The Moonshot: Braves, Mets, Yankees, Dodgers and the new MLB power structure
Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.
Which team wins more games over the next decade — the Yankees or the Mets?
Zachary Rotman: I think Juan Soto answered this for everyone. The money that the New York Mets offered certainly helped steer him to Queens, but do we really think he would’ve chosen the Mets over the New York Yankees had the Mets not offered him much of a chance to win in the future? Not only is the Mets farm system better than the Yankees, but their owner has shown a clear willingness to spend an absurd amount of money, and their core is younger than the Yankees. Francisco Lindor, Kodai Senga, and Brandon Nimmo are 31. Edwin Diaz is 30. Mark Vientos is 25. Francisco Alvarez is 23. The Yankees have some young pieces too, but Aaron Judge (32), Carlos Rodon (32) Gerrit Cole (34), and Giancarlo Standon (35) aren’t exactly spring chickens.
Adam Weinrib: I know everyone expects me to zag and say “The Yankees” here, but…yes, I will do that, that’s exactly what I’ll do. Steve Cohen may or may not have sold Juan Soto on the “family” angle of the Mets’ operation and gifted him a suite/ridded his life of that pesky Yankee Stadium security guard, but what he definitely did is pay him $45 million extra. Bigger signing bonus. $55 million AAV at the age of 41. Soto intended to make the most money he possibly could. M-O-N-E-Y. He got it. Cohen has the most free-wheeling spending power of any owner, and Soto can trust that he’ll flesh out the roster around him moving forward, but as of now, the Mets are missing Pete Alonso and their entire rotation after a season that persisted mostly on the absolute peak version of Francisco Lindor and ~vibes~.
Securing Soto is a coup. Now comes the tough part — there will never be another Soto again. No one else you can pay $800 million to and forego critical thinking skills. Cohen’s other top-dollar expenditures have resulted in paying people to leave (Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander) and looking for injury loopholes to void mistakes after getting cold feet (Carlos Correa). There’s still a ways to go before the Mets establish themselves as the preeminent national brand the Yankees are and always have been, and New York’s other guys haven’t finished under .500 since 1992. Every team has down years. The Yankees never do. A reload may seem difficult to fathom in the immediate wake of Soto’s earth-shattering decision, yet somehow, it always happens. The Mets will alternate dominance and doldrums. The steady Yankees will win out in the end.
Chris Landers: Maybe this is just because I’m hopped up on copium, especially in the wake of Max Fried’s signing, but I’ll take the Yankees as well. Soto is an incredible coup, and it’s clear that Steve Cohen’s largesse and David Stearns’ program-building acumen make for one happy marriage. But I don’t think people appreciate just how many question marks there still are around this Mets pitching staff, and while New York still has time to change that, they’re running out of options by the hour. Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes are worthy gambles, but they’re still gambles, and we haven’t even gotten to the bullpen yet. I think the Mets will win more games than the Yankees in 2025, but Adam’s point about track record is a salient one: The Bombers haven’t finished with a losing record in over 30 years, and the Soto bombshell has people overstating the talent gap between the two just a bit.
Terrence Jordan: The Yankees are always at least pretty good, but on the rarer occasion when the Mets have made a run, New York shows itself to be a Mets town. That eats at Yankees fans, and it’s been compounded by losing out on Soto. When comparing the two teams, let’s not use a 30-year sample size that mostly includes the Wilpon years. The whole point of the Soto signing is that it’s a new day in Flushing, and the Mets are no longer content to be the little brother in this rivalry. Are there holes on the roster? Absolutely. But I trust Cohen and David Stearns to fill them with quality players. Stearns hit big on buy-low guys like Luis Severino and Sean Manaea last year. It’s reasonable to think that in Montas and Holmes, he can do it again. Will the Mets win more games than the Yankees next year? I’m not sure they will. The NL East is hell and the team isn’t a finished product. For the next decade though, expect Yankees fans to be talking about the past while Mets fans are celebrating the present and the future.
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No matter what happens next, Juan Soto will be THE most impactful move of the offseason. What will turn out to be second?
Zachary Rotman: The New York Yankees might’ve lost out on Juan Soto, but they’re far from done.If anything, losing Soto might convince Brian Cashman to be more aggressive than we’re accustomed to seeing him. The Max Fried signing proves that might indeed be the case. Fried is a frontline arm more than capable of being a No. 2 behind Gerrit Cole in a World Series rotation. Yes, they need to add some bats to the mix, but adding Fried to Cole (and other solid arms) gives the Yankees a chance to make another deep run.
Chris Landers: Garrett Crochet has gotten a bunch of attention lately, but I still don’t think it’s enough. You can make a good argument that the White Sox lefty has the best pure stuff in all of baseball, and he’s on a team-friendly deal for two more years. So where will he end up? The pressure continues to mount on Craig Breslow and the Red Sox, and I think eventually they’ll crack and offer up one of the big four (Marcelo Mayer, perhaps?) to finally land a big name.
Terrence Jordan: With the possible exception of Corbin Burnes’ eventual deal, I think we may have already seen it when Blake Snell signed with the Dodgers. Snell had a dreadful start to last season, due in no small part to signing so late. After the All-Star break though, he was nigh on unhittable. Now he’s locked and loaded well before Christmas on the defending champs. The Dodgers were inevitable last year, and there’s every reason to think they’ll be even better in 2025. If Snell stays healthy, he could win 20 games for the second time in his career.
The Dodgers are the defending champions and added Blake Snell. The Mets made the NLCS and then added Juan Soto. Who goes into next season as the third-best team in the National League?
Zachary Rotman: Even with the moves that the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets made, have we forgotten about the Atlanta Braves? Yes, they didn’t come close to meeting expectations in 2024, but virtually everyone missed substantial time at some point due to injury. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider might begin the year on the shelf, but they’ll be back sometime early on. Pairing their returns with bounceback seasons from guys like Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Michael Harris II (to name a few), they might leapfrog teams like the Dodgers and Mets to the top of the National League standings. In fact, the Braves should be favored to reclaim their crown in the National League East.
Adam Weinrib: The New York Mets … are the fourth- or fifth-best team in the National League (sunglasses emoji guy, “CSI” theme). Give me the San Diego Padres in second, the full-strength Braves in third, and the Mets and Phillies, depending on future roster construction, slugging it out for Wild Card spots.
Chris Landers: Maybe this makes me a contrarian, but I’ll take the Phillies here. The Braves have far too many health questions for me to give them the nod, and I think the Padres could be in for a (small) step back if they don’t reel in Roki Sasaki this winter. (The team is already floating the idea of trading away Dylan Cease.) Philly has among the most rock-solid rotations in the sport, and the offense’s struggles have been greatly exaggerated by how last season ended. I think Dave Dombrowski has one big move up his sleeve, and I think Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and the gang will be ready to eat.
Terrence Jordan: I bleed blue and orange, but even I have to agree that the Mets, despite making it to the NLCS and signing Soto, are nowhere near a lock to be the second-best team in the National League. Last season was something straight out of a fairy tale. Everything went right for the Amazins, and still they didn’t clinch a playoff spot until the final day of the regular season. The Braves lost Max Fried but will get back Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna, among others, while the Phillies still have the best staff in the league. All three teams will be locked in a battle of mutually-assured destruction all year. Give me the Phillies to win the division, the Mets to finish second, and the Braves to take third, which, with all due respect to the Brewers and Padres, would make the Mets the third-best team in the NL.
Robert Murray Notes:
- Free-agent infielder Christian Walker is engaged with multiple teams, including the Washington Nationals.
- A Corbin Burnes decision could come by the end of the week.
- The market for KBO Pitcher of the Year Kyle Hart is robust with 18 MLB teams and multiple NPB expressing interest.
- Look for the Texas Rangers to continue scouring the market for bullpen help.
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