Stardom in sports is a funny thing, and ill-defined. Do wins make you a star? Maybe -- but Bill Russell is nowhere near the most-sold jersey of all time. Magic and Kareem are behind Kobe and Shaq on sales. Maybe it's defined by change in culture -- Allen Iverson makes the list, probably earned his 2001 MVP trophy just as much off of aura as his league leading scoring average. But my belief is that the concept of stardom exists on multiple levels, and no one thing defines it above all others.
The same goes for the ways in which a player grows into a star, or in some cases, superstar. On some levels, you don't get a Steve Nash without a Mike D'Antoni, or a Splash Brothers without a GM with the mental wherewithal to not trade Klay Thompson for Kevin Love. And with little exception, it is very difficult to predict who the next generation of NBA stars will consist of. After all, hindsight is 20/20, and you're lying if you predicted Kobe Bryant to become a Top 10 all-timer back in 1996. Talent is only one factor of the grand, unknowable algorithm that calculates when an NBA player is, or will ever be, ready to take 'The Leap'. These are, at least, my best predictions on the three players who are best set up to take 'The Leap'.
And before you say anything, no, this list will not be mentioning Wemby, Paolo, or any other player that has already, as Shaq would put it, 'emerged'. Wemby and Paolo were both transcendent before injuries derailed their 2025 campaigns. Wemby missed the last 46 games of the season, and Paolo felt like he was constantly fighting to recover from a torn oblique, even after returning in January. Both will be contending for All-NBA First Team and MVP votes this coming season, as they headline the Honorable Mentions for this list. Tyrese Maxey is also on there, but just because I'm too much of a coward to pick him, with Paul George forcing touches.
Honorable Mentions: Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero, Tyrese Maxey
Let's list.
Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
Say what you want about Kevin Durant, but he is the ultimate plug'n'play primary scorer. If the man can exist with Kyrie Irving and James Harden, he can exist anywhere, especially on a Houston Rockets team that just had its reigning black hole scorer vacated in the trade that brought KD there. Jalen Green is gone, and KD is poised to draw all of the on-ball defensive attention he's leaving behind. Someone is bound to fill in the backdoor space that KD's gravity and Sengun's playmaking creates, and that someone has got to have the nose and motor to find those negative spaces.
That someone is Amen Thompson.
Yes, he only averaged just over 14 points per game in 2025. But if opposing scouts take even one step deeper into his stats, Amen Thompson becomes ****ing terrifying. 14.1 points per game gets a lot scarier when you consider Thompson also turned in an All-Defense First Team campaign. He basically was 2014 Kawhi Leonard. And for the advanced stats nerds, Thompson's maintained both his usage and an above-league average 18 PER. He also improved his true shooting percentage from 57 percent to 60 percent. All this while increasing his scoring averages by 50 percent from his rookie year.
Even if he wasn't going to work on his game, replacing Jalen Green's inefficient chucking with Kevin Durant out of the bag could easily increase Amen Thompson's scoring output while having him maintain his robot-like efficiency. Assuming he has improved over the off-season, Amen Thompson could feasibly turn into mid-2010's Kawhi Leonard with more bounce.
Biggest Potential Leap: All-Star, All-NBA 3rd Team
Toumani Camara, Portland Trail Blazers
If we're being honest, this spot on the list could belong to any one of three Blazers. Deni Avdija was a revelation in his first Portland stint, and their once-ridiculed move to spirit him away from Washington looks inspired (truly, careers go to our nation's capital to die). Shaedon Sharpe, while seeming to have taken a mini leap in his sophomore season, could be poised for a true All-Star level breakout season in 2026.
But, for me, the cleanest path to stardom remains to Toumani Camara. His second-year rise (ninth in DPOY voting, Second Team All-Defense) feels meteoric, and he doesn't have to compete for initiation-style touches the way that Avdija might with Sharpe and Scoot Henderson.
What the stardom 'race' -- if it can be called that -- comes down to between Avdija and Camara is current output versus ceiling. Deni Avdija is just now realizing his next gear in Portland and is the team's offensive hub for the future, but Camara's ceiling just looks so much higher. Keep in mind, he's just about to enter his third season in the league. It's tough, but Toumani Camara represents the Portland Trail Blazers on this breakout list.
Biggest Potential Leap: All-Star Reserve
Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
Speaking of injury-ruined breakout campaigns, 18/10 on year-to-year improved efficiency from an out-of-lottery starting power forward is a fringe All-Star campaign, certainly in the East. Ah, Jalen Johnson, what could have been.
If I were a betting man, I'd be guessing that the leading reason for Atlanta's holdout on Trae Young's future is their hope that he lines up with Johnson and Daniels' trajectories. Because if they do, the Hawks have their first, second, and third legitimate options lined up for the future. Johnson's numbers in a half-season sample size speak for themselves, and if not for his injuries we might have been seeing Atlanta and the Knicks go for a round 2 of their Trae Young Era rivalry, rather than one pull far ahead of the other.
This may be cheating, but Johnson has made mini leaps in each of his first four years in the league. Don't be surprised if he goes for another.
Biggest Potential Leap: All-Star Starter