A report surfaced this week that the Detroit Tigers and Tarik Skubal are reportedly $250 million apart. That report is lacking in context, as Skubal was always unlikely to sign an extension with the Tigers before he reaches free agency in 2026. Skubal's agent, Scott Boras, can afford to name an outlandish price this winter because he knows the Tigers won't match it just yet.
To his credit, Skubal has said all the right things about wanting to remain in Detroit.
"I hope so. Obviously there's a business side of the game that's not as good or beautiful as the baseball side," Skubal said, visibly uncomfortable in an interview with a local Detroit sports podcast. "I love playing here...I'd love to spend my entire career here...I don't get to write my own contracts so there's that business side of the sport that gets a little messy...it's out of my control."
Skubal wants to focus on baseball. The Tigers season just ended, meaning Skubal will take some time off before preparing for next year. This man lives and breathes to be the best pitcher on the planet. The last two seasons, he has accomplished just that, and will likely win his second straight AL Cy Young as a result. Tigers fans remain rightly curious about his future, and as the offseason unfolds we'll likely receive more bread crumbs about just that. For now, though, your guess is as good as mine. Here's what we know so far.
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The Tigers have been here before
Prior to the 2014 regular season, the Tigers offered then-AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer a $144 million extension, per reports. Scherzer, who is also a Boras client, turned that deal down to instead test free agency. In his walk year, Scherzer finished fifth in AL Cy Young voting with Detroit. He then signed a seven-year, $210 million deal with the Washington Nationals, where he won a World Series.
This is not to say Skubal will leave the Tigers like Scherzer did. Detroit's front office had a completely different makeup back then, and late Tigers owner Mike Ilitch was willing to spend whatever it took to bring a World Series to Motown. His attempts to win through free agency did not work, though, which speaks to the Tigers current plan. Mike's son, Chris, hired Scott Harris to build through the draft and player development. Detroit's payroll has dropped greatly since then (in today's dollars), and Harris will not be held hostage by one player, as it could derail that plan.
Instead, don't be surprised if Harris tries to negotiate with Boras on his terms, or even shops the two-time Cy Young winner this winter. Harris didn't comment on extension talks with Skubal in his end-of-season press conference, opting instead to keep those a private matter. If the two sides really are as far apart as early reports suggest, it could be a long winter ahead for the Tigers.
Could the Mets trade for Tarik Skubal?
For what it's worth, rival scouts and executives seem to think the Tigers will consider dealing Skubal while they still have the chance. In an article from SNY, one rival exec said it'd be downright irresponsible for the Tigers not to shop Skubal, as they'd almost certainly lose him in free agency.
“That’s why it’s hard to predict which way this thing will go,” said an executive from a mid-market NL team. “In a vacuum it’s a no-brainer, unfortunately, considering Skubal is a (Scott) Boras guy and all that. You make the best trade you can and move on. But in the real world that’s a tough sell when you haven’t won in 40 years.”
The Mets could afford Skubal, and just signed another Boras client, Juan Soto, to the richest contract in baseball history. David Stearns also has a loaded farm system to trade from, which includes MLB-ready talent and position players the Tigers would almost certainly demand back in return.
Will the Yankees try and add Skubal as well?
In referencing Jon Heyman's initial report that the Tigers and Skubal are, again, $250 million apart, Yanks Go Yard's Adam Weinrib wrote the Yankees should at least make a call to the Tigers for Skubal's services.
"Perhaps things have changed just one year out from free agency. Maybe Detroit has wised up. Maybe Skubal has come to the negotiating table this winter with open arms and a kind heart. Still ... that's agulf.If things don't get any rosier between the two parties this offseason, Scott Harris and the Tigers would be wise to add to their rich farm with a monstrous Skubal trade," Weinrib wrote.
Any trade package for Skubal would start at the top of the Yankees rich farm system. Weinrib's hypothetical trade package would include the likes of Spencer Jones, Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Carlos Lagrange and perhaps Bryce Cunningham. However, he also admitted the Tigers asking price could start with Cam Schlitter or George Lombard Jr. That's a tall ask, even for a player like Skubal, as he's on an expiring contract next season.