Tarik Skubal is the most popular player in MLB and while it has a lot to do with his on-field accomplishments, Skubal is making waves this offseason. It's the final one he’ll spend under team control. That's important because he and the Detroit Tigers haven’t agreed on a long term contract and they’re $13 million apart in arbitration negotiations.
That number is historic in itself. So is Detroit's $19 million offer, one of the highest offers for a pitcher in arbitration. Skubal’s counter, via agent Scott Boras, is even more ambitious at $32 million. With the two sides still at odds, that means one side will win -- unless they settle before arbitration hearings begin Jan. 26. Whatever happens it will certainly reshape MLB and how elite players handle their arbitration talks.
The significance of Tarik Skubal’s historic arbitration counter
Boras makes a strong argument why Skubal deserves the highest arbitration contract ever signed by a player. No pitcher has ever won back-to-back Cy Young awards during his team control years like Skubal. Sure, his numbers aren’t better than that of Jacob deGrom’s, who has the highest raise at $9.6 million, but the individual accomplishments by Skubal more than justify his asking price.
After all, the arbitrator has to decide if the team’s argument is stronger than Skubal’s and when deciding, player accomplishments take center stage. Not only is Skubal justified, but it proves that the elite players should get paid like it, which is why arbitration exists. It lets the player make their argument and the team make theirs.
Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto have been awarded the highest arbitrations with $30 million and $31 million, respectively, in each of their final years. Based on how good Skubal is, is he not worth the highest arbitration dispute? If he’s not, then is he really worth $19 million, significantly less than what he should be paid this year?
Both sides have a point, the team is keeping themselves from overpaying when it could hurt them, yet settling for more than $19 million would reset the market. At least if the arbitrator decides to side with Skubal, it wasn’t the team that forced their hand.
Either way, this goes to show why arbitration matters. Skubal is allowed to demand a contract comparable to the highest paid pitchers in MLB, not just in team control, because he already has five years of service. No matter how this goes, it will reshape what the top players and their agents demand –- I’m looking at you, Paul Skenes.
Detroit only has itself to blame if it loses arbitration battle with Tarik Skubal
If the arbitrator sides with Skubal and the Tigers are forced to hand Skubal $32 million this upcoming season, they’ll only have themselves to blame. Skubal is probably worth every dollar he’s asking for, even if the club isn’t prepared to pay him like it. The fact is, they either pay him the money now or ultimately have to do it via a new contract. The past two seasons, Skubal has been baseball’s most elite arm, yet Detroit can’t sniff a World Series.
They knew they were going to have to make this decision at some point. If they didn’t want to pay him, they should have traded him already. It doesn’t make much sense to go through this, end up on the losing end of arbitration and still not go on a postseason run -- or ultimately lose him after the 2026 season anyway. Sure, that’s all speculation, but there’s nothing the Tigers have done that proves they’re any better than the last two seasons.
Maybe if Detroit raised their counter from $19 million to closer to $32 million, things wouldn't have gone this far. Even at $25 million, it’s still less than $32 and closer to what he feels he’s valued at. The last time Detroit had to cough up a massive arbitration contract, it was David Price in 2015. Thanks to inflation, the $19.75 million they paid Price isn’t the same now.
To be $13 million lower than what Skubal is asking for is insulting to him. That’s why regardless of what happens, Detroit brought this upon themselves. Now they’re going to pay the price, one way or the other.