With the start of the 2025-26 NBA season fast approaching, the league's trade market is largely dormant for the time being. Teams want to see how their offseason moves shake out and assess their biggest needs before pursuing major upgrades. Besides, anyone who signed with a team as a free agent this past summer can't be traded until Dec. 15 at the earliest.
Once the calendar flips to Dec. 15, though, all bets are off.
Last year's trade deadline featured two blockbuster moves, including one seismic shakeup that absolutely no one saw coming. When the Dallas Mavericks traded Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers for a package headlined by Anthony Davis, ESPN's Shams Charania had to clarify that his phone was not hacked because it seemed so unbelievable. Jimmy Butler's exit from the Miami Heat was far more predictable, but it could be similarly impactful, at least in the short term.
This year's trade deadline might not feature a blockbuster of that magnitude, but there figures to be no shortage of activity. Some teams will look to recoup something for players whom they otherwise might lose for nothing as free agents next summer. Others will make some financially motivated moves to either dip below the luxury-tax line or give themselves more breathing room under the aprons.
With that in mind, let's dive into the players most likely to be on the move between now and Feb. 5.
Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors
We're starting with a layup here.
After a months-long stalemate, Jonathan Kuminga finally agreed to re-sign with the Golden State Warriors on a two-year, $46.8 million deal with a second-year team option. Charania reported that "both sides understand the likelihood of exploring trades when Kuminga is eligible to be moved in mid-January," especially because Kuminga waived his right to veto any trade as part of the agreement.
The Warriors did give him a 15% trade bonus in his new contract, which likely was no coincidence. Kuminga's camp leaked last fall to The Athletic that he no longer believed Warriors head coach Steve Kerr "will allow him to reach his full potential, and he's spent the past few months clamoring for a consistent role and more opportunities.
It's not a question of if Kuminga gets traded this season. It's a question of when and where.
Anfernee Simons, Boston Celtics
When Jayson Tatum tore his Achilles during last year's playoffs, it marked the end of an era for the Boston Celtics. They proceeded to take a sledgehammer to their roster this offseason, shipping off Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis in financially motivated moves instead of assembling the first $500 million roster in NBA history.
The Celtics are now comfortably below the second apron, but their work might not be done yet. They're still roughly $12.1 million above the $187.9 million luxury-tax threshold and will be subject to the more punitive repeater tax this season because they've been taxpayers in each of the past three years. Unless their depleted roster works its way back into championship contention, the Celtics might be motivated to keep slashing and burning, which could put Anfernee Simons on the chopping block.
Simons is the Celtics' fourth-highest-paid player this season at $27.7 million. Unless they're willing to move on from Tatum ($54.1 million), Jaylen Brown ($53.1 million) or Derrick White ($28.1 million), flipping Simons for someone earning at least $12.1 million less would be their cleanest way out of the tax.
The NBA's salary-matching rules for trades could make that difficult to swing in one transaction. The Celtics could also look to salary-dump Sam Hauser ($10.0 million) and one player on a minimum contract as an alternative. However, ESPN's Brian Windhorst said the Celtics were "actively trying to trade" Simons in July after receiving him for Holiday.
Here's hoping that he's only renting in Boston for now.
Kelly Oubre Jr. and/or Andre Drummond, Philadelphia 76ers
Speaking of salary dumps… the Philadelphia 76ers conveniently keep finding ways to sneak under the luxury-tax line, even if it requires burning future draft capital and has no tangible team-building benefits. Will history repeat itself again this year?
After Quentin Grimes took his one-year, $8.7 million qualifying offer instead of reaching a long-term deal, the Sixers are now only $7.0 million above the tax line. Grimes has the right to veto any trade this year, so he might not be a candidate for a trade-deadline salary-dump, but the same can't be said for Kelly Oubre Jr. ($8.4 million) and Andre Drummond ($5.0 million).
During a Bleacher Report livestream in September, NBA insider Jake Fischer said there had been "buzz all summer long about the Sixers looking to potentially move" one of Drummond or Oubre, "if not both." Much like the Celtics, the Sixers might be tempted to shed salary at the trade deadline if they aren't in championship contention by January.
Unless the Sixers are willing to move one of Joel Embiid, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey or VJ Edgecombe, Oubre and Drummond are the obvious candidates for a tax-ducking trade.
C.J. McCollum and/or Khris Middleton, Washington Wizards
The Washington Wizards are on the opposite end of the spectrum from the Celtics and Sixers. They have the league's third-lowest payroll and are more than $30 million below the luxury-tax line, so they have plenty of financial flexibility to play with in-season.
The Wizards also have two massive expiring contracts in Khris Middleton ($33.3 million) and C.J. McCollum ($30.7 million), neither of whom factor into their long-term plans. If another team is looking to get off a bloated contract, the rebuilding Wizards would likely be open to flipping one of those expiring deals as long as they get additional compensation.
If the Wizards let both Middleton and McCollum come off their books next summer, they could have more than $80 million in salary-cap space. However, the NBA's new salary-floor rules—which require teams to spend at least 90% of the salary cap by the first day of the regular season—could make it less appealing to enter an offseason with that much cap room. Therefore, Middleton or McCollum might end up getting moved as salary ballast in a midseason trade for a longer-term contract.
Nikola Vučević, Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls refuse to commit to a full-on rebuild, although they dipped their toes into those waters at last year's trade deadline by shipping Zach LaVine to the Sacramento Kings for Kevin Huerter, Zach Collins, Tre Jones and the first-round pick that they'd later spend on Noa Essengue. Could Nikola Vučević be next?
There was a "growing sense" that the Bulls would flip him by last year's trade deadline, according to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype, although no deal came to fruition. The Golden State Warriors reportedly tried to pry Vooch away but "talks fizzled as the teams could not agree on a trade construction," according to longtime NBA reporter Marc Stein.
The 34-year-old is now heading into the last year of his current contract and sticks out like a sore thumb on a roster that's otherwise teeming with 20-somethings. However, during a Bleacher Report livestream over the summer, NBA insider Jake Fischer said that interest in Vučević had so tepid that his only path out of Chicago this season might be a buyout after the trade deadline.
Injuries could change that landscape between now and February, though. Vučević is only earning $21.5 million this year, which is relatively affordable for a starting-caliber center. Trade chatter about him figures to pick back up in December or January unless the Bulls outperform expectations.
Gabe Vincent and/or Maxi Kleber, L.A. Lakers
At the beginning of the offseason, the Los Angeles Lakers were reportedly being protective of their long-term financial flexibility. However, Dan Woike of The Athletic reported in September that Luka Dončić's decision to sign a three-year, max-contract extension "nudged L.A.'s priorities in more aggressive directions."
LeBron James has a full no-trade clause, so any deal involving him would require his sign-off. Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves are both set to become unrestricted free agents next offseason, so the Lakers could flip either one if they're afraid of losing them for nothing, but they also figure to be key components of their 2025-26 roster.
The same can't be said for Gabe Vincent ($11.5 million) and Maxi Kleber ($11.0 million), both of whom may be on the fringes of the rotation. If an opportunity presents itself for an upgrade at some point this season, those two are among the Lakers' best salary-matching chips, as they're both on expiring contracts.
Jusuf Nurkić, Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz don't plan to sign Walker Kessler to a rookie-scale contract extension, according to Tony Jones of The Athletic, which will result in no shortage of trade speculation about him. However, the Jazz are reportedly holding off so they can take advantage of his $14.9 million free-agent cap hold, which figures to be far below where his extension will begin.
Attention should thus turn to another center on their roster, Jusuf Nurkić.
Nurkić figures to open the year as Kessler's primary reserve—and is starting-caliber insurance in case Kessler does get injured or traded—but the 31-year-old likely doesn't factor into Utah's long-term future. He's also the Jazz's second-highest-paid player this season at $19.4 million, trailing only Lauri Markkanen ($46.4 million).
Like the Wizards, the rebuilding Jazz should be open to taking on some longer-term money if it comes packaged with draft picks and/or young players. Nurkić is by far their best salary-matching chip in that regard.