It might be overshadowed now that the Mason Miller trade just went down, but the Toronto Blue Jays made a major deadline deal of their own on Thursday morning, acquiring Shane Bieber from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for Khal Stephen, one of their top pitching prospects. Yes, there's another Bieber north of the border.
It's easy to see why the Jays made this deal. They sit in first place in the AL East, and have every reason to be ultra-aggressive at the deadline. There's a chance Bieber, a former Cy Young winner, has the highest ceiling of any starting pitcher that will get traded this summer. Getting a potential Game 1 starter for a postseason run is invaluable, and well worth Stephen.
With that being said, while Bieber's upside can't be ignored, it's important to note that he's coming off Tommy John surgery. Sure, he's looked good in his rehab assignment thus far, but he hasn't thrown a pitch in a big-league game in well over a year. Taking a risk this big when you're in Toronto's position is totally fine, but this has a chance to backfire in a huge way.
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Shane Bieber trade could backfire no matter how well he does
If Bieber looks like his old self, this is a major win for the Jays, but with a catch. Bieber performing well means that he almost certainly will decline his $16 million player option (which comes with a $4 million buyout). This means that the Jays could lose him along with both Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer, a pair of veterans on expiring contracts, to free agency.
If Bieber struggles or suffers an injury, well, the Jays will either be stuck with him on a $16 million contract for next season that they won't want to pay, or they will have given up Stephen, an emerging prospect, for two months of an underwhelming starting pitcher.
The Jays are obviously confident Bieber will be just fine based on what they gave up, but should they be? I mean, Sandy Alcantara looks like a shell of his former Cy Young self post-Tommy John. Spencer Strider has had some good moments this season, but even he's not quite as dominant as he once was. Sure, Bieber might revert to form next season, but by then, he might be wearing another uniform. These things take time, most often.
To sum up, if Bieber pitches well, there's a good chance the Jays will have him for just a couple of months and then watch him sign elsewhere. If he doesn't, the Jays will either be stuck with a pitcher they don't want on a fairly hefty one-year deal, or they will have just traded one of their top prospects for two months of an underwhelming rental.
If they win the World Series, nobody will care, and rightfully so. If they don't, one way or another, this can really backfire on the Jays, especially when taking into account the fact that we simply have no idea how well Bieber will pitch at the MLB level.
Blue Jays might've gifted Guardians their ideal Shane Bieber replacement
Say what you want about Cleveland's position player group, but if there's one thing they can do, it's develop pitching. Bieber is a prime example of that. Khal Stephen might be overshadowed by the likes of Trey Yesavage, Ricky Tiedemann and Johnny King, but he's had an outstanding season in his own right.
The Jays' 2024 second-round pick has a sparkling 2.06 ERA in 18 appearances (17 starts) and 91.2 innings of work. He's fanned over a batter an inning while issuing fewer than two walks per and surrendering a total of five home runs all year. What makes this even more impressive is that he began the year in Single-A, and then proceeded to dominate his way through that level and High-A before recently making the jump to Double-A - not bad, considering he didn't even throw a professional pitch until this season.
I'm not here to say Stephen is a future ace, but he's a really intriguing prospect. Trading him to a team that develops pitching as well as Cleveland for likely a couple of months of Bieber, who's as big of a risk as anyone, can really backfire.
I applaud Ross Atkins for taking a risk that not many general managers would take, but this one could end really poorly in more ways than one.