For weeks now, it's felt as if trade talks between the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros have been heating up, with baseball fans almost unilaterally assuming that it ends with Isaac Paredes in Boston. Yet, that hasn't happened yet. Though it might still be the likeliest path for these two clubs given the Red Sox' need for an infielder that can provide some more offense and quality defense, and the Astros potentially cashing in for more pitching or outfield help. But what if Craig Breslow and Boston were actually aiming higher — like Jeremy Peña higher?
Let's be clear, I'm not saying this isn't an outlandish idea. Peña is one of the best young players in baseball, and would cost a fortune on the Red Sox' side of any trade negotiations. At the same time, while Breslow is talking about upgrading the defense being the priority in the infield, and looking for one more big splash, maybe they could get the Astros to budge with a godfather offer.
What a Red Sox-Astros blockbuster trade for Jeremy Peña would look like
In reality, it wouldn't be outlandish for the Red Sox to include even more in a trade for Peña, given his value in any hypothetical negotiation. At the same time, Boston is still sending a ton of value in this trade. Duran is an All-Star caliber outfielder, Connelly Early is one of the most intriguing young left-handed arms in prospect rankings (and performed at a high level at the end of 2025), Franklin Arias is a Top 30 prospect in baseball, and David Sandlin is a toolsy minor-league arm that can hit triple digits.
Again, if the Astros also wanted another Top 30 prospect in this deal, I wouldn't blame them. You could also sub out Early for another top-prospect southpaw, Payton Tolle, just as you could even include someone like Brayan Bello instead of David Sandlin. Boston has flexibility and depth to give Houston anything they could ask for, and this trade would ultimately fit the plight of both teams and their outlooks.
Why the Houston Astros would trade away Jeremy Peña
Alright, let me start with addressing the very real possibility that the Astros have no interest in trading Peña. That would obviously be completely reasonable if that were the case, especially if there's interest from Boston in Paredes. That's certainly a trade that they would prefer to make simply based on how important Peña can be to this roster.
Having said that, the Astros were apparently in extension talks with Peña this past season, but the infielder then switched his representation to Scott Boras, which killed those discussions. That then led to The Athletic's Chandler Rome ($) floating the idea, after the Winter Meetings, of potentially moving Peña before his contract runs out at the end of the 2027 season.
The impetus for that conversation starts with Kyle Tucker. Contractually, it wasn't a dissimilar situation to Peña's in that it appeared an extension was unlikely. Though it was with just one year remaining on his deal instead of two like Peña, the Astros traded him to the Cubs in a deal that landed them young up-and-comer Cam Smith and, incidentally, Paredes. If that's what trading a one-year deal landed Houston, though, they have to be imagining what trading away two years of Peña could mean for them in terms of a return.
As for the proposed return here, the value of Duran can't be overstated, specifically for the Astros. They need something more from their outfield group that currently consists of Jesus Sanchez, Zach Cole, Jake Meyers, and Smith mixed in as well. Even with Duran taking a step back from 2024 to 2025, he was still a 3.9 fWAR player, which is what Peña is projected to be this season by Steamer, for whatever that's worth. But Duran fits a position of need, and Houston would have the ability to move Smith back into the infield to fill the void that'd be left by Peña.
While Houston would be hoping that Duran could help balance out the lineup and maintain their level of offense, the richness of the deal comes thereafter. Early would immediately be a rotation piece for the big-league club with six years of control remaining and high, high-end potential based on what little we've seen from him, and the improvements that could be made from there. So, in turn, the Astros would be upgrading their pitching while, ideally, not losing much offensively.
Then there's still Franklin Arias and David Sandlin, both of whom could be immensely valuable for the Astros. Arias could be the future of the infield, and has shown immense promise at just 20 years old. Sandlin, meanwhile, could be a potential immediate flamethrowing bullpen piece, or even get a look as another hard-throwing starter as well.
All told, though, Houston doesn't have to move Peña by any means. However, doing so would fit the mold of what they learned with Tucker, but while getting more value by doing it earlier. And with this type of return, they could also still potentially make a run at winning the AL West this season, and for years to come.
Why the Boston Red Sox are in a perfect spot for such a trade
Signing Ranger Suarez in a surprise move put the Red Sox in a position of strength to pursue almost any move for an infielder within reason. Yes, Peña is a pie-in-the-sky type of target, but one could argue that no one outside of Boston has the ability to fill a need in the infield with a player of his caliber from the perspective of what they can deal, and that they may even be able to afford an overpay.
The addition of Suarez gives Boston near unmatched starting pitching depth. Coming into the offseason, if no moves had been made, Early and Tolle were going to be in the starting rotation, pretty much no questions asked. But after adding Suarez while having already traded for Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo, the Red Sox are looking at uncertain roles for both lefties and their No. 2 starter last season, Bello, as their No. 4 or 5 starter in this rotation.
And that's before you even talk about the likes of Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Kyle Harrison, and a few others.
While I'm extremely high on the future of Early and Tolle, the fact of the matter is that they are not in a position where they won't be leaning on either player (barring injuries) this season. Thus, trading one in the right deal would make sense — the same of which is true for Arias given the presence of Marcelo Mayer, and for Sandlin with guys like Luis Perales, Kyson Witherspoon, Marcus Phillips and Anthony Eyanson, among others.
Then, we know about the outfield surplus. Duran is a part of that, and while it's always hard to part with such a valuable piece of the roster, he (or Wilyer Abreu) are valuable enough to headline a deal that better sets up the Red Sox roster. And Peña is absolutely the piece that could be the one missing from a legitimate World Series contender.
Going Peña, Trevor Story, Marcelo Mayer, Willson Contreras across would give Boston one of the better defensive infields in the league, while the additions of Peña and Contreras also give the offense two right-handed bats with some pop and .800+ OPS potential (or maybe even a likely outcome for the two). With that, the Abreu-Roman Anthony-Ceddanne Rafaela trio in the outfield, and this rotation, you're talking about a team that can go deep into October.
Again, none of this is to say that a Peña trade is likely for the Red Sox. The opposite is true. At the same time, with Boston still in need of a bat, and involved with talks with Houston already, it's worth at least considering how this trade could benefit both the Red Sox and Astros.