The Dodgers are risking everything with bold Roki Sasaki gambit

As the Los Angeles Dodgers try to hold on for dear life to their increasingly tenuous lead over the San Diego Padres in the NL West, some very high-profile help is on the way. L.A. is set to officially recall Japanese righty Roki Sasaki to the big-league roster ahead of Wednesday night's game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, more than four months since he last set foot on an MLB mound and more than a month since he began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Oklahoma City.

That the Dodgers have enough confidence in Sasaki to bring him back now, with just days left in the regular season and playoff positioning very much still on the line, is noteworthy in itself. But what makes this particularly eyebrow-raising is the role Los Angeles has in mind for its prized rookie: According to Dave Roberts, Sasaki will be coming back not as a starter but as a reliever.

“He’s done what he needs to do to get an opportunity," Roberts told reporters on Tuesday.

And that's true enough. Sasaki has battled both shoulder and calf injuries this summer, and just a few weeks ago his stuff had diminished so much that the Dodgers couldn't hide their concern about the declining velocity on his fastball. Recently, though, there have been encouraging signs, as Sasaki has been back up in the high 90s over his last handful of outings. There are still kinks to be ironed out — his command still isn't what it needs to be, for starters — but he's looking much more like the guy Dodgers fans thought they were getting this winter.

Given everything that's on the line right now — after a 5-4 loss in Arizona on Tuesday, the Dodgers are just 1.5 games up on the Padres in the division and at real risk of losing home-field advantage in the Wild Card round — Los Angeles needs all hands on deck. And given both their surplus of starting pitching options and just how shaky this bullpen has looked in recent weeks, it's obvious where this pitching staff's needs lie.

There's a chance that this works like gangbusters, that Sasaki's stuff plays up in limited spurts and he's exactly the sort of high-leverage piece the Dodgers bullpen has been desperately searching. But the risk here also can't be overstated, both for the rest of this season and far beyond.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.

It's not hard to understand why the Dodgers are tempted by Roki Sasaki in the bullpen

The Dodgers bullpen right now is ... not great, Bob. Michael Kopech, Brusdar Graterol, Evan Phillips and Brock Stewart are all on the IL, Blake Treinen suddenly can't find the strike zone and Kirby Yates has allowed at least one earned run in four of eight outings in the month of September. Things have gotten so bad that Roberts has no choice but to continue turning to struggling closer Tanner Scott in late-game situations — despite the fact that he keeps turning potential wins into heartbreaking losses.

If any team could use one more flamethrower to help stop the bleeding, especially from the right side, it's L.A. And Sasaki's resurgent fastball and still-elite splitter give plenty of reason for hope that he might moonlight as a darn good reliever, with the potential to go multiple innings if needed. Just when the Dodgers seemed out of answers, a game-changer may have fallen into their laps.

Of course, if it were that simple, Sasaki would've gotten his shot in the bullpen weeks ago. But there's a reason he's been stuck in Triple-A, and it's not just because of health. His transition to life in the Majors has been bumpier than just about anyone expected, both physically and emotionally. And when you combine those struggles with the challenge of adapting to a new role in the middle of the most pressurized baseball of the season, you have the potential for a spontaneous combustion — one that could ripple well beyond 2025.

This plan could go very, very wrong — both in 2025 and beyond

Roberts himself seems to understand the risks involved here. While the idea of Sasaki's return is no doubt tantalizing for Dodgers fans, the manager did his best to manage expectations ahead of time.

“It’s something he’s never done before,” Roberts said. “If it goes well, he’ll get an opportunity this coming week. … Now getting himself an opportunity on the field, the two days off, and once you get into some type of cadence, it’s still pitching and it’s still baseball. I feel he can do it, but it’s up to him to go out there and perform.”

Sasaki came on in relief twice at Triple-A last week, allowing just one walk while striking out three in two clean innings. And again, from a pure stuff perspective, there's no reason why he couldn't thrive here if his fastball is back to pre-2025 levels. Then again, the fastball concerns go back to his time in Japan — it was such a concern that the righty made it a big part of his meetings with prospective MLB teams over the winter, trying to find the organization best positioned to help him recapture his previously triple-digits velocity.

There's still every chance that Sasaki's fastball falls apart again, especially as he tries to adjust to an entirely new routine while facing the most pressure that he ever has as a professional baseball player. That pressure has already taken its toll on him this season: Sasaki was famously brought to tears in the Dodgers dugout after a particularly rought start earlier this year. That's perfectly understandable for someone in his position, a 24-year-old given massive expectations in one of the biggest media markets in the world, but it's still something to consider when thinking about throwing him into the hothouse of a pennant race.

And if things go poorly, if Sasaki goes haywire and costs the Dodgers a game or a series, how will he respond? This is a big ask the team is making, and it could be enough to derail his already fragile confidence as he looks to establish himself as a future starter in the Majors. L.A. clearly feels that's a risk worth taking given the circumstances, but the downside is immense.