Winning Game 1 of any postseason series is crucial. No team wants to play from behind, and in the Division Series in particular, winning Game 1 means you're already 33.3 percent closer to your goal of advancing to the League Championship Series. Winning Game 1 doesn't guarantee any given team a spot in the next round, but it certainly bolsters the odds.
With that in mind, the Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners will have to mount a comeback. Again, it isn't an impossible one, but it certainly is an improbable one. Some teams have an easier path to completing the comeback than others.
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4. Chicago Cubs
Heading into this series, I thought the Chicago Cubs had a legitimate shot of upsetting their division rivals, the Milwaukee Brewers. In hindsight, I might've underestimated Milwaukee.
Chicago's pitching is far from stellar, especially when considering Matthew Boyd pitched on three days' rest, but the Brewers scored nine runs, all of which came in the first two innings. I've said repeatedly how hard it is to string hits together in October, but the Brewers did just that for all nine of their runs. They didn't hit a single home run.
I question whether they'll be able to string hits together against elite pitching, but the Cubs, as impressive as they were in the Wild Card Series, just don't have elite pitching, especially with both Justin Steele and Cade Horton sidelined. I question whether the Brewers have the pitching behind Freddy Peralta to win games, but this Cubs offense has scored three runs or fewer in each of their four postseason games.
The Brewers might not be perfect, but the Cubs are one of the worst teams still standing. It's going to take a lot for Chicago to mount a comeback.
3. Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners were my World Series pick. I thought they were going to eliminate the Detroit Tigers with relative ease. Game 1 of this series would indicate otherwise. The Tigers, in what was a bullpen game for them after their Wild Card Series win, came to Seattle and defeated the Mariners 3-2. Seattle's stars showed up, as Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh combined for three hits, and they pitched very well, but they lost this game, and now Tarik Skubal looms.
Skubal has not pitched well against the Mariners this season, but he's also the best pitcher on the planet. I don't love Seattle's odds to win when he takes the ball, but I loved their odds to win the non-Skubal starts.
Defeating Skubal, which isn't impossible, would have Seattle in a decent spot even without home-field advantage. They're still the more talented team. Being down in the series entering a Skubal start, though, is not good, and that's a very real possibility. Detroit has two home games and two Skubal starts left. They need to win just two of those games. They're sitting pretty.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
Game 1 was nothing short of frustrating for the Philadelphia Phillies. Shohei Ohtani went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts and allowed three runs in his second inning of work, yet despite leading 3-0 and with Cristopher Sanchez in cruise control for much of the night, the Phillies lost Game 1 at home to the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
As frustrating as this loss was, Phillies fans shouldn't give up quite yet. I mean, this team is too talented. Losing Game 1, particularly at home, does hurt, but the Phillies still have quality arms, Jesus Luzardo and Ranger Suarez, looming for Games 2 and 3, respectively. If the Phillies get the same kind of starts from Luzardo and Suarez that they got from Sanchez, why can't they win? If Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper do what they're capable of instead of going 1-for-11 with six strikeouts as they did in Game 1, why can't they win?
This team is obviously in a rough spot, but the Dodgers are far from perfect, and the Phillies are still ultra-talented. If their stars perform like stars, nobody should be surprised to see this team appear in the NLCS.
1. New York Yankees
I'm never going to say a team can afford to lose Game 1 of a series, but if there was a team that could possibly afford to lose, it was the New York Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Toronto Blue Jays. This felt like the game the Jays had to have to win this series. Credit to them, they got it, and in blowout fashion at that, but I think the Yankees are still very much alive.
Since the Jays won the division over New York, the Yankees had to play in the Wild Card Series, putting their starting pitching for the ALDS in a bit of an uncomfortable position. Instead of using their ace, Max Fried, in Game 1, Luis Gil pitched, since Fried pitched on Tuesday. Gil, a pitcher who didn't even make New York's Wild Card Series roster, faced Kevin Gausman, the Jays' ace.
So to sum up, the Yankees were on the road in Game 1 and had their No. 4 starter face Toronto's ace. The Yankees were coming off an emotional series win over the Boston Red Sox, and the Blue Jays had a week of rest thanks to the bye they earned. Again, this was the game the Jays had to have.
The Yankees have Fried taking the mound on Sunday against Jays' rookie Trey Yesavage. A split at Rogers Centre would mean the Yankees would have stolen home-field advantage and would head back to the Bronx with the series deadlocked. I'd say the Yankees would be in a pretty good spot if that happens.