Advanced statistics are far from perfect, even if you’ll likely see and hear them mentioned frequently throughout this year’s World Series. Although the eye test still, and likely will, always work, there’s no denying that technology and overall acceptance regarding sabermetrics provide us a different perspective on just how special Los Angeles Dodgers two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, or which Toronto Blue Jays hitters might just be a tad overrated.
Whether or not you believe that analytics have made baseball better or worse is a matter of preference, though the reality is that they’re here to stay. Gone are the days of baseball card statistics like batting average or ERA being the determining factor in how fans and social media users evaluate a player’s effectiveness.
Ahead of Game 1, let’s take a look at how Dodgers and Blue Jays players grade out analytically. For this list, we’ve opted to use bWAR (Baseball-Reference) and fWAR (FanGraphs), largely because it’s interesting to see if one version significantly favors a player’s performance over the other — and we discovered some very intriguing things along the way.
Position | Players | bWAR | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|
C | Alejandro Kirk (Blue Jays) vs. Will Smith (Dodgers) | Smith (4.5) over Kirk (2.3) | Kirk (4.7) over Smith (4.1) |
1B | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) vs. Freddie Freeman (Dodgers) | Guerrero Jr. (4.5 bWAR) over Freeman (3.5) | Guerrero (3.9) tied with Freeman (3.9) |
2B | Andrés Giménez (Blue Jays) vs. Tommy Edman (Dodgers) | Giménez (1.1) tied with Edman (1.1) | Edman (1.2) over Giménez (1.0) |
3B | Ernie Clement (Blue Jays) vs. Max Muncy (Dodgers) | Clement (4.3) over Muncy (3.6) | Clement (3.2) over Muncy (2.9) |
SS | Bo Bichette (Blue Jays) vs. Mookie Betts (Dodgers) | Betts (4.8) over Bichette (3.4) | Bichette (3.8) over Betts (3.4) |
LF | Nathan Lukes (Blue Jays) vs. Enrique Hernández (Dodgers) | Lukes (1.9) over Hernández (0.1) | Lukes (1.8) over Hernández (-0.3) |
CF | Daulton Varsho (Blue Jays) vs. Andy Pages (Dodgers) | Pages (3.8) over Varsho (2.8) | Pages (4.0) over Varsho (2.2) |
RF | Addison Barger (Blue Jays) vs. Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers) | Barger (1.2) over Hernández (1.5) | Barger (2.2) over Hernández (0.6) |
DH | George Springer (Blue Jays) vs. Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | Ohtani (6.8) over Springer (4.8) | Ohtani (9.4) over Springer (5.2) |
Pitching staff | Blue Jays' staff vs. Dodgers' staff | Blue Jays (12.3) over Dodgers (10.6) | Dodgers (20.8) over Blue Jays (11.7) |
Some quick thoughts:
- You’ll quickly understand why we’ve listed both bWAR and fWAR here. Smith is worth over two more wins than Kirk using BWAR, but only 0.6 fWAR separates the two. Meanwhile, Betts has a 1.4 bWAR lead over Bichette, yet the latter owns a 0.4 fWAR advantage. Advanced statistics are strange — and fascinating — like that, and it’s an excellent reminder that analytics don’t always tell the whole story.
- How can the Dodgers’ pitching staff have nearly a 10.0 fWAR edge, yet trail the Blue Jays by almost 2.0 bWAR? You don’t need to have been a math major to be confused.
- Baseball-Reference really loves Vladimir Guerrero Jr., huh? At the same time, we’re sure that Enrique Hernández prefers bWAR to fWAR, which considers him the worst projected starter in this year’s Fall Classic.
- FanGraphs considers Addison Barger a full win better than Baseball-Reference does, and the opposite applies to Teoscar Hernández. Hmmm. It’d certainly be fitting if both players shine throughout the World Series.
What were your most significant takeaways from the WAR comparison? Let us know.