The Moonshot: Juan Soto, worst contracts and MLB free agency predictions
Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.
We all know the favorites and likely contenders to sign Juan Soto. But what’s the most hilarious possible outcome for his free agency?
Zachary Rotman: The most hilarious possible outcome for Soto’s free agency would be his returning to the Washington Nationals. The Nationals landed James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, C.J. Abrams (and more) from the San Diego Padres in exchange for 2.5 years of Soto. The Padres then opted to move him less than two seasons later. Soto returning to where it all began to join an outfield consisting of Wood and Dylan Crews would both be electric and hilarious.
Terrence Jordan: All reports indicate that Soto can safely invest part of his sure-to-be hefty salary into subway tokens because the New York teams appear to be running a two-horse race for his services. Nothing would be funnier, though, than a return to the Padres, which would leave the Yankees without their superstar right fielder and the prospects they traded to get him for what amounts to a one-year rental.
Robert Murray: That Soto’s market doesn’t develop and he has to settle for a short-term contract that many of Scott Boras’ other players settled for last year. But that almost feels like an impossible result. Soto is going to get paid, perhaps around $600 million, and he’s going to be one of the richest players in baseball history before too long.
Chris Landers: It has to be winding up back with the Nationals, right? Soto kicked off this whole to-do by turning down a reportedly massive extension from Washington, causing the team to trade him to San Diego rather than lose him for nothing in free agency. The Nats have enough young talent in both their lineup and their rotation to sell Soto on quick contention, they’ve shown a willingness to spend big in the past (especially on Scott Boras clients) and we know Soto enjoyed his time in the nation’s capital. Two full years worth of speculation only to wind up right back where we started would be a hell of a trick. Plus, the reaction from Mets fans would be something else.
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Which under-the-radar free agent signing could have the biggest impact on next season’s playoff race?
Zachary Rotman: Players like Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, Willy Adames, and Alex Bregman headline the position players who are available, but they’re far from the only impactful bats out there. In fact, in the right spots, Joc Pederson is just as good, if not better than most of them. He slashed .275/.393/.515 last season with the Arizona Diamondbacks, launching 23 home runs with 64 RBI in 132 games. He shouldn’t play the field or hit against left-handed pitching, but not many hitters can do what he can do against right-handed pitching. Pederson’s 154 WRC+ against righties this past season ranked 12th in the majors, well ahead of all of the other free agents not named Soto. He’ll come cheap enough to the point where most teams with the DH opening will show interest, and is elite enough to hit in the middle of any order against righties. The fact that he has extensive postseason experience is just the cherry on top.
Terrence Jordan: One thing that stands out about MLB free agency is just how old most of the players are. That’s a product of the arbitration system that gives clubs control over their players for longer than any other major sport. What that means for a lot of clubs with free agent money to burn, though, is that most of the free agent pool is past their primes. It’s difficult to get excited about a batch of over-35 pitchers, you know? That’s why I’m going with Walker Buehler. The 30-year-old Dodgers righty had a rough return from Tommy John surgery, but he began to look like his old dominant self by the end of the playoffs. For the teams that can’t afford to swim in the depths it’ll take to land Corbin Burnes or Gerrit Cole, Buehler could be the next best thing.
Robert Murray: I’m changing gears here and going with a trade candidate instead. Give me Camilo Doval of the Giants. I think he has a real chance of getting traded and going to a different team could help unleash him after a down season that saw him get demoted from the closer role. I could absolutely see the Phillies being a team that pokes around here.
Chris Landers: Is it me, or is everyone sleeping on Tyler O’Neill? Yes, injuries are still a concern; he played in just 113 games for Boston in 2024. But when he was on the field, he looked every bit like the guy who got down ballot MVP votes with the Cardinals a few years ago, putting up a 31-homer campaign that was more than backed up by the underlying numbers. There’s a ton of risk associated with his profile, but he’s still just 29. Whichever team snags him is acquiring one of the most dangerous power hitters in the game.
Which team will sign the worst contract of the offseason and which player will receive this dubious honor?
Zachary Rotman: The Los Angeles Angels have a history of making poor free agency decisions, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them be the team to sign Nick Pivetta. It was surprising that Pivetta received a qualifying offer, and it’s even more surprising that he’s expected to reject that offer. Teams understandably like his high strikeout stuff (28.9 percent K-rate in 2024) and the fact that he limits walks (6.1 percent walk-rate in 2024), and he’s been mostly durable over the course of his eight-year career, but the fact that he has never finished a season with an ERA below 4.00 is eye-popping. Would a team really be willing to not only give Pivetta a lucrative multi-year deal but also part with a draft pick to do that? The Angels have signed players like Noah Syndergaard and Tyler Anderson despite the qualifying offer being present, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see that trend continue with Pivetta. He’d help their rotation, but the cost both financially and with the draft pick for a mid-rotation arm at best just isn’t worthwhile.
Terrence Jordan: Everything I’m hearing is that the Mets are planning to blow the roof off of this offseason. Normally that would make them prime candidates for worst contract, but I trust David Stearns to be smart with Steve Cohen’s money. Instead, I’m going to go with a recent rumor that paired Alex Bregman with the Nationals. Washington faded after a surprisingly solid start to the season, which indicates that they’re ready to step up and try to contend in a loaded NL East after a multi-year rebuild. Bregman has had a Hall-of-Fame-worthy career so far, but he walked less than half as much as he did in 2023, and Scott Boras’ assertion that he would be willing to move to second base doesn’t inspire confidence in his fielding. Maybe I’m still scarred from the Anthony Rendon contract, but giving big money to a 30-year-old possible third baseman doesn’t seem like a great idea.
Robert Murray: I want to make it clear that I like Jack Flaherty. I think he’s coming into his own and finally showing glimpses of the pitcher that everyone expected he would be. But the projections I see from experts — a $100+ million contract — feel very rich. I wouldn’t do it but I could see a team like, say, the Los Angeles Angels doing it.
Chris Landers: This is nothing against Pete Alonso personally, a wildly entertaining player who gave us some of the best moments of this past postseason. But right-right first basemen on the wrong side of 30 who were already (to put it kindly) athletically limited are not a profile that you want to bet on over the long haul. There are enough desperate teams out there for Alonso to land the sort of six- to eight-year deal he covets, and I’ll peg the San Francisco Giants as the team that eventually hands him the bag. Buster Posey and Co. already whiffed on Juan Soto, and they’re desperate to make some sort of splash this offseason. Alonso might hang on to his 40-homer power for another year or two, but I’m anxious about how that contract will look at age 34.
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