The Minnesota Lynx are practically running away with the WNBA’s 1-seed at 19-4 and Napheesa Collier is an overwhelming favorite for MVP at -500. They’re on pace for the second-best winning percentage of the past decade, which means we can’t help but try and look for weaknesses. Sure, they’re second in scoring, and lead the league in point differential, but no one’s perfect. And they might just have a weakness: free throws.
Free throw shooting in basketball is a lot like special teams in football, in that you only notice it when it’s costing you the game. The Lynx are actually in the top half of the league in free throw shooting percentage, but the problem is they get to the line the least of any team, with just 16 attempts per game. For reference, the Washington Mystics, who lead the WNBA in that category, average 24.4 attempts.
In the later rounds of the playoffs, which they will undoubtedly make it to, the margins of victory are smaller, and an extra point here and there can make all the difference. Though the sample size is small, there is some correlation between their free throw attempts and results. In four of their five losses this season (the fifth being in the Commissioner’s Cup Championship, so it’s not included in their record), they’ve been below their season average for free throw attempts, at just 13.6. It’s a small weakness, but it’s seemingly the only one they have, so let’s dig a little deeper.
Why aren’t the Lynx getting to the line?
WNBA officiating has recently been under a lot of scrutiny from players, coaches, and commentators alike. In fact, Minnesota’s head coach, Cheryl Reeve, blasted WNBA officiating after losing in game five of last year’s finals, saying that the game was “stolen from us.”
Inconsistent (or poor) officiating could very well be a factor. Are the officials getting revenge on Reeve for her comments by “missing” calls for an entire season? I’d leave the tin foil hat on the rack for a while longer, because there’s another factor that we can’t just ignore.
The Lynx average 26.8 3-point attempts per game. That’s only fifth in the league, but that’s significantly closer to the top of the range than the bottom. The Golden State Valkyries lead the league with 30.4, while the team in last, with just 16.3 per game, are the aforementioned Washington Mystics. It’s no coincidence that the team that shoots the fewest threes gets the most three point attempts. Shooting fouls tend to happen at the rim, not on jumpshots, and teams that shoot more from the perimeter are probably going to shoot less free throws.
Why it might not matter
For one, the Lynx have been doing just fine as is. Secondly, teams shoot fewer free throws during the playoffs anyway. In last year’s playoffs, seven of the eight playoff teams shot fewer free throws per game than they did during the regular season. The one team that shot more was, ironically, the Minnesota Lynx. The refs are noticeably more conservative with their foul calling during the playoffs, and at any level of basketball, that can cause teams with an over-reliance on getting calls to seek out contact, flop, and then complain to the refs instead of getting back to defend the fast break.
Having a tougher whistle during the regular season, if it is actually tougher, might actually help the Lynx in the long run. But it’s also possible they lose in another game five because they’re not getting calls. Only time will tell.