If there was even an ember of hope still burning in Detroit that back-to-back Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal could work something out to stay long-term with the Tigers, it's been snuffed out with the heel of a boot after Thursday's arbitration deadline. The Tigers and Skubal were not only unable to come to an agreement prior to the deadline, meaning they'll now head to a hearing to decide his salary for the final year of his contract in Detroit, but they weren't even remotely close to the southpaw ace's number.
According to ESPN insider Jeff Passan, among others, the Tigers offered $19 million to Skubal on their end of arbitration, which would've been one of the richest agreements for a pitcher in arbitration history (David Price received the most from Detroit in 2015 at $19.75 million). The problem, however, was that they weren't even within $10 million of Skubal's number, as the ace and his camp filed at $32 million. And that makes it painfully clearer than ever before that this breakup is inevitable, one way or another.
Tigers will likely win arbitration, lose it all with Tarik Skubal
The quickest possible rundown of what will happen next is that the Tigers and Skubal will sit before an arbitrator and state their cases as to why their numbers were the right one. The arbitrator will then determine the value and, using the middle number of $25.5 million, will then determine whether the lefty makes $19 or $32 million in the 2026 season. That depends on what side of $25.5 million he lands on.
Though this is only educated speculation, it appears more likely that the arbitrator will side closer to the Tigers. Again, Price's figure from back in 2015 of $19.75 million is the highest total a pitcher has ever got in arbitration — it's hard to imagine, even with how dominant Skubal is, that's going to get cleared by more than $12 million.
Unfortunately for the Tigers, that'll only be digging their grave deeper when it comes to their superstar pitcher.
All reports to this point have indicated that Detroit and Skubal haven't really been in the same ballpark when it comes to any possible extension offers or negotiations. That's led to the multitude of trade rumors this offseason, and the general belief that he won't be with the Tigers beyond this season at best. Now, if this goes to arbitration and the Tigers indeed win, they'll further alienate their star lefty both with their arguments in the process and with not coming close to meeting what he and his representation feel he's worth.
It should be noted, this can all be avoided if the two sides agree to a deal and monetary figure before the hearing takes place. However, with a $13 million gap to close in order for that to happen, that feels more than just unlikely. And it all points to a future in Detroit without Skubal rapidly approaching.
The question then becomes just how rapidly.
With arbitration the last straw, what will Detroit do with Skubal?
Just hours before news of the Grand Canyon-adjacent gap between the Tigers and Skubal in arbitration was reported, insider Jon Heyman also gave us one of our first concrete updates regardint the southpaw's trade market. And suffice it to say, it didn't make a deal seem close.
Heyman noted that the New York Yankees are among the teams who have "checked in" with the Tigers regarding Skubal, but were left feeling as if they'd have to give up "half the team" to Detroit in order to get a trade done. That, of course, sounds quite egregious as the Tigers are telling potential buyers that they value their star that highly, but then offered up an arbitration filing that didn't seem to indicate the same.
While that may be the irony in this situation, that enormous ask on Detroit's part does seemingly back up something that feels quite pertinent about the team's plans for Skubal from much earlier in the offseason. There were reports out of the Winter Meetings that the Tigers would be content to hold onto Skubal throughout the offseason, and then reevaluate at the trade deadline based on their standing in the playoff race.
Naturally, if they felt they were in a position where they'd be better off trading Skubal rather than riding this to the end (the end, of course, being losing him for nothing in free agency), they could still get a king's ransom given the proverbial tax of making midseason moves at the trade deadline.
What's undeniable after the gap in arbitration filings, though, is that the Tigers holding onto Skubal and then somehow hanging onto him might be even less than a pipe dream at this point. At every turn in this process, they've been near insulting with their valuation of Skubal in regards to trying to retain his services. Arbitration is just another blatant example of that, and that changing so drastically over the next 10 months feels less possible than ever.