October is still in full swing, but for 23 teams around the league (and counting), it's already time to start looking ahead to Hot Stove season. There might not be another Juan Soto on the market this winter, but there are plenty of intriguing players set to be available for the highest bidder — and, fortunately for those of us who love drama, plenty of big-spending clubs who figure to be desperate to make a splash.
From the Yankees to the Mets to the Red Sox to the Braves to the Cubs and beyond, desperation figures to be the theme of this particular winter. And that, historically speaking, has led to some downright bonkers decisions in free agency. Who will those decisions benefit? And just how much money will be flying around this offseason?
To answer that question, it helps to know your history. So we've gone back through the last few offseasons to find appropriate points of comparison for each of the top 10 free agents on the market this winter, all the better to help figure out what the price range might be for the piece that could take your team over the top.
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1. OF Kyle Tucker
Estimate: Nine years, $342 million
Maybe I'll be proven wrong here, but I find myself looking at recent history and drifting more and more towards the lower end of Tucker's range of outcomes in free agency.
Right off the bat we can dispense with Juan Soto's market-shattering contract from last winter; not only is Soto a more accomplished hitter at a significantly younger age, but his free agency also represented something larger than just a baseball player in a way that Tucker has no chance to replicate. So from there, we're left with something between $30 million (the AAV of the 12-year, $365 million deal Mookie Betts signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers ahead of the 2021 season) and $40 million (the AAV of the nine-year, $360 million deal Aaron Judge signed with the Yankees two offseasons ago).
I'd be shocked if Tucker clears Judge, who was not only a more impactful player but who also had New York over a barrel that winter. The Betts comp is an interesting one: Mookie was a year younger than Tucker will be this offseason, but while he was certainly a better fielder, Tucker has the more impressive offensive track record. Combine that with how the market has grown of late, and how few position-player options there are this winter, and I think he'll easily outpace that number, landing somewhere north of $35 million per year. But $400 million+ feels hard to imagine right now.
2. 3B Alex Bregman
Estimate: Five years, $160 million
Bregman (and Scott Boras) reportedly had his sights set on clearing Manny Machado's $32 million AAV last winter, and while he technically did that, it was on a short-term deal designed to get him back to free agency as quickly as possible. The closest anyone came on a long-term contract was the six-year, $170 million offer the Detroit Tigers reportedly made, which Bregman seemed close to accepting before pivoting to Boston at the 11th hour.
What happens this time around? Bregman had another nice season overall, but he spent a chunk of it on the IL with a quad injury and struggled at the plate upon returning to the lineup. Still, he remains a rock-solid hitter and excellent defender at the hot corner, and I think he'll fare a bit better on the open market this time around.
On paper, the best comp here would probably be Matt Chapman, who signed a six-year, $150 million deal ahead of his age-31 season. Bregman is a year older, but he's also a better hitter — and more importantly, he'll have more leverage to work with that Chapman could've dreamed of. After trading Rafael Devers in the middle of the season, the Red Sox cannot afford to let Bregman walk, and I think that plays a big roll in getting him over the $30 million mark after all. Plus, a five-year deal only takes him through his age-36 season, and it's not hard to imagine him still being at least a useful player at that point in his career.
3. DH Kyle Schwarber
Estimate: Four years, $110 million
Boy, it's amazing what a contract year can do for you. Schwarber getting nine figures would've seemed a bit far-fetched back in the spring, but now it seems more and more like that's where we're headed.
It's a bit difficult to make historical comparisons to such a unique player, given his age (he'll be entering his age-33 season next year) and lack of defensive or base-running value. Boston's five-year, $110 million deal with J.D. Martinez might be an interesting place to start, though: Martinez was predominantly a DH for the Red Sox and profiled as a somewhat similar hitter, although he was three years younger and a righty rather than a lefty.
The age factor has me bumping this down to a four-year deal, but I think the overall number feels about right. He's a lefty whose offensive game seems to be only getting better, and it doesn't hurt that Philly will likely be desperate to keep him.
4. SS Bo Bichette
Estimate: Seven years, $185 million
Bichette is an easier player to find comps for than some of the names above him on this list. The past few offseasons have seen several big shortstop deals: notably Willy Adames, who signed a seven-year, $182 million deal with the Giants last winter, and Dansby Swanson, who went to the Cubs for seven years and $177 million ahead of the 2023 season.
Bichette comes with significant defensive concerns; it's an open question how long he'll be able to even stay at shortstop defensively, and how open to a change he'll actually be. But he's entering his age-28 season next year, a full year younger than Adames was, and he's the better hitter by a not-insignificant margin. The defense might hurt his market a little bit, but there are really no other viable shortstop options set to hit the market via free agency or trade, and in the end I'd be shocked if he doesn't become the next to land a seven-year deal that nears but doesn't quite reach $200 million.
5. 1B Pete Alonso
Estimate: Four years, $100 million
Good luck figuring this one out. Alonso is going to play darn near every day, and he's going to hit 35 homers at a minimum. Beyond that, though, the questions arise: He's one of the worst defensive first basemen in the sport but famously resistant to the idea of being a full-time DH, he's a right-handed hitter and he'll be 31 years old in December. There's a reason why he was left to languish on the market last winter, and I'm not sure that all that much has changed since.
And the recent historical comps don't feel like much help here. He's a vastly different (and older) player than Matt Olson, who got eight years and $168 million from the Braves at age 27. Freddie Freeman was 32 when he got six years and $162 million from the Dodgers, but he's 1) a lefty, 2) a substantially better athlete than Alonso and 3) came with a longer and more impressive track record as a hitter. It's hard to see him clearing $20 million on a long-term deal; Christian Walker signed with Houston at 3/$60 million last winter, and while he's older and not the same caliber of hitter as Alonso, he's a much better defender.
Alonso has already confirmed that he'll turn down a $24 million player option for 2026, and he and Boras will undoubtedly look to top that numer in free agency. I think he can do it, but only barely, and only on a shorter-term deal than he'd likely want. He might just go the Bregman route again, cashing in short-term deals full of opt-outs at a higher AAV.
6. LHP Framber Valdez
Estimate: Six years, $156 million
The market for lefties was reset last winter by Blake Snell (5/$182 to the Dodgers) and Max Fried (8/$218 to the Yankees). But Valdez is a year older than Fried and hasn't shown the all-world upside of Snell, so he's unlikely to reach those heights in terms of either years or AAV.
Carlos Rodon is a more interesting comp, younger than Valdez (who's about to turn 32) but with red flags that still depressed his market just a tad. He wound up signing with New York for $162 million over six years, and I think Valdez should find a similar deal this winter. He doesn't miss a ton of bats, he's entering his age-32 season and there are real questions about how he'll fit into a clubhouse. But lefties like this don't grow on trees, and a long-term deal worth $25 million-plus per feels right.
7. OF Cody Bellinger
Estimate: Six years, $150 million
If Bellinger does indeed opt out of the $25 million player option he has for next season, he and Boras will undoubtedly be looking to clear that number on the open market. Will they get there?
I'm going to go out on a limb and say yes, if only barely. Bellinger has now put up three solid to very good offensive seasons in a row, putting his struggles with the Dodgers firmly in the rearview. At this point, you can pencil him in as an above-average bat pretty confidently, and he also happens to be one of the better defensive outfielders in the sport.
He also just turned 30, meaning that a six-year deal would take him through the rest of his prime without leaving a team on the hook for too much of his decline. (Even if he has to play first base at age 35 or 36, he should still be a positive there.) And if you want an outfielder but lose out on Tucker, who else is there, much less with the ability to play center field? Trent Grisham? Ramon Laureano? Harrison Bader? In the end, I think Bellinger gets the sort of deal he's looking for.
8. RHP Dylan Cease
Estimate: Six years, $138 million
Cease's inconsistencies, and the down year he slogged through in 2025, mean that he won't get anywhere near the six-year, $210 million deal that Corbin Burnes signed with the Diamondbacks last winter, currently the third-biggest contract on the books for a right-handed pitcher behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Gerrit Cole. But I do think that Cease's underlying skill set, and the fact that he might be the single most durable starter in baseball right now, figures to land him in that next bucket, at or near $25 million per year.
Yes, the top-line numbers were ugly this season. But he still missed bats at a truly elite rate, and he's hardly ever been injured in his career, arguably the two most important parts of a pitcher's profile for teams weighing an offer in free agency. He was also a Cy Young candidate as recently as 12 months ago, and we've yet to see what he might be capable of in a more modern pitching development regime after spending his career with the White Sox and Padres.
Tyler Glasnow was similarly a righty with big stuff but red flags in his profile; if anything, he was a riskier investment than Cease given the fact that he'd yet to crack 120 innings in a big-league season. But the Dodgers still gave him $136 million over five years, and I think Cease can do something similar on the open market.
9. LHP Ranger Suarez
Estimate: Five years, $125 million
We went over the recent mega-deals given to lefty starters in the Valdez section above, and many of them apply to Suarez as well. The difference is that Suarez is almost two full years younger than Valdez, and also that he doesn't have as long and as consistent a track record of success.
In the end, I think the latter will keep Suarez's contract just a tick below Valdez's. The fact that he has just two star-level seasons as a full-time starting pitcher figures to give some teams at least a little bit of pause, even if this is a skill set and a player well worth investing in.
10. RHP Michael King
Estimate: Four years, $100 million
King is such a difficult case to sort through. If he'd stayed healthy this season, he might be the single most coveted pitcher on the market, a 30-year-old who went from dynamo reliever with the Yankees to Cy Young candidate with the Padres in 2024. Unfortunately, injuries sent this season going sideways, and he threw just 73.1 innings of up-and-down ball.
He did return in September, however, and while he didn't start a postseason game for San Diego, he looked pretty darn good in relief in Game 3 against the Cubs, striking out the side in his lone inning of work. He's entering his age-31 season, and by all accounts he's finally back healthy after dealing with both a pinched nerve and a knee issue this year. Those are red flags, to be sure, but his upside is so immense — and the pitching market so thin — that I think he could reach or exceed $25 million a year.
If that sounds rich, remember that Sean Manaea just hit that last year with a three-year, $75 million contract with the Mets, and he hasn't shown nearly the sort of ceiling we've seen out of King. The injury history will keep the years in check, but the AAV will be there.