Where Japan’s biggest stars could land in MLB free agency: Imai, Murakami, Okamoto

The free agent market this winter was already shaping up to be a fascinating one, with a bonafide star in Kyle Tucker at the top and plenty of big-name hitters — from Alex Bregman to Bo Bichette to Cody Bellinger to Pete Alonso to Josh Naylor — behind him. And that's not even touching on the pitchers, a list that includes Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez and Zac Gallen. There may not be another Juan Soto sweepstakes on tap, but what it lacks in quality it more than makes up for in quantity.

That's even more true now, as word broke this week that a trio of Japanese stars would all be looking to sign with Major League teams this offseason: Yakult Swallows slugger Munetaka Murakami, Yomiuri Giants captain Kazuma Okamoto and Seibu Lions righty Tatsuya Imai. All three are among the best players in NPB right now, all three are still smack in their primes and all three should give MLB teams plenty of reason to believe their games will translate across the Pacific.

Now, the only question is where all three of them might end up signing. There's plenty of money up for grabs this winter, and the possibilities are near-endless. Here's everything to know about what each player brings to the table, and where they'd fit best in the States.

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INF Munetaka Murakami

2025 NPB Stats: .273/.379/.663, 22 HR, 47 RBI, 64 SO, 32 BB (56 games)
NPB Career Stats: .270/.394/.557, 246 HR, 647 RBI, 977 SO, 614 BB (892 games)

The most well-known name of the Japanese big three, Murakami has established himself as one of the best power hitters not just in the NPB today but of all-time. He's cleared 30 homers in five of his first six seasons as a pro, including a whopping 56 back in 2022. The slugging ability is real, and it is spectacular:

But for all his obvious assets, there are equally obvious holes in Murakami's game, ones that make him a tricky evaluation — and a tricky fit on an MLB roster.

Start with the defense: Murakami has gotten weaned off of third base in Japan already, and will almost certainly be a full-time first baseman or DH in the States. That puts a ton of pressure on his bat to deliver value, and it's an open question whether his contact issues — his strikeout rates have always been ugly, and would likely get even worse against big-league stuff — will allow him to access that power in games. If it all clicks, there are some Rafael Devers-lite outcomes on the table here. But there's also a world in which he looks like late-period Joey Gallo, and that should keep his price at bay.

So, where could he end up? Interestingly, the Dodgers don't feel like a great match here: Even if L.A. moves on from Max Muncy, Murakami can't be an everyday third baseman, and DH (Ohtani) and first base (Freddie Freeman) are occupied. The Red Sox are a team to watch here, with question marks at both spots and an ideal park for righty power. The Tigers could use some pop, although it's hard to know where he'd play. And keep an eye on the Mariners as Seattle says goodbye to one or both of Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor.

Best fits: Red Sox, Mariners, Angels

1B/3B/OF Kazuma Okamoto

2025 NPB Stats: .327/.416/.598, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 33 SO, 33 BB (69 games)
NPB Career Stats: .277/.361/.521, 248 HR, 717 RBI, 796 SO, 481 BB (1,074 games)

Murakami's power has drawn most of the headlines, but there's a good argument to be made that Okamoto is the most appealing hitter coming to the States this offseason. He's got a far more well-rounded profile: While he can absolutely hit the ball out of the park (and his high pulled fly ball rate will definitely grab teams' attention), he balances it with a disciplined approach and strong contact skills. He ranks fourth in OBP and first in SLG among qualified NPB hitters over the last three years, and that's a combination worth paying attention to no matter the level of competition.

He's also a better defender than Murakami; while not a star with the glove, he can at least hold his own at the hot corner, with the ability to slide across to first or even play either corner outfield spot if needed. Most of his value will come from his bat, but he can at least do enough to allow interested teams the flexibility to put him at a variety of positions, making for a more comfortable projection as he makes the jump to the Majors.

That outfield ability means that the Dodgers could be in play here, although again it's unclear where he'd find regular playing time unless L.A. declines its option on Muncy. All the teams that fit with Murakami also fit with Okamoto, and you can toss in others like the Yankees (in left field), Tigers (at third base) and Padres (the outfield, first base or DH). And keep an eye on both the Mets and Phillies depending on how the offseason goes — the former could have an opening at the cold corner if Pete Alonso walks, while the latter has all sorts of potential openings based on how it handles Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos.

Best fits: Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Padres, Mariners

RHP Tatsuya Imai

2025 NPB Stats: 163.2 IP, 1.92 ERA, 45 BB, 178 SO, 0.892 WHIP, 5 CG, 3 SHO
NPB Career Stats: 963.2 IP, 3.15 ERA, 468 BB, 907 SO, 1.267 WHIP, 14 CG, 7 SHO

It's not all about the hitters, of course. Japanese aces have made the transition to the Majors look pretty effortless in recent years, and there's reason to believe Imai might be next in line. A two-time All-Star who struck out 17 batters in a start back in April, the righty has premium velocity (topping out in the high 90s) that he pairs with a power slider in addition to the usual pitch mix you see from NPB arms (i.e.: yes, he throws a splitter).

As you can see from those career walk and WHIP totals, command has been an issue for Imai over the course of his career. But it's worth noting that his walk rate has improved substantially of late, sitting at 7% this season — still just the 29th percentile in NPB, but worlds better than the double-digit mark he was working with previously. The fastball shape is conducive to whiffs and the secondary stuff should play; if he can throw enough strikes, he could blossom into a No. 2 or No. 3 starter in time, and he's still just 27 years old — two years younger than Shota Imanaga was when he signed his four-year, $53 million deal with the Cubs.

Unlike the two hitters on this list, it's not all that hard to find fits for Imai; show me a team that doesn't need starting pitching, and I'll show you a team that isn't serious about winning a World Series. The Blue Jays, Red Sox and Mets are teams that have dipped into the Japanese market previously and should be aggressive for rotation help this winter, and the Padres and Giants could loom as dark horses.

Best fits: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mets, Padres, Giants