Tarik Skubal's latest playoff gem just backed the Tigers front office into a corner

If there's one thing we've learned about Tarik Skubal over the last couple of years, it's that he's at his best in a hostile environment. Just days after pulling a Keystone Kops routine to help the Detroit Tigers cough up the AL Central to the Cleveland Guardians in the final week of the regular season, Skubal got his shot at redemption in Game 1 of a Wild Card rematch at a hostile Progressive Field — and he made sure he didn't miss it.

Skubal put together one of the most dominant postseason starts you'll ever see on Tuesday afternoon, striking out 14 Guardians batters over 7.2 innings of one-run ball. (Lest you think that's hyperbole: He's the only lefty in MLB history to strike out at least 14 batters while allowing one or fewer run in a playoff game.) He was pumping triple-digits into the eighth, and while his teammates made it dicier than it had to be, it was just enough for the Tigers to escape with a huge 2-1 victory to open this best-of-three series.

On a day when the Tigers didn't have much of anything going against Cleveland righty Gavin Williams, Skubal just fully put Detroit on his back and carried them to a win, the kind of performance that makes even a team without a ton of other top-end talent feel like they have a shot at a title. Of course, it's also the kind of performance that underlines in bright red ink just how valuable Skubal is to this team. Not that Tigers fans needed any convincing; but as we barrel toward the lefty's final year under contract in Detroit, Scott Harris and this front office would do well to remember this moment when it comes time to negotiate a potential extension.

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Tarik Skubal's value to the Tigers was never clearer than Game 1

It really is hard to overstate just how much Skubal's evolution into the best pitcher in the AL — and one of the two or three best in the entire sport, at an absolute minimum — has meant to the Tigers. This team was lost in the wilderness just two or three years ago; now it's enjoying a second straight postseason run, and Skubal isn't the only reason why, he's by far the biggest.

Just look at Game 1, when Detroit's offense felt hard-pressed to even put a man on base for much of the afternoon. And yet, it didn't matter: Because the Tigers had Skubal, they had a chance, and when a sacrifice bunt from Wenceel Perez gave them a 2-1 edge in the late innings, that was enough to make you feel like Detroit was going to steal a win.

That's the value of Skubal to a big-league roster. It doesn't matter what you put around him; as long as he's on the mound, any lineup has the chance to go win a game. And that means even more to a team like the Tigers, who have shown under Scott Harris that they're not particularly interested in playing in the deep end of the free-agent pool.

Without Skubal, it's hard to figure out what the vision is in Detroit. Yes, the young talent is enticing, with Greene, Colt Keith and Kerry Carpenter locked up and with top prospects like Kevin McGonigle ready to make an impact sooner rather than later. But this simply isn't a very talented roster right now, and there's no easy path to competing with the bigger spenders in the AL — that is, without Skubal powering you to 20-25 wins a year just on his own. (Seriously: The Tigers went 21-10 in Skubal's starts and 66-65 in everyone else's.)

If Detroit has any hope of building off of the success of 2024 and 2025, they need to keep Skubal around for the long haul. But that'll be easier said than done.

What will it cost to get a Tarik Skubal extension done?

Skubal does seem to love playing in Detroit, the team that drafted him in the ninth round back in 2018 and helped shepherd him to stardom. But all the good will in the world won't matter if the Tigers don't pay him what he's worth.

Just where might that number wind up? The top of the starting pitching market right now is set by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed a record-setting 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers two offseasons ago. Yamamoto landed that deal ahead of his age-25 season, practically unheard of for a big-time free agent and four years younger than Skubal (who turns 29 this November). Then again, Yamamoto had yet to throw a pitch in the Majors yet, while Skubal is about to win his second straight AL Cy Young Award.

Skubal probably isn't getting 12 years; for comparison, Gerrit Cole, who was the same age as Skubal when he signed with the Yankees in free agency, got nine years and $324 million. Something like that is probably where the bidding for Skubal will start; $350 million feels like it might be enough to get a deal done given the injury risk involved in being a starting pitcher at the highest level. Signing now would make sense for both sides ... that is, assuming Skubal doesn't get sick of having to do it all by himself.