The last shoe just dropped in any hopes of Tarik Skubal sticking with the Tigers

Former San Diego Padres pitcher Dylan Cease has quickly cemented himself as one of free agency’s biggest winners, having signed a seven-year, $210 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays earlier this week. Only weeks after coming one game short of winning their first World Series since 1993, the Blue Jays left no doubt that they intend to make it back to the Fall Classic next year. 

Cease’s move north of the border should put the rest of the American League on notice, and not only because they’ll have to worry about facing him more frequently in the coming years. If the Blue Jays were willing to commit seven years and over $200 million to a pitcher with a career 3.88 ERA and a 10.0% walk rate, then you can’t blame other All-Star caliber pitchers, such as the Detroit Tigers’ Tarik Skubal, if they’re already envisioning what they’ll get on the open market. 

By signing Cease to such a lofty contract, the Blue Jays officially — and likely unintentionally — welcomed the Tigers to a new reality, one where their chances of extending Skubal ahead of his impending free agency are all but over. 

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Dylan Cease’s contract likely means Tarik Skubal isn’t staying with the Tigers

Although there have been no credible rumors regarding the Tigers trading Skubal this winter, the clock is nonetheless ticking. The two-time defending AL Cy Young winner is set to hit free agency next offseason, though a potential work stoppage could delay him from cashing in. 

Barring injury, there is no reason to think that Skubal won’t clear at least $250 million in free agency. In fact, we personally won’t be surprised to see him surpass $350 million, especially if a team like the Mets is desperate enough. Skubal and Pittsburgh Pirates ace — and NL Cy Young winner — Paul Skenes are arguably baseball’s two best starting pitchers, and contenders should jump at the opportunity to land Skubal if he’s available. 

As of November 2025, it’s difficult to imagine that the usual contenders — the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Phillies and even the Blue Jays — won’t be in play for Skubal next winter. If not for the possibility of a lockout following the 2026 season, those teams might be even more incentivized to acquire Skubal this offseason and immediately try to extend him.

Where does that leave the Tigers? Outside of Javier Báez, the Tigers typically don’t break out the big bucks anymore. The mass spending from 2011-17 that kept Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander in Detroit, as well as added the likes of Prince Fielder, Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann, resulted in a single pennant (2012) and no postseason berths from 2015 through 2023. Báez signed a six-year, $140 million deal in December 2021, but he’s mustered just a .626 OPS and 3.9 bWAR in that stretch.

Handing out a massive contract to any player, even if it’s a dominant ace like Skubal, might give the Tigers pause — and we’d certainly understand the initial hesitation. Every free agent contract, especially the longer ones, comes with risks. More often than not, the best that you can hope for is winning a championship during the contract’s early seasons. That’s why Yankees fans seemingly give the Álex Rodriguez contract a pass, and why the Mike Trout extension has aged horribly. The Yankees won the 2009 World Series, and the Angels haven’t had a winning season in a decade. 

The Tigers may surprise us and extend Skubal within the coming months, even if it means cutting him a check exceeding $300 million. Either way, Skubal should consider thanking Cease for giving Skubal an extra leg to stand on when he and Scott Boras begin negotiating his next contract.