Yordan Alvarez injury is the straw that will finally break the Astros' back

Throughout an inconsistent summer that has the Houston Astros on the verge of finishing second in the AL West, the light at the end of the tunnel has always been All-Star slugger Yordan Alvarez’s eventual return from a broken bone in his hand.

Now, the Astros might begin their latest World Series chase with Alvarez sidelined again. Only three weeks after rejoining the big-league club, Alvarez suffered what manager Joe Espada called a “significant” left ankle sprain in Monday’s 6-3 victory over the rival Texas Rangers.

As of publication, the Astros had not placed Alvarez on the IL, though he was reportedly in a walking boot in the clubhouse on Tuesday. It is unclear whether Alvarez, who owns six home runs and a .797 OPS over 199 plate appearances this season but has been tearing the cover off the ball since returning from his hand injury, will return before the regular season ends.

Catcher Yainer Diaz started at DH on Tuesday and went 1-for-4 with an RBI double in Houston’s 6-5 win over Texas. MLB.com's Brian McTaggart suggested that the Astros could turn to various players, including Jose Altuve or rookie Zach Cole, at DH in Alvarez’s absence.

“I’m not asking them to put the Yordan Alvarez hat on,” Espada told reporters. “I want them to be themselves. I want them to be the best versions of themselves, and if we do that, we’re going to find ourselves competing and doing everything we can to win the division.”

Houston entered Wednesday trailing the surging Seattle Mariners by half a game in the AL West.

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Yordan Alvarez’s ankle injury could end the Astros’ World Series hopes

As a 13-time World Series champion once said, it ain’t over until it’s over. And in fairness to the Astros, we’re not officially putting a bow on their championship pursuit until they start cleaning out their lockers, whether it’s in the Wild Card Round or the World Series itself.

However, there are certain injuries that derail a team’s title hopes beyond repair. Take the 2012 New York Yankees, who lost All-Star shortstop Derek Jeter to a fractured ankle in Game 1 of the ALCS. The Detroit Tigers won that night and subsequently swept the Yankees, outscoring them 13-2 over the final three games.

The Yankees pitchers did their part in Games 2 and 3, limiting Detroit’s high-powered offense to five runs. However, it quickly became apparent that Jeter’s absence, both on and off the field, had a profound impact on the Yankees’ lineup and morale. Remember, the Yankees were already without future Hall of Fame closer Mariano Rivera, who suffered a torn ACL several months earlier.

Losing Alvarez, who averaged 34 home runs, 31 doubles, 96 RBI and a .958 OPS from 2021-24, is a monumental blow. Alvarez is also a lifetime .294 postseason hitter with 28 extra-base hits and a .944 OPS in 60 games.

Can the Astros survive Alvarez’s absence? Of course they can. But will they? That depends on how much faith you have in Houston’s overall offense, especially when they’ve narrowly outscored opponents 119-112 in September. The Astros remain without third baseman Isaac Paredes, who has been out since July 19 with a hamstring strain; Paredes opted out of surgery and hopes to return before the regular season ends. Perhaps most troubling is that Alvarez was the lone impact lefty in Houston's lineup, one that has struggled mightily against right-handed pitching all year long.

The Astros have done an admirable job keeping their head above water in the AL West through a litany of injuries this season. (You could form a pretty decent pitching staff just from the arms that Houston has had on the IL at various points.) Those injuries made Alvarez's return even more crucial, especially if other big names like Christian Walker and Carlos Correa aren't going to pick up the slack. This team was going to need more offense to get where it wanted to go in October, but that gets much harder now.

However, the Astros have surprised us plenty of times over the past decade, so maybe we should expect to see another championship parade in Houston this November. We’ll just have to wait and see if Alvarez will be healthy enough to join them.