Look at you, Mountain West! In Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology update for ESPN, he has the mid-major conference getting not one, not two, not three, not even four teams into the NCAA Tournament, but five! Yes, you better believe Lunardi put five on it. He has Colorado State getting the automatic qualifier bid fresh off their big semifinal win on Friday night, with Boise State, New Mexico, San Diego State and Utah State all getting in as at-larges.
While we will not know for certain what teams are getting into the tournament until Sunday evening, Lunardi is brimming with confidence about the optimism on the horizon for the Mountain West. As of Saturday afternoon, he had Utah State as a team getting one of the last four byes. He also had San Diego State and Utah State as last four teams in, edging out the likes of Indiana and North Carolina.
So when you look at the bottom of Lunardi's latest bracketology update, you see the only leagues that are getting more teams in this year than the Mountain West are the SEC with a staggering 13 and then the Big Ten and Big 12 tied at eight apiece. Tied with the Mountain West with five teams apiece is the Big East, while the ACC may only get three teams in.
We have two more days of basketball to decide this, but things are looking up for the Mountain West — and down for some more traditional powers that could find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble.
Why will the Mountain West get five teams into the NCAA Tournament?
Granted, this year's bubble is shaping up to be particularly dire. Just look at Lunardi's first four out right now: Indiana at 19-13 and 10-10 in the Big Ten, with a 54 NET ranking and a 4-13 record in Quad 1 games; UNC is just 1-12 in Quad 1 games, fattening up on the underbelly of a weak ACC; and Texas is 19-15 overall and went just 6-12 in conference play. Behind them are teams like Ohio State (below .500 in conference, didn't win a game in the Big Ten Tournament) and Wake Forest (72nd overall per KenPom).
The high-major teams on the bubble this season simply haven't done enough to convince the selection committee of their worthiness. Sure, their schedules have been tougher than what the Mountain West deals with, but at a certain point losing to good teams can't be an argument in and of itself. San Diego St. and Utah St. notched non-con wins over Houston and Iowa, respectively, while Boise St. beat St. Mary's on a neutral floor.
It is hard to say why the Mountain West has had such a good run of late regarding March Madness. To some, this league is the definition of a mid-major. In college football, we view the Mountain West as one of the stronger leagues in the Group of Five (AAC, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt). Those leagues have more financial resources to build up great sports programs than even smaller schools.
The other thing to note is college basketball has become more reliant on more experienced teams than most than in years past. In essence, the era of the one-and-done is not as impactful as it was even a few years ago. Players may only briefly pit stop in college basketball before turning pro, but teams that have been together longer tend to play harder for each other as the season progresses.
Now that we live in the world of NIL, it is also financially beneficial for mid-major programs like the Mountain West to pay some of the best players on their teams for their names, images and likenesses. Basketball stars can be more marketable than football stars at times because we can connect a name to face and not have to look under a hat or catch a glance with a helmet that is off.
Overall, the Mountain West seems to have taken advantage of The American being in a state of flux.