Most people associated with the Indiana Pacers are squarely focused on the team's attempt to become NBA Champions at the moment. The franchise's front office doesn't enjoy the luxury of that singular focus. They need to be prepared to find a way to retain star center Myles Turner the minute free agency begins.
Inking Turner to a new deal will not be a cheap or easy proposition for a Pacers team that would prefer to stay out of the luxury tax. Keeping their stretch center in the fold projects to comfortably push the team into the tax. The question the Pacers need to ask is whether or not they can avoid exceeding the second apron. It's difficult to envision team ownership sanctioning that kind of spending, even if it's designed to keep an NBA Champion intact.
Turner and his representatives will be looking for a significant raise over the roughly $20.5 million he earned this season. The two-year extension he signed with the Pacers turned into a bargain deal for the team. Agents do not want to see their big-name clients sign deals that fail to maximize their full market value.
Pacers will have to up their payroll to keep Myles Turner as part of core
The Pacers correctly know that Tyrese Haliburton is their franchise star of the future. Pascal Siakam also has an argument that he is the team's second best player. Proponents of Turner will point out how his game meshes so perfectly with his ball dominant teammates.
On offense, Turner has developed into one of the league's most efficient long-range shooting centers. He shot a career-high 39.6 percent from behind the arc this year on 5.5 attempts per game.
It would be nice if he found a way to get more shots up but that's not an easy proposition for Turner given the mouths to feed on the Pacers' first unit. The good news for his next contract is that there's no reason to believe his shooting will decline as he enters his early-30s. There's even a cogent case to be made that his accuracy from deep might improve over the life of his next deal, given his recent strides in that department.
On defense, Turner anchors the Pacers' big man group with elite shot-blocking ability. He may not be a great switch defender, but he's got enough athleticism to hold up against most opponents. His bread and butter will continue to be rim protection for the next few seasons. It's fair to project some defensive decline into Turner's game, but it should not stop him from earning a big contract.
The Pacers also have to face the reality that replacing Turner via free agency or the draft will be nearly impossible. He holds an enormous amount of leverage over the team after helping them reach the NBA Finals. Letting him walk in free agency would cause outrage amongst the team's passionate fan base.
Myles Turner contract prediction in 2025 free agency
Given all those factors, it seems reasonable to believe Turner will find a way to get the sort of deal he's looking for. The Pacers might try to push back against the length of contract he prefers, but they cannot afford to hold a hard line. If they can get out of negotiations with a five-year, $150 million deal they should consider it a massive success.
The smart bet is that Indiana is forced to pay a little over that number to get a deal done without having this turn into a lengthy contract saga. The final projection for Turner should bump up to five years, $160 million. That should be good value for both sides. It can also help the Pacers continue to be Eastern Conference contenders for the foreseeable future.