For the ninth year in a row, The Step Back is honoring the best young players in the NBA with our 25-under-25. The list (check it out here) is exactly that long because it sets up the clever name, but it’s also an arbitrary cut-off that leaves out many young players on the rise.
And, if previous years have taught us anything, we’re probably wrong about a few players and left someone off who will be more than deserving. Here are the young guns who could make us look silly for leaving them off this year's list.
Who just missed the cut on this year’s 25-under-25 NBA Player Rankings?
26. Josh Giddey, Forward, Chicago Bulls
Why he missed: At the end of the 25-under-25, we've usually worked our way down to high-level role players who we think could be key contributors on a winning team — guys like Jalen Duren, Dereck Lively II or Christian Braun. As the Thunder seemed to realize, Giddey's defense and inconsistent shooting make him a weakness waiting to be exploited against top-tier competition. If he's not good enough to carry a good team as a primary creator and too flawed to work as a high-level role player, then he belongs in this range, regardless of what his contract might imply.
Why we might look stupid: As a 22-year-old, he averaged 14.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 1.2 steals per game in his first season in Chicago, shooting 37.8 percent from beyond the arc. He addresses some of his weaknesses, and deciding that he's not good enough to lead a good team might be a bit premature. If defenses actually start responding to the threat of his improved shooting and the Bulls win a few more games, getting themselves through the Play-In Tournament, we could have some serious egg on our faces.
27. Tari Eason, Forward, Houston Rockets
Why he missed: Eason is an impact player, but that impact is still relatively constrained. Injuries have limited him to just 77 games over the past two seasons. He was on the floor for under 25 minutes per game last season and that number isn't likely to change much this season with Dorian Finney-Smith, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant and Amen Thompson also demanding minutes at one or both forward spots. He's good at what he does but, by volume, what he does isn't quite enough for him to leap any of the players ahead of him.
Why we might look stupid: Eason is an absolute star in his minutes. Pro-rate his box score stats per-36, and he's averaging 17.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.5 steals and 1.3 blocks. He's the second-best defender on this team, behind Thompson, has the versatility to unlock a huge number of lineups, and his relentless motor is a huge asset. Eason is the kind of player whose value might even increase in high-leverage games, and if he pops as a shooter (34.7 from beyond the arc) and stays healthy it's not crazy to imagine him eventually supplanting Smith Jr. in the rotation and really taking off.
28. Walker Kessler, Big, Utah Jazz
Why he missed: Kessler has been one of the best shot-blockers in the league over his three seasons, but what else does he do? Despite the block numbers, it's not clear he has all the other tools to anchor an elite defense. He's under 60 percent from the free throw line for his career, can't reliably punish mismatches in the post, and has no real shooting range to speak of.
Why we might look stupid: One of the reasons Kessler hasn't done much on offense is the incredible inconsistency of the Jazz's backcourt creators. But that could change this year with Ace Bailey drawing attention, and another year of experience for Keyonte George and Isaiah Collier. In addition, he's become one of the most productive offensive rebounders in the league and, at age-24, still could learn a lot from the cast of reliable frontcourt veterans the Jazz have now. And of course, if he gets traded, and we see him in a different setting — say manning the middle for Luka Dončić, LeBron James and the Lakers — he could turn out to be a completely different player.
29. Jabari Smith Jr., Forward, Houston Rockets
Why he missed: The whole appeal of Smith Jr. as a draft prospect was his size, mobility and defensive upside paired with elite shooting ability. But entering year four, he's a 34 percent shooter from beyond the arc who hasn't shown any meaningful ability to create his own shot and round out his offensive game. He's a solid guy to have, but that might be all he is.
Why we might look stupid: He hit 42 percent of 188 attempts as a freshman at Auburn. If he starts hitting anywhere close to that number, everything changes. It's the evolution we've been waiting for the past few offseasons, only to be disappointed. But maybe this is his year?
30. Shaedon Sharpe, Wing, Trail Blazers
Why he missed: This section is thin because I'm not sure I have a good answer ...
Why we might look stupid: I feel pretty confident saying right now that this was a miss. Sharpe was included in this same piece last year and ranked No. 29. He dropped a spot despite averaging 18.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game for a surging Trail Blazers team that almost made the Play-In. He only made 31.1 percent from beyond the arc, and his 3-point shooting has declined every season, but that's still pretty thin criticism for a 22-year-old with elite athleticism and established production. If the Trail Blazers are indeed frisky this season, Sharpe is going to be key, and we're going to look ridiculous for slotting him this low.
Other guys who didn't make the list but might make us look silly: Jalen Green (31), Bennedict Mathurin (32), Dylan Harper (34), Kel'el Ware (36), VJ Edgecombe (39), Maras Buzelis (50)