Starting ptiching depth is something that all 30 MLB teams tend to chase during the offseason. Looking at the names left on the free agent market as the 2026 season approaches, it feels like right-hander Lucas Giolito should be the next name off the board.
Giolito went 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA a season ago with the Boston Red Sox across 26 starts. On paper, this looks like a solid stat line and would typically draw heavy interest for teams exploring options for a top three starter. Under most circumstances, Giolito would most certainly would have landed a hefty contract by now, however in the world of heavy Sabermetrics, there is more underneath the surface.
Why is Lucas Giolito still on the free agent market?
As impressive as Giolito may have been in a loaded AL East a season ago, his projections for 2026 are not that attractive. Most projection sites have Giolito posting an ERA above 4.00 in this upcoming season. These predictions are built from more in-depth statistics.
All these "facts" and not one referring to his 19.7 K%, 4.17 FIP, or brutal 5.01 xERA
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 12, 2026
He will most defienely get an MLB contract, but its not surprising that teams are not rushing to sign Lucas Giolitto https://t.co/qGXMBf4KPu
With Giolito's actual ERA being nearly two entire points lower than his expected ERA and mediocre 19.7% strikeout rate, teams are likely passing on the right-hander because they feel like he simply got lucky a season ago.
This is not to say that Giolito will not have a job by Opening Day. As Thomas Nestico stated, he will land a Major League deal, but it will likely be way less than what most would have projected Giolito to sign for at the start of the offseason. For example, Spotrac projects Giolito to land a contract north of $20 million. That would be a surprise at this juncture.
Where will Lucas Giolito land in MLB free agency?
Teams will continue to weigh all their options before giving Giolito a chance, especially at his asking price. Eventually, that ask should come down, as Opening Day is right around the corner. These teams could use some rotation help, even if Giolito comes with some risk.
Boston Red Sox
Perhaps the most obvious landing spot for Giolito is to return to the Boston Red Sox. The only road block here is that Giolito is not used to being at the bottom of the rotation and that is almost certainly where he would be with solid options like Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Brayan Bello already on the big league roster.
This does leave one more spot in the rotation for the Red Sox to fill but Giolito will likely be looking for a bigger role and ultimately a bigger paycheck than what Boston would be willing to give him. This is something to keep an eye on in the next couple of weeks. If Giolito gets to a point where he feels like he has to settle to get a big league gig, we could very well see him return to Boston.
Atlanta Braves
Aside from Boston, the Atlanta Braves may actually be the most logical fit for Giolito. The Braves are currently experiencing some intense deja vu with the injury bug and need all the depth they can get. Acquiring Giolito could add some more experience to a fairly young staff and lengthen the rotation.
At the moment, Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and Reynaldo Lopez feel like the only guaranteed starters in the Braves rotation. Other arms like Bryce Elder are fighting for their opportunity following unfortunate injuries that have sidelined Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep and Joey Wentz.
The Elder experience has time and time again shown that it is simply not working and other options may not be MLB ready quite yet. Depending on the price, taking a chance on Giolito feels well worth it for Alex Anthopoulos and the Braves.
Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles had a more than disappointing 2025 season. With their talented young core, they expect to be back in the division race this upcoming campaign. Adding Giolito to their rotation would provide more depth and options for manager Craig Albernaz.
Currently, Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz, Zach Eflin and Dean Kremer fill out the O's rotation. The addition of Giolito would provide Albernaz with the opportunity to bump one of those to the bullpen if desired.
From the business perspective, going to the Orioles would be a dream for Giolito. If Baltimore were willing to take a risk on Giolito, they would likely plug him in at the top of the rotation and give him a bigger contract than other teams in the league would offer. The Orioles have so much young talent solidified in their lineup that is locked up for years to come that it has opened the door for them to be aggressive in the free agent market in situations exactly like this one.