NBA Draft: One stat that could scare teams away from Cooper Flagg and lure them to Dylan Harper

Cooper Flagg is the strong favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft no matter what team makes the selection. But perhaps the decision shouldn't be so easy: There's one key stat that does not paint Flagg as the can't-miss prospect many scouts believe him to be.

There is still a long way to go in Flagg's collegiate season, but his shooting has not been up to par. His true shooting percentage of just 50.5 percent through 12 games is a significant red flag for the 6-foot-9 freshman.

His inefficient offense is largely being driven by his inability to get the three-ball down to go in on a regular basis. Shooting under 25 percent from behind the arc on over seven attempts per game will drag down the offensive output of any player. The fact that Flagg is compounding that issue by shooting just a shade over 48 percent from two only adds to his inefficiency.

The fact that Flagg is a 75 percent foul shooter does lend itself to the probability that his perimeter shooting will improve. But that still is not an elite number for a player who is being billed as a premium scorer. He is being asked to do a lot of creation within the confines of Duke's system but he is surrounded by quality shooters. Flagg should be doing more with the ball in his hands than he's been able to produce on the young season.

Right now, Flagg's shooting struggles are just an issue scouts should be keeping a close eye on. There is still plenty of time for him to turn things around. Nothing about his shooting stroke suggests that he can't get the ball to go into the basket more often. The freshman is running out of time to prove his worth at the collegiate level, though. If this trend continues for several more weeks it might be time to reevaluate his ceiling as a prospect.

Dylan Harper's shooting numbers are significantly superior

The natural question to ask if Flagg isn't going to go No. 1 overall is who might replace him. Dylan Harper is one prospect who is gaining momentum despite Rutgers' recent struggles to win games. He has the ball in his hands more than Flagg and he has an inferior supporting cast.

That's why it's telling that Harper's shooting numbers are well above Flagg in every category. His true shooting percentage of 61.5 percent shows how effective he's been. The talented point guard is shooting 35 percent on three pointers on more attempts than Flagg. Perhaps most surprising is the fact that Harper is shooting over 60 percent from inside the arc despite only measuring in at 6-foot-6.

So who should go No. 1 overall?

Flagg still deserves the nod over Harper, but the gap between the two players is closing rapidly. If things continue to progress at the current pace, there will be a real debate over who should be the first pick.

At the very least, a team that needs a point guard more than a forward might have enough ammunition to go for Harper over Flagg due to the shooting difference between the two players. That's a big sea change over how both prospects were rated coming into the season.