The New York Mets made their first trade of the deadline, securing hard-throwing left-handed reliever, Gregory Soto, from the Baltimore Orioles. It was a necessary move with an overwhelmingly right-handed bullpen, and with a 5.02 bullpen ERA since the beginning of June, the Mets likely aren’t done making additions.
A dream acquisition would be the Minnesota Twins’ right-hander, Jhoan Duran. The overpowering closer has a 1.90 ERA this season and an average fastball velocity of 100.3 mph which has been as fast as 104.8 mph. Batters on both sides of the plate are pretty inept against Duran, but he’s actually a reverse splits guy with lefties hitting 0.087 worse than righties, making him an ideal fit for the Mets.
Making Duran the setup man for Edwin Díaz and his 1.55 ERA would create a nearly unhittable back-end of the bullpen that few teams could rival. The question is whether the Mets will be able to outbid the rest of the playoff field for Duran.
How much would it take to get Jhoan Duran?
As with any trade, it will take more than anyone else is willing to give up. But if we want to get more specific, and we do, it helps that we have some recent history to go off of. The Gregory Soto trade, which is only a day old, required the Mets to give two minor league pitchers, neither of whom were top 30 prospects.
The asking price for Duran will undoubtedly be higher, not just because Duran’s a better pitcher, but because he isn’t a free agent until 2028. It’s difficult to find a good point of comparison, because usually when elite relievers are on the market, they’re half-season rentals. Perhaps the best recent example we have is when the Milwaukee Brewers shocked everyone in 2022 by trading Josh Hader to the San Diego Padres.
Hader was only under contract for another year when he was traded, and the Padres had to give up four players, only two of which were prospects, though. Robert Gasser and Esteury Ruiz were the Padres’ 7th and 28th ranked prospects when they were sent to Milwaukee. The reason the trade was such a shock was because the Brewers weren’t “sellers” that year. They were still gearing up for a playoff run and wanted established Major League players in return for Hader, which is not the case with this year’s Twins.
Let’s assume the return for Duran is going to be about what the Brewers got for Hader, but let’s swap the two established Major League players for another prospect. I think the Mets would need to give up at least three top 30 prospects, with one of them being in the top 10.
So here’s a hypothetical trade package for Duran: Carson Benge (#4), Jack Wenninger (#14), and Dom Hamel (#29). Benge is an outfielder with a .974 OPS in double-A, Wenninger is a starting pitcher with a 3.55 ERA in double-A, and Dom Hamel is a 26-year-old in triple-A who would likely make his debut for the Twins in short order after a hypothetical trade.