The Seattle Mariners had a golden opportunity to punch their ticket to the ALCS on Wednesday. They were one win against the Detroit Tigers away from advancing, and even led 3-0 halfway through the game. A lack of offense from there and a massive bullpen implosion allowed the Tigers to win Game 4 and keep their season alive, setting the stage for a winner-take-all Game 5 in Seattle.
Sure, the Mariners are the home team, and they were great all year at T-Mobile Park. But the Tigers have Tarik Skubal, the soon-to-be back-to-back AL Cy Young winner, starting Friday's game on full rest.
With Skubal looming, it feels like the Tigers are the favorites to win Friday's must-win contest to advance to the League Championship Series. While that logic makes a whole lot of sense, though, this series is far from over.
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Tarik Skubal has been far from dominant against the Mariners
Skubal is the best in the world, but even the best in the world has their Kryptonite. Gerrit Cole was seen as one of, if not the best, starting pitcher in the world just a couple of years ago, but he seemed to always struggle against the Boston Red Sox. The Mariners are that team Skubal has struggled with this season.
He made two regular-season starts against Seattle this year, and combined to allow seven runs in 10.2 innings of work. He pitched better when he saw them earlier in this series, allowing just two runs on five hits in seven innings in Game 2, but that was the only time Skubal even completed six innings against Seattle.
Skubal twirling another gem should not be considered a sure thing. And to make matters worse, who knows what to expect from the team behind him?
Tigers offense is ultimate Game 5 X-Factor
Let's say Skubal duplicates or even improves on his Game 2 outing (neither is a sure thing). Are we sure the Tigers will score enough runs to win this game anyway? Their offense broke out in Wednesday's game, but they scored a combined nine runs in the first three games of this series, three of which came in the ninth inning of Game 3 when they were already trailing 8-1.
We saw this exact scenario play out in Game 2. The Tigers had all of the momentum after winning Game 1 and had Skubal going the following night, but even though Skubal pitched well, they managed to score just two runs and fell by a final score of 3-2.
The Mariners' pitching staff is as talented as anyone's in the American League, and all hands will be on deck for them. They're going to aggressively play matchups and will be a nightmare to hit against.
Skubal can throw a nine-inning shutout for all I care and this game can still go to extra innings, because the Tigers might be unable to score. Skubal can, and presumably will, limit the damage, but ultimately, there's only so much he can do. As great as he is, he can't pitch and hit like Shohei Ohtani.
Tigers need non-Skubal players to step up
Given the fact that this is a team sport, the Tigers will need their team to step up. Skubal has to play his role, of course, but even if he does, there's only so much he can do.
This means that their offense, with guys like Kerry Carpenter, Gleyber Torres and Riley Greene, must find a way to score runs. Their bullpen, led by Kyle Finnegan and Will Vest, must find a way to shut the game down if the Tigers are able to find a late lead.
The Mariners won the Skubal game in this series because the non-Skubal players didn't do enough. If those role players step up, there's a good chance the Tigers will advance. If they don't, or if Skubal doesn't do his job — both of which are very real possibilities — the Mariners will win this series. Neither path is close to guaranteed.