over 30 starts in his first MLB season. Sugano told the Baltimore Banner in September that he wants to pitch in the majors next season rather than return to Japan.

Where will he pitch in 2026? Baltimore Orioles. There’s no reason for the Orioles not to consider bringing Sugano back, even after his inconsistent rookie season. The best-case scenario for Baltimore might be flipping Sugano at the trade deadline for a prospect or two. 

Zack Littell, Cincinnati Reds

It’s certainly worth arguing that the 30-year-old Littell has already broken out, posting a 3.73 ERA over 343 innings the last two seasons. However, we’re including him here because there may very well be a team that believes he can take that next step and grow into a No. 3 starter, especially if he’s open to taking a one-year deal.

Where will he pitch in 2026? New York Mets. The Mets need another starting pitcher, and their priorities in free agency should be re-signing first baseman Pete Alonso and closer Edwin Diaz. Littell definitely makes sense for the Mets, and we’ll see if they explore giving him an opportunity. 

Don’t forget these guys!

Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants

Verlander, who turns 43 in February, went 4-11 with a 3.85 ERA in 29 starts for the Giants. However, his 0.9 home runs per nine matches his career average, and his 8.1 strikeouts per nine weren’t awful for a starter in his 20th season. Verlander has already publicly declared that he wants to pitch in 2026.

Where will he pitch in 2026? Detroit Tigers. Who says that you can’t go home? Verlander pitched in Detroit from 2005-17 and is one of the most accomplished players in franchise history; his 56.1 bWAR ranks ninth among Tigers and trails only Hal Newhouser (61.5) in pitching bWAR. By no means should the Tigers expect Verlander to return to his Cy Young form, but this would make for a fun reunion.

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

Although injuries limited Scherzer to a career-worst 5.19 ERA in 17 starts, he bounced back with a 3.77 ERA over 14 1/3 postseason innings. All signs point to Scherzer pitching next season, though we’re skeptical he’ll return for a second season with the Blue Jays.

Where will he pitch in 2026? Chicago Cubs. The Cubs need another starting pitcher, and Scherzer is a veteran presence with extensive playoff experience. As with Verlander, the chances of a 41-year-old Scherzer regularly carving through opposing lineups the way he did with the Washington Nationals are a pipe dream. However, that doesn’t mean the three-time Cy Young winner can’t give the Cubs five innings every fifth day.

Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals 

The 37-year-old Mikolas is still going strong, recording a 4.84 ERA in 156 1/3 innings and 31 starts for the Cardinals. At this stage in his career, Mikolas is a solid back-end starter who has averaged 183 innings the last four years.

Where will he pitch in 2026? Miami Marlins. Mikolas will likely need to settle for a one-year contract, which should be enough for the Marlins. For what it’s worth, Mikolas grew up in South Florida, and the Marlins could definitely use an innings-eater at the back of their rotation. 

Nick Martinez, Cincinnati Reds

Martinez’s 4.45 ERA marked his worst since returning to the United States from Japan ahead of the 2022 season, though he set career-highs in starts (26) and wins (11) for the Reds. If a team views Martinez as a fourth or fifth starter, he’s worth the investment on a one-year deal.

Where will he pitch in 2026? Cincinnati Reds. Martinez has been solid the last two seasons in Cincinnati, and the Reds know exactly what he brings to the table. Bringing Martinez back is a safe play for Cincinnati, especially because he should come relatively cheap.