Atlanta has come a long way since the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals. And I don't mean in a good way, either. But I wouldn't be surprised if, in a weakened Eastern Conference, the Atlanta Hawks couldn't be a sneaky challenger for the conference throne. Here's why.
1. A weakened Eastern Conference
At least for one year, teams in the right position have a golden opportunity to fill the void left by the East's two top powerhouses. Both the conference's year-to-year best team and its reigning champs will have to get through 2026 without their leaders, and in Boston's case, a huge chunk of their core. When analysts can only find chemistry building as a net positive for a given team, that's not a good sign for that squad's playoff chances.
The Pacers and Celtics leave two guaranteed playoff spots up for grabs for 2026. It will be a mad scramble to fill the void, and Atlanta finds itself at the front of the pack. All because...
2. Atlanta was never really that far out of playoff contention
While the Hawks haven't found themselves playing late spring ball since 2023, to say that they've even had much of a drought since is a little disingenuous. Since Trae Young's third year in the league, Atlanta has never failed to finish the season as play in-eligible contenders. They were on the outside in 2024 and 2025 (10th and 9th seeds respectively), but Young & Co. have had a shot at the postseason each time.
Two of the teams the Hawks faced in the last two play-in tournaments, Chicago and Miami, are likely in way more dire straits than Atlanta is currently in (seriously, Pat Riley? Building around Tyler Herro as your 1A?). Orlando's success leans on several x-factors, including the developing games of their biggest stars Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
Meanwhile, Atlanta knows what its floor is, especially with Trae Young leading the way. The best part? They're not even likely to scrape that floor in 2026. In fact, the Hawks might be my pick to win the Southeast Division outright. Because this is the first Hawks team in Trae Young's career that doesn't totally go where he follows...
3. The Hawks won't need to rely on Trae Young
Before you overreact, I'm not saying that Young is about to fall off a cliff. You can pencil him in for an efficient 25 and 10 average right now. But we all know what his squads are: hyper-efficient offenses that lose all of their points back because they couldn't stop a stiff breeze.
Not so now in 2026. Atlanta now has multiple ways to win: Trae Young's offense can run most low to mid-tier NBA teams out of the gym on its own. But for the top half, Atlanta now has two incredible defenders in DPOY runner-up Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson. Even Kristaps Porziņģis can still summon unicorn-like shot altering in his older age.
And it doesn't come down to just defense, either. Daniels is also the reigning Most Improved Player, and Jalen Johnson was averaging close to 20 and 10 when he got injured. And as a cherry on top, Zaccharie Risascher finished second in Rookie of the Year voting. That is a total of three budding stars growing in the heart of Georgia, and the weight of the world is no longer solely on Young's shoulders. Throw in a deep bench (by the way, Porziņģis likely isn't even starting on the Hawks, a phrase I'd never thought I'd say), and Atlanta is almost guaranteed to improve beyond a mere bubble team to be stepped on during the play-in. A top six seed is likely in their future.
And with the East vacated, top six might just be their new floor.