Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The St. Louis Cardinals sit just 1.5 games back of Milwaukee in the NL Central at 29-22, but roster weaknesses loom large.
- Chaim Bloom has built a stronger team but five underperforming players could derail their playoff hopes if not addressed soon.
- The Cardinals must decide whether to stick with struggling veterans or turn to prospects before October pressure mounts.
The St. Louis Cardinals have been remarkably steady in the NL Central, currently 29-22 and 1.5 games behind first-place Milwaukee. It's time to accept the Cards as a real contender. The lineup has morphed into a more powerful unit with Jordan Walker's breakout, while the rotation continues to do just enough.
Chaim Bloom deserves a ton of credit for the job he has done, building a better roster while expunging bad money and recouping a ton of prospect capital in offseason trades. Still, there are weak links in the Cardinals roster, which could prove consequential down the stretch if changes aren't made:
RHP Dustin May
St. Louis inked Dustin May to a one-year, $10 million contract in free agency. How and why are unclear, as May has done little to establish himself as a dependable big-league starter. May flashed major upside early in his career with Los Angeles, but injuries and inconsistency have slowly tarnished his reputation.
May has been up and down this season for the Cardinals, but he currently has a 5.00 ERA (among the 10 worst qualified pitchers in MLB) with a 1.43 WHIP. He allowed four earned runs in Thursday's loss to Pittsburgh, slipping back into a few bad habits.
The Cardinals smartly asked May to throw his fastball more frequently this season, but unfortunately, his secondary stuff still gets hammered. The Cardinals cannot expect May to contribute anything meaningful in October.
LHP JoJo Romero
JoJo Romero was phenomenal in high-leverage spots for St. Louis last season, a rare bright spot for an otherwise mediocre team. Why exactly the Cardinals took him into a contract year, rather than trading him at peak value, is a bit of a conundrum.
On the surface, Romero has performed just fine this season. He has a 2.92 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 22 strikeouts in 24.0 innings. That said, the expected metrics (4.67 xERA) paint a more troubling portrait. Romero's groundball rate is down and he's giving up a lot more hard contact. St. Louis' elite defense lends a helping hand, but the southpaw is due for regression.
The Cardinals' bullpen as a whole, with the exception of lights-out closer Riley O'Brien, has struggled relative to their success. If Romero hits a snag in the months ahead, which seems likely at this point, St. Louis will run into significant trouble.
UTL Thomas Saggese
Thomas Saggese was once a top infield prospect in the Cardinals farm system, but the 24-year-old has done little to reward St. Louis' faith are earning a spot on the Opening Day roster.
Saggese helpfully plugs holes all over the infield and even in left field, but he's straight up one of the worst hitters in MLB. He does not qualify for the leaderboards, but his .404 OPS and 18 wRC+ across 74 plate appearances is abysmal. Saggese strikes out a bunch; he's mostly reliant on weak contact and he isn't a standout defender, aside from the versatility aspect. Even the base-running metrics are middling. He has zero stolen bases.
At a certain point, the Cardinals will need to accept that Saggese has nothing to offer right now and probably belongs in Triple-A until further notice.
LHP Matthew Liberatore
St. Louis has tried for a couple years now to prop up Matthew Liberatore as their next ace, but it just ain't happening. It's hard to point to what exactly the 6-foot-4 southpaw does well. He pitches to hard contact; he has a deep arsenal, but aside from his curveball, none of Liberatore's main offerings produce solid, sustainable results. His four-seamer — his most used pitch — has an opposing average of .323 with a .643 expected slugging percentage.
Liberatore's 4.70 ERA is bad enough, his his expected 5.64 ERA suggests that he is really tiptoeing around catastrophe more often than not. He has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his last five starts and in five of 10 total starts this season.
The Cards aren't exactly ripe with elite, MLB-ready prospect depth on the mound, but it's probably time to consider a demotion for Liberatore, with Jurrangelo Cijntje, Quinn Mathews and others at least close enough to enter the conversation.
SS Masyn Winn
Masyn Winn has been propped up as a pillar of St. Louis' next generation, and understandably so. He's lightning quick and maybe the best defensive shortstop in the National League, which is always going to support value (although the defensive metrics this season are more average).
That said, Winn is not very productive at the plate right now, which is tough since St. Louis continues to shoehorn him into the middle of the lineup. Winn is hitting .240 with minimal power and a strikeout rate that is creeping in the wrong direction.
Winn is extremely dependent on his speed, which can play in certain situations, but middle-tier contact hitters who don't really slug typically don't hold up in October. Winn has fallen short of expectations the last couple years now, and while it's far too early to write him off completely at 24 years old, the Cardinals (and their fans) need to be mindful of Winn's limitations.
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