The Astros are doomed unless they can fix their massive pitching problems

Nolan Ryan haters will tell you that he is super overrated, and the 2026 Houston Astros might be why they’re right.

Among several reasons for their argument is that Ryan, considered by many one of the greatest and most feared pitchers in the history of the game, often struggled to find the zone. He walked by super-far the most batters in MLB history, with his 2795 walks sitting as nearly 1000 more than anyone else. It’s a big reason he never won a Cy Young Award in his 27-year career.

The Houston Astros pitching could not be much worse if they tried

Well, if Ryan wants to go for season 28, I’m sure he’d fit in great with the 2026 Houston Astros, who’s pitching woes are starting to become a downright scandal. They have been ravaged by injuries, sure, but they’re not the only MLB team with starters on the IL. With a 5.61 team ERA, it looks noncompetitive; but breaking down their pitching numbers yields results that suggest they shouldn’t be this bad. But I think I got them pinned down: it’s the walks. 

With a team struggling this bad, we’re going to have to treat this like a murder mystery. Here’s perplexing clue number one: the fascinating thing about the Astros — now tied with the Los Angeles Angels for the worst record in the sport — is that their hitting stats aren’t bad at all. In fact, they aren’t even middle-of-the-pack; they’re actually good. 

Explaining what's wrong with Houston's pitching is a complex question

Perplexing clue number two: while their team ERA is an absolute disaster, digging into their Statcast pitching stats tell a murkier picture. They’re getting slugged on like crazy, but their expected opponent-slugging is middle of the pack. Same goes for their opponent-average and opponent-on-base; all the expected figures tell you they are one of the unluckiest teams in baseball. They have given up the second most home runs, second only to Coors Field and the Colorado Rockies. 

But it’s not like their fielders are the reason for this. Defensively, the Astros have been fine-to-good all year, not particularly shooting themselves in the foot or posting anything that leads me to believe their pitchers have criminal defense behind them. This is a pitching problem, not fielding one. Back to the conspiracy board.

Our final and most perplexing clue is this: among a cacophony of horrific pitching stats, one shines through as actually good: strikeouts. They are seventh in the MLB in Ks, despite giving up a bajillion runs and posting appalling pitching stats otherwise. (Somewhere, Nolan Ryan cracks a wry smile)

The Astros have to stop walking so many batters

It’s one of those cases that requires you to dig into advanced stats to understand the problem and then dig into the real world to solve it. How could you strike out so many people and still give up 5.61 runs per game? Well, the hits you do give up will score a whole lot more runs when you walk 217 guys in only 43 games. Dr. Watson, I think we’ve figured it out. 

Let’s take this out of the supercomputer-expected-adjusted-wizarding-stat world and ground this in easily understood things: the Astros are simply walking too many guys, the most in the MLB by a lot, which leads to impossible at-bats for pitchers trying to compensate and recover all the time. They are second-worst in first-pitch strike percentage, meaning they get behind in counts constantly. Getting behind in counts begets loud contact which begets earned runs which begets … losing. 

A walk is almost always as good as a hit, the very theory that started the Moneyball Era (“he gets on base”), and the Astros are currently pitching like it’s the mid-80s and they can Nolan Ryan their way to the promised land. Any fix for this season has to start with reducing walks, plain and simple. Case closed.   

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