The Moonshot: Hot seat GMs, small-market sleepers, next record-breaking contract
Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.
High-payroll teams have (for the most part) dominated free agency so far this winter. Which small-to-mid-market MLB team could surprise us in the weeks to come?
Terrence Jordan: The A’s shocked the baseball world by signing Luis Severino to a three-year, $67 million contract earlier this month, but it was for a good reason, as it was reported that they needed to increase their spending in order to avoid having a grievance filed against them by the MLBPA. The A’s still need to splurge some more to get above $100 million in payroll, and given the fact that they’re a) not going to be competitive, and b) not going to be playing in a major league park until 2028, it will take another overpay or two to convince free agents to sign. Expect a random shock signing in the coming weeks.
Zachary Rotman: The Atlanta Braves have been quiet. Perhaps too quiet. Sure, a big reason that their 2024 season wound up being as disappointing as it was had to do with injuries, but that doesn’t excuse them from doing nothing in the offseason. So far, the biggest addition that they’ve made has been Brian De La Cruz, while watching players like Max Fried, Travis d’Arnaud, Jorge Soler depart. The Braves likely won’t make a major splash in free agency, but Alex Anthopoulos always finds a way to pull off one or two heists per offseason in the trade market. It feels as if it’s a matter of when, not if, he’ll strike on that front, and who he’ll end up acquiring.
Chris Landers: My heart wants to put the Detroit Tigers here, but Scott Harris seems physically allergic to throwing money around, so instead I’ll point everyone to the Arizona Diamondbacks. It seems like ancient history now, but this team won 89 games last year, only missing out on the playoffs thanks to a three-way tiebreaker with the Mets and Braves (and some very bad weather luck on the season’s final weekend). The team spent a record $175 million in payroll last year, and it doesn’t sound like any belt-tightening is coming around the corner, meaning there’s some money to be spent. This core remains very solid, and don’t be surprised if GM Mike Hazen comes out of nowhere to make a splash or two in the coming weeks.
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The MLB Winter Meetings have come and gone. Which front office executive needs to make a big move the most, especially if they hope to avoid the hot seat?
Terrence Jordan: David Stearns of the Mets and Jed Hoyer of the Cubs have already appeased their respective fanbases by acquiring Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker. Likewise for Buster Posey, who made a splash as the Giants’ new president of baseball operations by signing Willie Adames. I’m going to go with Brian Cashman, who still has work to do for the Yankees after losing Soto to his crosstown rival. Cashman has been active in signing Max Fried and trading for Cody Bellinger. That’s a good start, but it’ll still take more than that to lessen the sting of allowing Soto to leave the Bronx.
Zachary Rotman: The answer has to be Ross Atkins, right? The Toronto Blue Jays won just 74 games last season, and have once again failed to lure a major free agent north of the border. They were in on Juan Soto and watched him sign elsewhere. They were in on Max Fried only to watch him land in their division. They’re in on Corbin Burnes now, but who knows if he’s interested in joining the Blue Jays? Atkins not only has to add talent to the roster, but the pressure is on when it comes to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and his much-needed extension. An argument can (and probably should) be made that he should’ve been fired by now, but if Atkins fails to make this team considerably better and fails to extend Guerrero, it only becomes harder to justify keeping him around.
Chris Landers: Zach already covered Ross Atkins, so instead I’ll nominate his division rival, Orioles GM Mike Elias. With a new billionaire owner on board and a second straight disappointing exit from the postseason, it seemed like this was finally set to be the winter where the O’s got serious about supplementing its homegrown core with some starry signings. Instead, Baltimore has done … more or less nothing this offseason, adding Tyler O’Neill and Gary Sanchez to the lineup but failing to address the pitching staff in any meaningful way. Corbin Burnes seems long gone at this point, and barring some other major move, I’m not sure how this team stacks up with the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East – which could lead to some very uncomfortable conversations 12 months from now.
Juan Soto’s contract was massive – $765 million plus incentives to be exact. Who will be the next player to break that mark and why?
Terrence Jordan: The right answer is that it’s probably some 15-year-old Japanese kid that nobody knows about yet, but if we’re going with someone that’s already in the majors, give me Elly De La Cruz. Most of the game’s biggest stars will be too old to command a record-setting contract when they re-enter free agency, but Cruz will only be 27 by time he’s ready to cash in. His combination of power and speed has already made him one of the most electric players in baseball, and if he can continue to grow, the sky’s the limit for his next payday.
Zachary Rotman: I’m going to go with Gunnar Henderson solely because he’s set to hit free agency one year before Elly De La Cruz. We can argue all day about who’s better, but we can’t argue that they’re going to get paid when they hit free agency. While their teams would presumably love to extend them sooner rather than later, they are both represented by Scott Boras - the agent who is known to push his clients toward free agency. Notably, Juan Soto turned down a $440 million extension offer years ago and bet on himself. Based on the deal he ended up signing as a free agent, that couldn’t have worked out any better. Henderson might not be Soto with the bat, but he’s coming off a 9.1 bWAR season (Soto’s career-high in a single season is 7.9 bWAR). He’ll be 27 years old - just one year older than Soto - when he hits free agency. Given the position he plays, the fact that he should only get better, and that prices only seem to rise, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him break the mark Soto set.
Chris Landers: I think the odds are heavily against anyone breaking Soto’s mark any time soon; Soto is a unicorn – he just turned 26! – and teams are locking up their bright young talent earlier than ever before. (Curse the Brewers for keeping Jackson Chourio off the market for the next decade.) If I had to pick somebody, though, give me Elly De La Cruz: His game hasn’t totally caught up to his tools yet, but he just put up a 5-win season at age 22, and it feels like he’s still just scratching the surface. If it all comes together, the sky is the limit, and he’ll still be only 27 when he hits free agency. (And if you want a truly off-the-wall pick, how about Red Sox prospect Roman Anthony, a do-it-all outfielder who could make his MLB debut before his 21st birthday in 2025?)
Robert Murray notebook
- The Yankees remain in contact with free-agent first baseman Paul Goldschmidt as the first base market has stalled.
- The Pirates are looking for additional offensive reinforcements after acquiring Spencer Horowitz.
- Free-agent reliever Tanner Scott’s market is extensive, with the Dodgers, Phillies and other contending teams involved.
- Corbin Burnes continues to draw interest, but is not close to signing.
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