The MLB Postseason structure has come under some criticism in recent years, as one could argue it favors the lower seeds unduly. While 12 total teams make it to October, only eight actually compete in the first round. The top four — the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds in the AL and NL — receive automatic Divisional Series bids, which means a first-round bye.
While there are sports where a bye week is extremely beneficial (cough, cough, football), it's a bit more challenging in baseball. These teams play almost every day or every other day for months, for 162 regular-season games. That means the buildup of a certain rhythm and routine. To suddenly sit on ice for several days while your next opponent keeps up the day-to-day grind of actual live baseball is a real mental and physical hurdle.
Is it actually a meaningful disadvantage to receive a bye week? Probably not, as it does give you fewer opportunities to lose. You're automatically a step closer to the World Series, which really matters. But it is a unique challenge and we have, in the past, seen top seeds that just look lethargic compared to their more finely tuned opponents.
For the top four seeds in this year's postseason — the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners in the AL, the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies in the NL — here is how each group can make the most of their downtime and mitigate any ill-effects of this brief repreive.
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Brewers need to settle their rotation questions and determine Rhys Hoskins' future
The big question surrounding Milwaukee right now is Brandon Woodruff's status for the NLDS. The talented righty was placed on the 15-day IL back on Sept. 18 after he suffered a right lat strain in a bullpen session. That made him eligible to rejoin the roster on Oct. 3, a day before Milwaukee's NLDS stint begins. But Pat Murphy has remained vague in his assessment of Woodruff's health, leaving serious doubt as to availability.
Here is how MLB.com's Adam McCalvy laid out the situation:
"So, I can’t exactly answer what is going on there, except to say that all of the parties involved -- Woodruff, his surgeon, the Brewers and their doctors -- are taking their time to make sure everyone is on the same page about what they want to say about his chances of pitching again this season. It's almost certainly complicated, because with any player who suffers a late-season injury, there's the will to want to come back and play, and the risk for the rest of his career associated with that"
I think the correct takeaway here is that Woody is not pitching in the NLDS. But the extra time off can't hurt, so just maxing out his recovery during this break in paramount.
Otherwise, the Brewers need to make a few decisions on the roster front. Should Milwaukee bring 12 or 13 pitchers into October? The answer depends on your Rhys Hoskins opinion. The veteran first baseman barely played down the stretch upon returning from injury. Instead, the Brewers leaned on midseason acquisition Andrew Vaughn, sprinkling in lefty Jake Bauers.
Hoskins logged 10 at-bats in the month of September, almost exclusively as a pinch-hitter. He's still an above-average hitter — .748 OPS and 109 wRC+ on the season — but the Brewers are deeper than most teams. If Hoskins is just getting squeezed out of the lineup completely, there's a strong case for icing him in the NLDS and carrying an extra bullpen arm, just in case.
Phillies need to get Trea Turner up to speed
Trea Turner spent three weeks on ice in September due to a hamstring injury. Hammies are tricky, but Turner returned to the lineup for Philadelphia's season finale on Sept. 28, going 0-for-2 in a brief cameo against the Twins. It's only natural that a big focus this week should be getting Turner up to speed.
The $300 million shortstop enjoyed an incredible season for the Phillies before going on the shelf. He won the NL batting title (.304) and finished with an .812 OPS and 36 stolen bases, all while putting together a Gold Glove-caliber campaign at shortstop. Turner silenced a ton of doubters and reminded the Phillies why he received such a massive contract in the first place.
Turner was Philadelphia's best player on balance this season, with the possible exception of Kyle Schwarber. It depends on what you value. But he is undeniably essential for the postseason, no matter how you slice it. Turner doesn't slug it a ton, but he gets on base, runs with speed and smarts and he's a lockdown defender in the middle of the infield.
If the Phillies want to topple the Dodgers, Turner will need to be on point against his former team. This offense has a maddening history of going cold in October. Turner is the head of the snake: If he's piling up leadoff singles and giving Schwarber and Bryce Harper a runner to drive in, the Phillies can hang with anyone.
Blue Jays need to get Bo Bichette right and figure out the roster bubble
Bo Bichette remains questionable to return from the IL as he rehabs from a knee sprain. Toronto would have been without him for the Wild Card series, had their grip on the No. 1 seed slipped. This extra time was a huge blessing if it means Bichette is back in the lineup for Game 1 against the winner of New York-Boston. But don't get your hopes up yet, Blue Jays fans: Toronto is not going to take wild risks if Bichette is not up to speed.
Toronto really needs Bichette for a deep run, though. While Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer are enjoying magical seasons, the opponents on the docket — New York and Seattle, plus Los Angeles and Philadelphia in the NL — are loaded with high-end bats and, more importantly, seasoned veterans who know their way around the postseason. Guerrero and Bichette are green by those standards. Springer has a strong résumé in October, but he can't do it alone.
Beyond Bichette, the Blue Jays will need to figure out the roster margins, like any other team. The scouting department shouldn't need to dig deep for intel on Boston or New York, as Toronto knows both clubs intimately. But how does the bench unit shake out? If Bichette misses time, is Andrés Giménez a lock to start at shortstop, or does Toronto consider a more experienced bat like Isiah Kiner-Falefa? In the bullpen, it's fair to wonder if Jeff Hoffman is truly the best option to close games. In the rotation, Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber are locks atop the rotation, but who commands that third start? Max Scherzer has experience in spades, but rookie Trey Yesavage made a strong impression in just three MLB starts and could present more upside.
These are all questions John Schneider, Toronto's coaching staff and the scouting department will mull over in the next couple days. It helps to know your opponent so well, whether it's New York or Boston. But the opponent also knows Toronto well, so Schneider will need to break out new tricks and put his absolute best foot forward.
Mariners need to figure out their ALDS rotation
The Mariners are a popular sleeper pick to win the American League, to the extent that the No. 2 seed can be considered a "sleeper." But there are questions Dan Wilson and the coaching staff need to answer, starting with the rotation.
Bryan Woo did not make his final scheduled start in the regular season due to pectoral inflammation. If the M's want to keep him on a five-day schedule and boost his recovery time, he'd be in line for a Game 2 start. That leaves Seattle scrambling, potentially, to select a different Game 1 starter, who also then becomes their hypothetical Game 5 starter.
Luis Castillo pitches well at home and has a lot of experience relative to his peers in the Seattle rotation, which could give him a leg up. Logan Gilbert is a more dynamic option, though, and Seattle could prefer to set him up for multiple NLDS starts, if that's how the cookie crumbles. So the Mariners need to figure out how exactly to deploy their deep rotation in a way that best serves Woo in his return from a weeks-long absence. Wilson expects Woo to be on the ALDS roster, but there is not a concrete timeline for his return as of yet.