The Tigers’ massive draft gamble may blow up in their face

Detroit's 2025 MLB Draft class will hinge on a key decision from its 11th-round pick.
Detroit Tigers president of baseball operation Scott Harris, left, and manager A.J. Hinch watch pitching practice during spring training at TigerTown in Lakeland, Fla. on Sunday, Feb. 16, 2025.
Detroit Tigers president of baseball operation Scott Harris, left, and manager A.J. Hinch watch pitching practice during spring training at TigerTown in Lakeland, Fla. on Sunday, Feb. 16, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Detroit Tigers took a few unconventional swings in the 2025 MLB Draft. It's way too early to know how any of these prospects will turn out, but selecting high school shortstop Jordan Yost in the first round — the No. 50-ranked prospect at MLB Pipeline — was a very Tigers pick. It also carries substantial risk, as he's still in the early stages of physical development and needs to develop his power in the coming years.

Detroit leaned heavily on high school talent throughout the draft, focusing on players who won't help the big-league squad for another few years at least. But perhaps the most compelling swing of all came in the 11th round, when Scott Harris and company selected 18-year-old pitcher River Hamilton.

A top-100 prospect at MLB.com, Hamilton fell all the way to Detroit at No. 339. But there's a reason for that: He's committed to LSU, and that commitment is considered to be pretty iron-clad.

It's not uncommon for later-round picks with college commitments to forgo signing with an MLB roster in favor of playing at college and eventually reentering the draft three or four years down the line. Should Hamilton decide to stick with the reigning champs at LSU instead of signing with the Tigers, the luster of Detroit's draft class will fade quickly.

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Tigers bet on 11th round pick River Hamilton passing up LSU opportunity

Detroit has $10.9 million in bonus pool money and saved cash with under-slot picks in the early rounds, presumably with hopes of prying Hamilton away from LSU with a more significant offer than your average 11th-round pick. That's a fine strategy in theory, but it's far from a guaranteed success. LSU has a strong track record of pitcher development. Hamilton could easily go to school, thrive for a competitive Tigers team and enter the draft to much higher projections later.

Detroit, in all fairness, has done an excellent job of developing its pitchers in-house. Tarik Skubal, Jackson Jobe, Casey Mize; there are many such examples. If Hamilton has the big-league itch and gets a nice above-slot bag from the Tigers, then that could be enough to convince him. Success in college is never a guarantee, especially for a pitcher. What if he gets hurt? What if he gets buried in a deep LSU rotation? Then passing up on the money and a guaranteed MLB development plan might age poorly. It's a double-edged sword.

That said, the Tigers really need Hamilton to commit.

River Hamilton is a potential draft steal if Tigers can lock him up

Following in the footsteps of Mick Abel and Noble Meyer as an Oregon prep pitcher, Hamilton has captured the imagination of MLB scouts.

"He’s already up to 95-96 mph with his fastball with good carry and some tailing action, and it’s easy to envision more consistent velocity coming as he fills out his 6-foot-3 frame," reads his MLB Pipeline scouting report. "When he’s on top of his slider, it’s a tight breaking ball with traditional two-plane break, getting a lot of swings-and-misses. He has good feel for his changeup, especially for a high schooler."

With at least three plus-ish pitches at his command and a projectable frame, Hamilton could be an elite value pick for the Tigers. He's worth a nice chunk of that leftover bonus pool money. But LSU will also fight hard to keep him and there is significant glory to be gained from a stint with the (college) Tigers.

In the coming days and weeks, few preseason decisions will be more fascinating to monitor than that of Hamilton. Detroit added a ton of pitching in earlier rounds, but their first-round selections were a high school shortstop and a high school catcher, neither of whom address immediate positions of need, nor will they be ready in the near future. Hamilton has the potential to emerge as a key rotation cog in due time. This whole Tigers draft class was a bet on the distant future. It feels far more likely to pay off if Hamilton signs on.