Unexpected Cubs headache destined to cost Chicago a World Series

The Chicago Cubs finally got back into the win column with a 4-1 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday, but overall it's been a nightmare second half for a team that many had pegged as World Series favorites just a month or so ago. Chicago is just 5-6 in August and 11-12 since the All-Star break, a stretch that's seen the scorching hot Milwaukee Brewers run away with the NL Central lead. The vibes are not great on the North Side right now.

There are plenty of places to point fingers, but any blame game has to start with the offense: Once arguably the best in baseball, the Cubs have posted a .693 team OPS in the second half that ranks just 23rd in baseball. Pick a star, from Kyle Tucker to Seiya Suzuki to Michael Busch to Ian Happ, and chances are they've been scuffling. But no one has had it worse than the man who not too long ago looked like an MVP candidate, center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.

For as magical as PCA's ascent to superstardom was earlier this year, his crash back to Earth has been just as ugly. He's tallied just three hits over 42 plate appearances in the month of August, with a .636 OPS since the break. His OPS for the season is now down to .808, and his OBP is an ugly .291. His elite speed and defense in center mean he'll always be a valuable player; but the Cubs have counted on him as a middle-of-the-order bat all year, and right now he's looking more like Johan Rojas.

Even more concerning, this might be a bit more than just a midsummer slump.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong's flaws are rearing their head at the worst time for the Cubs

To be clear, PCA obviously isn't this bad as a hitter. The last few weeks have been a perfect storm of bad luck, missing pitches that he usually hits and opponents adjusting as they get more information on Crow-Armstrong's tendencies. But it's also hard to avoid the sense that a crash like this was always coming.

Crow-Armstrong is a tremendously talented player, but even during his scorching hot start to this season (and his scorching hot close to 2025), there were major red flags about his approach at the plate. There might not be a more aggressive hitter in all of baseball: His chase rate ranks in the first percentile, and his overall swing rate (a full 14 percentage points above the MLB average) isn't far behind. It's no surprise that he's getting fewer and fewer pitches to hit, and rather than adjust, he continues to swing away.

He's got the athleticism and bat control to make that high-wire act work much better than most hitters, and again, it's not like he's a bottom-of-the-order hitter all of a sudden. The tide will turn a bit, and the power should return before long. But the player that Cubs fans grew accustomed to seeing in the first half likely isn't coming back; MLB teams are simply too smart, and they know how to attack a player who swings as wildly and as often as PCA does. The slugging ability will always be there, but the on-base percentage likely won't be, and that matters a lot for Chicago given just how little they're getting from all the players around Crow-Armstrong right now.