The Moonshot: Juan Soto timeline, middle-class spenders and free agency wild cards
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The winter meetings begin Sunday. How much longer will we have to wait for Juan Soto to make his decision?
Robert Murray: I fully anticipate Soto being off the board by the end of the Winter Meetings, perhaps before people arrive on Sunday. A decision is getting close and once he comes off the board, expect all hell to break loose in Dallas.
Chris Landers: Maybe this is wishful thinking after weeks upon weeks of speculation, but I think we’ll know where Soto is signing before the Winter Meetings really get going on Monday. At this point, Soto has all the information he needs, and interested teams are deep into the bidding war. The outfielder is Scott Boras’ biggest client, but he’s far from the only one, and it behooves the superagent to get this done in time to shift focus to guys like Pete Alonso as quickly as possible.
Zachary Rotman: I’m far from an insider, but based on what’s being reported, I’d have to agree with Chris. The teams that are still in have met and presented multiple offers to Soto, so there simply isn’t much more for these teams to do other than bid before Soto makes his decision. Scott Boras would love the attention that comes from this to linger on, but Soto has everything he needs in front of him to make his decision. It could be any day now.
Terrence Jordan: There seems to be an expectation around baseball that Soto’s decision is imminent, and for the sake of all involved, I hope that’s true. The top players always seem to control the offseason, and if this drags out for weeks longer, it will have the ripple effect of making the hot stove ice cold. I think Scott Boras learned his lesson from Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery that it’s better to get deals done well before spring training. We’ll see.
Adam Weinrib: Sunday night at the absolute latest. This last “round of meetings” feels like a formality to me. It hasn’t even been mentioned specifically whether those meetings involve the remaining teams, or just Soto and Boras. He knows the outline of where he’s going. Maybe the Yankees will be offered a chance to match, but all parties know the parameters by now.
What’s a team that could surprise us in free agency — not necessarily by landing a huge name but with a series of shrewd moves that help them take the leap?
Chris Landers: The Kansas City Royals are never going to operate at the top of the free-agent market, but they’ve been among the most aggressive teams so far this offseason, already locking up righty Michael Wacha and swinging a trade for a new leadoff man in Jonathan India. There is at least some money to spend, pitching depth to dip into via trades and plenty of urgency to capitalize on the run to the ALDS this past season. The Royals aren’t too far off from making real noise in a wide-open American League (especially if Juan Soto leaves the Yankees for the Mets), and with a couple more smart additions, they could be a wagon next season.
Zachary Rotman: The Cincinnati Reds already made a shrewd move by acquiring Brady Singer, and in an NL Central division that should be wide open, it wouldn’t be shocking to see more coming. They’ll never break the bank, but their rotation looks awesome on paper, their lineup should be potent when healthy, the Reds can become serious threats to win the Central if they can make some bullpen additions. Tanner Scott will probably be out of their price range, but it isn’t impossible to find relievers in the bargain bin.
Terrence Jordan: The Giants have become an afterthought in the NL West, so they’re due to make some moves. Since shocking baseball with 107 wins in 2021, San Fran has hovered at or below .500, and their free agent pursuits have resulted in near misses (remember when we thought Aaron Judge was going to the Bay?). They’re going to be a player this winter, whether it’s on Corbin Burnes, Tanner Scott, Max Fried or Ha-Seong Kim. Recently they’ve been reported to be in on Willy Adames, as well. I can’t see them allowing the Dodgers and Padres to run this division without at least trying to do something about it.
Robert Murray: This may sound bizarre, but I’m going with the Athletics. They’re gonna have to spend to bring fan attention to their new homefield. Word is, they’ve pursued some decent names in free agency. But one thing heard is that the A's are having trouble convincing players to join them, which could result in them needing to overpay.
Adam Weinrib: The Toronto Blue Jays. They’re not into getting embarrassed two seasons in a row by being left at the altar, and their Juan Soto offer is not, in fact, a mean prank. If Soto chooses a different team, they’ll extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to prevent him from eyeing Boston, then add Corbin Burnes.
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Give us your prediction for the most unexpected, wild-card signing we’ll see in the next week.
Chris Landers: Pete Alonso has wild card written all over him. It’s clear he and agent Scott Boras are looking to get paid, but many of the game’s biggest and richest teams (including his old team, the Mets) have wised up when it comes to handing the bag to righty-hitting first basemen on the wrong side of 30. Still, Alonso’s power is too enticing for someone not to eventually cave. So I’ll say the Washington Nationals will keep him in the NL East: This team has enough young talent to think it can contend in 2025 with some offseason upgrades, and the Polar Bear is exactly the middle-of-the-order bat they need. Plus, we know Boras always loves to shake owner Mark Lerner down.
Zachary Rotman: I’m going to go with Joc Pederson to the Toronto Blue Jays. Whether the Jays get Juan Soto or not, the offense is going to have to be addressed in a big way, and Pederson should be cheap enough to allow them to fit him in their budget even if they get Soto. Pederson isn’t going to play the field and he isn’t going to do much of anything against left-handed pitching, but he’s as good as anyone against righties. For a Jays team that ranked 23rd in runs scored and 26th in home runs, the fit couldn’t be more perfect. They need a big bopper, and Pederson is that to a tee.
Terrence Jordan: How about Anthony Santander to the Guardians? Cleveland fell short against the Yankees in the ALCS, but they were the most consistent team in the American League all year. Still, that doesn’t mean that they can expect to stand pat and reach the playoffs again, because the Royals and Tigers proved late in the season that they’re coming for the AL Central crown. Santander’s big bat would pair beautifully with Jose Ramirez for a switch-hitting 1-2 power punch, and though he earned himself a nice contract with his outstanding 2024 season, he won’t break the bank like Juan Soto will, meaning the small-budget Guardians could make it happen.
Robert Murray: I’ll go with Anthony Santander to the Toronto Blue Jays. I think Toronto will spend in free agency, but will miss on Juan Soto, and get a very strong option in Santander to complement Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette in the lineup.
Adam Weinrib: Alex Bregman to the Detroit Tigers. This felt like a fit early in free agency, but based on Bregman’s reported expectations gap with the Astros ($156 million vs. The Manny Machado deal), I predict AJ Hinch coerces him to land in the middle at $225 million. Sorry, Jace Jung Hive.
Robert Murray Notes:
- Once Soto signs, expect the markets for Willy Adames and Pete Alonso to come into focus.
- Among the pitchers drawing strong interest who could sign at the Winter Meetings: Sean Manaea and Mike Soroka.
- With Kyle Higashioka going to the Rangers, look for the catching markets to come into focus in the coming days, with Gary Sanchez and Danny Jansen looming as the top remaining options.
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