When Paolo Banchero tore his oblique less than two weeks into the 2024-25 season, Magic fans queued up 2026 NBA Draft videos and began mentally prepping for 2025-26. This season looked lost, early. Then Franz Wagner came to gently close everyone's laptop and redirect their attention to the on-court development he was displaying in Orlando.
Wagner, who had previously been the second fiddle in Orlando, took on the role of top scoring man for the Magic, and his ability to shoulder that load rather efficiently is the foremost reason why he's ranked No. 21 in our latest NBA99 rankings, a list of the 99 best players in the NBA. Banchero checks in at No. 44.
A year back, these rankings would have made more sense inversed; Banchero was widely thought to be the player who would lead Orlando throughout the 2020s, with Wagner appearing to be a reliable second-in-command. But in his fourth NBA season, it's Wagner who looks like the bedrock for a franchise searching for solid foundation, with Banchero operating as his running mate — if that's possible.
Franz Wagner put the league on notice
Deep in the Crypt, Franz Wagner faced down Cam Reddish about 30 feet from the basket. The clock ticked precariously low, now under 5 seconds, and Wagner made his move. Down two, Orlando could force OT with a 2-pointer, but the Magic star never contemplated playing to tie.
Two between the legs dribbles inched Wagner toward the arc, then a stepback brought him a few feet behind the 3-point line again. He launched a 26-footer that settled softly in the laces. Game. Drive home safe, LA.
That was about three months ago — Wagner's heroics didn't begin in the closing seconds of Orlando's dazzling win over the Lakers, though. He poured in 37 points that night, his third 30-point outing that week, and what would end up being one of nine 25-plus point games in November, most coming during a sparkling 12-1 stretch from the shorthanded Magic.
Was Orlando's success with Banchero sidelined a flash in the pan? Perhaps. It's relatively common for a team to play well directly after a star goes down with an injury. Still — this was a pretty bright flash.
Then Wagner also tore his oblique and the Magic's season cratered from there. But Wagner was so magnificent in his time running the show solo that I am ready to hand him the reins in Orlando. I don't actually have the power to do that, but if I did... I would.
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Wagner's profile screams "superstar" more than Banchero's
Estimated Plus-Minus is a model that tries to predict a player's impact on his team; here are the top 10 players in EPM this season, according to Dunks & Threes:
- Nikola Jokic
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Donovan Mitchell
- Luka Doncic
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Jayson Tatum
- Stephen Curry
- Joel Embiid
- Kyrie Irving
- Franz Wagner
That's a whole lot of MVPs, All-NBAs and championship rings ahead of Wagner on the list.
Of course, EPM is one of many impact statistics, and Wagner doesn't measure this highly in all of them. But it's not an anomaly, either. In plus-minus per 100 possessions, Wagner slots in below only Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander, who are currently battling for MVP honors — and who are both historically impactful for their teams when on the court.
A 23 year-old averaging 25 points per game and challenging two of the best players of this generation for on-court impact is pretty close to the dictionary definition of a "building block."
Paolo Banchero, meanwhile, led the 2023-24 Magic in points rebounds, assists and minutes. At 21 years old, he lifted an offensively challenged team to the postseason, then went blow for blow with Donovan Mitchell, almost winning a series thanks to some heroic efforts.
But there's also a considerable chasm between Wagner and Banchero in impact stats and on-off splits. Orlando's net rating has been better with Banchero off the court each of his three seasons in the NBA.
Again, when you're a young player tasked with keeping an offense breathing there's a chance the efficiency dips. Banchero can't be faulted for a lack of talent around him. But when Wagner was tasked with the same role in Banchero's absence, his efficiency and impact were magnified, not diminished.
Paolo Banchero makes the Magic better — I hope that's obvious, despite a somewhat ugly advanced stat profile. But he might not be enough of a positive impact player at this point in his career to safely stamp him as Orlando's central hub. I feel more confident giving that stamp to Wagner right now, and that's why he's ranked so much higher in our NBA 99 rankings.
Can Banchero shift to a secondary role? I don't know — but it might be the best thing for the future of this franchise if he does. To this point, Wagner has been playing "off" Banchero, but Orlando's offense has never been highly effective with that setup. If the roles are reversed moving forward, it won't save the Magic offense — but it might help.
Banchero's playstyle is most effective when he's handling the ball — and he should of course still have the ball in his hands regularly. But if we switched his career usage rate of 29.4 with Wagner's (24.7) I think Orlando's offense would be operating a little smoother.
A bump in the road
Improving in the NBA is brutally difficult; the Magic are experiencing that firsthand.
A year removed from a surprise playoff berth, the Magic have not leapt forward this season like trustworthy minds around the league believed they would. Instead, the team dons a losing record as the NBA calender accelerates into March.
Both Wagner and Banchero have both missed significant time with torn obliques, and now Orlando's battery, Jalen Suggs (who might be the real key to all of this, but that's a story for a different day) is out indefinitely with a knee injury.
With two franchise pillars already on the roster, a step back in 2024-25 isn't reason to panic about the state of the franchise. It is, though, reason to examine the roster at large and see what pieces fit and which could best fit in adjusted roles.
And I think Franz Wagner is the piece in Orlando; he's the entire perimeter, the part of the puzzle you immediately put in place after spreading the pieces on the table for the first time.