Team USA looked like the clear favorites to win the World Baseball Classic, yet they were a tiebreaker away from being eliminated before the knockout round even began. There's no disputing that Team USA has the talent to win the WBC, but should they still be considered the favorites to win it all? Let's dive in.
8. Korea
Previous rank: 9
Korea snuck into the knockout round thanks to winning a three-way tiebreaker with Australia and Chinese Taipei, but it's hard to envision them going much further. Bo Gyeong Moon leads the entire tournament with 11 RBI, players like Jung Hoo Lee and Do Yeong Kim should be feared, and it's very cool watching Hyun Jin Ryu pitch on the big stage, but does this team really have the talent to compete with the superpowers that remain alive in the tournament?
Getting to the knockout round was the expectation, and Korea accomplished that. Anything beyond that would be gravy.
7. Canada
Previous rank: 6
Canada advanced to the Quarterfinals for the first time ever in the WBC, and did so by impressively winning Pool A. Josh Naylor and Tyler O'Neill are big-time MLB players, and top prospect Owen Caissie has been Canada's best player in the tournament, so their lineup (assuming Caissie doesn't hit in the lower third of the order) is capable of scoring some runs. Pitching could be their downfall, though, making it hard to rank them any higher.
6. Puerto Rico
Previous rank: 8
No team pitched better in pool play than Puerto Rico. Some of that admittedly had to do with the competition they faced, but there's a lot of talent to like, from Seth Lugo to Elmer Rodriguez to Edwin Diaz closing games. Their issue is their lineup. They hit just one home run in pool play, and light-hitting Martin Maldonado leads their team with five RBI. Pitching can keep them in games, but holding the elite lineups down will be easier said than done, and I'm not convinced Puerto Rico has the lineup to keep pace.
5. Italy
Previous rank: 7
Italy might've been the most impressive team in pool play. They upset Team USA and Team Mexico, winning Pool B with relative ease. Vinnie Pasquantino broke out with three home runs in their pool-clinching game, young players like Sam Antonacci, Jac Caglianone and Andrew Fischer impressed, and pitchers Sam Aldegheri, Michael Lorenzen and Aaron Nola combined to allow no runs in 14.1 innings of work.
I'm not convinced the pitching will be that good as the tournament progresses, but Italy felt like an underdog worth taking seriously before the tournament began, and they're even better than most thought.
4. Venezuela
Previous rank: 4
Luis Arraez went 7-for-14 with two home runs and six extra-base hits in pool play. Yes, that Luis Arraez who seems to be solely focused on making contact, even if said contact is weak, has been racking up extra-base hits at will in the WBC for Venezuela. If Arraez keeps doing that in a lineup that already includes Ronald Acuña Jr., Maikel Garcia and Jackson Chourio, good luck keeping this team off the board.
Venezuela did fall short pitching-wise against the Dominican Republic, though, and while they have some talent, they might not have enough pitching to compete with the best of the best.
3. USA
Previous rank: 1
Team USA should be the favorites to win the whole thing given their roster, but it's hard to label them as such when they lost to Italy and came close to blowing a game against Mexico as well. Heck, I might even be overrating them by putting them into the top three. They have not played like a team capable of winning it all.
With that being said, the USA has Logan Webb, Paul Skenes and Nolan McLean slotted in to start its three elimination games. The lineup features the likes of Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh and Bobby Witt Jr. The bullpen has Mason Miller closing games and several high-end relievers in front of him. If Mark DeRosa prioritizes using his best players and figures out how important the games are right now, Team USA could easily win it all. If he treats the upcoming elimination games as if they're warm-ups, the USA might be done before the Semifinals.
2. Japan
Previous rank: 3
On one hand, Japan has the best player on the planet, Shohei Ohtani, and one of the best pitchers in the world, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, to lean on. Japan also went a perfect 4-0 in pool play and is the defending champion of this tournament. Japan even looked like the team to beat in its WBC opener when it defeated Chinese Taipei 13-0 in seven innings. On the other hand, they've looked beatable ever since.
They played close games against Korea and Australia after that, and while they beat Czechia 9-0 in their final pool play game, that contest was scoreless through seven frames. Japan has a ton of talent, and it obviously wouldn't be surprising in the slightest to see them win it all, but playing pretty close games in three of four contests in arguably the weakest pool of all doesn't inspire quite enough confidence to give them the No. 1 overall spot.
1. Dominican Republic
Previous rank: 2
Not only did the Dominican Republic go a perfect 4-0 in pool play, but they scored double-digit runs in three of the four contests, and the only time they didn't, they were able to defeat Venezuela, an elite team in its own right. The starting pitching might not be its biggest strength beyond Cristopher Sanchez, but the bullpen is fantastic, the lineup is absurd, and the vibes are off the charts.
The Dominicans slashed .313/.458/.672 with 13 home runs and 40 RBI in pool play, and it feels like those stats don't even do this lineup justice. They lead the tournament in virtually every statistical category, and have even walked 10 more times than they've struck out. The Dominicans had a lot to prove after a wildly disappointing early exit in the 2023 WBC, and they've done that and then some thus far. They should be viewed as the team to beat until they lose.
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