Wasting an NBA Draft pick is not fun. Trust me, I watched my then-beloved Charlotte Bobcats decide between Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard and Bismack Biyombo, and eventually go with... yeah. Love you, Biz.
Hitting on a draft pick, though, especially in a spot where there doesn't appear to be much star power left, accelerates a rebuild quicker than pretty much anything else. We all know Nikola Jokic was the No. 41 pick in the 2014 draft; on a smaller scale, these NBA Finals are an example of hitting on picks in a big way. Andrew Nembhard went No. 31, Pascal Siakam went No. 27, Tyrese Haliburton went No. 12 (not to Indiana, but still), Jalen Williams went No. 12, SGA No. 11, Aaron Wiggins No. 55, etc. You see the vision.
There's talent on the board in every NBA Draft. How confident should each lottery team be in their front office's ability to find it this year? From "We're going to blow this" to "Whoever we take, he'll be a star":
13. Charlotte Hornets
No, this isn't the same front office that took Frank Kaminsky over Devin Booker, or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist over Damian Lillard and Bradley Beal, or Malik Monk over Donovan Mitchell, or Noah Vonleh over Zach LaVine, or took James Bouknight and Kai Jones in the first round of the same draft, or traded Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on draft night, or.... what was the question?
Oh, right. This is the same front office that took Tidjane Salaun No. 6 overall last year, though. Godspeed.
12. New Orleans Pelicans
There's a chance Yves Missi turns into a very good NBA center. That would be New Orleans' second good draft pick in five years. The other one, Dyson Daniels, no longer plays on the team. I'm not supremely confident here.
11. Chicago Bulls
I really like Matas Buzelis. But Wendell Carter Jr. over SGA and Patrick Williams over Tyrese Haliburton are such big misses that I have a very hard time picturing two straight good picks from this front office.
10. Dallas Mavericks
There is no universe where Dallas takes someone other than Cooper Flagg. And still... I know what I've seen. Nico Harrison has made it hard to trust him.
9. Atlanta Hawks
The draft history of this team is wild. Recently, it's been either home runs or strikeouts; Onyeka Okongwu, Jalen Johnson and Zaccharie Risacher intermixed with Kobe Bufkin, A.J. Griffin and Cam Reddish.
Overall, it's far from the worst — but there's a whole new group in ATL's front office this year. They don't have a president of basketball operations right now, and the draft is this month.
8. Brooklyn Nets
This team hasn't drafted in the lottery in like 10 years. I have no idea what to expect. So they're right in the middle.
7. Utah Jazz
Isaiah Collier last year looks like a good pick from Danny Ainge and Justin Zanik. Taylor Hendricks in 2023 was smart (when he can finally stay healthy.) I'm still mostly in on Keyonte George. There aren't many whiffs... but I don't know if there are many home runs, either.
Brutal lottery luck took them out of "obvious pick" territory, too, making this another tough decision. Utah is in a tough spot.
6. Toronto Raptors
Gradey Dick and Scottie Barnes are good enough that Masai Ujiri still gets a passing grade in my book — but this draft feels important. Hit again, and get a third young building block to surround those two, and the Raptors are suddenly in a really good spot. Strike out at No. 9, and things could crumble quickly.
5. Philadelphia 76ers
Daryl Morey has some big hits (hello Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain, thank you in advance for saving the city of Philadelphia from itself.)
But this pick, which seemed to be "Ace Bailey, no matter what" a few weeks ago has suddenly become the inflection point of this draft; Bailey's stock is freefalling, and questions surround the Sixers decision. I'm relatively confident Daryl gets it right.
4. Washington Wizards
I know, putting a team that went 18-64 this high seems wrong. But I like what this new Wizards front office is doing, and I won't apologize for it. Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly and Bub Carrington are all going to be good. Kyshawn George and Tristan Vukevic might not be but I like the idea nonetheless.
This team isn't close to competing, but I'm a fan of how they're going about this rebuild.
3. Portland Trail Blazers
With former DraftExpress lead Mike Schmitz in the front office helping call the shots, I trust the Blazers to make solid, safe picks. Donovan Clingan last year, Shaedon Sharpe in 2022, and Toumani Camara (who Portland traded for before his rookie season) are all sharp pickups. I trust the evaluation process in Portland. Mostly. Don't ask me about 2023.
2. Houston Rockets
Reed Sheppard at No. 3 last season may have been a miss. But Amen Thompson in 2023, Jabari Smith in 2022 and Jalen Green in 2021 were all considerable hits. A big part of Houston's core has been built through the draft. Plus, there's no pressure on this front office at No. 10; Houston can take a swing if it wants (and I think it should.)
1. San Antonio Spurs
This team pisses me off; they do everything right. Their fans endure zero hardships whatsoever. Of course they're going to get both picks right.
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NBA news roundup
- A Giannis Antetokounmpo trade sounds massively unlikely. I don't know if that's because Milwaukee can't find a parter or if they really want to keep him, but it's the right decision either way. If you have Giannis... you shouldn't trade Giannis. Someone hire me.
- A Kevin Durant trade, however, still does sound likely. If Houston can trade for him and keep Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun, I could be persuaded on the move for the Rockets.