The Giannis Antetokounmpo trade sweepstakes hasn't officially kicked off yet, but it may only be a matter of time. A 45-point beatdown at the hands of the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday sent an emphatic message that this Bucks team is nowhere near championship contention, with or without Giannis.
In early December, ESPN's Shams Charania reported that Antetokounmpo and his agent were already discussing with the Bucks "whether his best fit is staying or a move elsewhere." A "source with direct knowledge of the situation described it as 'the writing is on the wall' on the inevitable outcome for Antetokounmpo unless there is a dramatic turn of events in the Bucks' season," Charania added. (A 45-point loss to the rebuilding Nets is not what the doctor ordered in that regard!)
According to Eric Nehm of The Athletic, the Bucks "aren't waving the white flag on Antetokounmpo's future in Milwaukee just yet. Instead, league sources said they're considering making yet another significant addition that might aid their chances of convincing him to stay." However, they only have one first-round pick which they can trade at this year's deadline, which limits their options for a bigger swing.
If the Bucks do decide to change course and listen to offers for the Greek Freak, 29 other teams figure to place at least an exploratory call. However, the following teams should tread cautiously before jumping head-first into the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Did the Thunder's loss to the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Cup semifinal expose some cracks in their otherwise seemingly flawless foundation? Will it cause them to re-evaluate their roster and take a home run swing on Antetokounmpo? Would pairing the Greek Freak with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander be the second coming of the Steph Curry-Kevin Durant Warriors?
The Thunder have avoided the temptation to accelerate their rebuild to date, and it paid off in their first championship in franchise history last year, along with one of the best starts to a season ever this year. Recent history suggests that they'll continue along their current path and perhaps consider some smaller moves on the margins rather than a blockbuster.
Besides, even if the Thunder were tempted to join the bidding for Antetokounmpo, they realistically might have to wait until the offseason to do so. They signed both Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams to extensions this past offseason, which means both are poison-pilled for this year. The Bucks are far enough under the luxury-tax line that it might be possible to find a workable trade for both sides, but that would complicate matters.
The Thunder will have some difficult financial decisions to make once Holmgren and Williams' extensions kick in next year, beginning with whether to pick up their team options on Isaiah Hartenstein ($28.5 million) and Lu Dort ($18.2 million). For now, they're likely focused on becoming the first back-to-back champion since the late-2010s Warriors, not an all-in swing that could drastically shorten their wide-open title window.
San Antonio Spurs
Saturday's game against the Thunder was the first time that all four of Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper have suited up together. The result was a stunning win over the previously 24-1 Thunder and a berth in the NBA Cup final.
While Wemby and the guards have been the headliners for the Spurs this year, they've been getting contributions up and down the roster. Harrison Barnes is shooting a scorching 41.0 percent from three-point range. Julian Champagnie is averaging a career-high 11.0 points per game. Keldon Johnson is chipping in 12.7 points and 6.5 rebounds in only 23.6 minutes per game off the bench. Devin Vassell is shooting a career-best 39.7 percent from deep. And Luke Kornet has been a steady backup big.
Barnes, Kelly Olynyk and Jeremy Sochan are the only Spurs rotation players who are set to become free agents this coming offseason. Eight of their top nine players are under contract through at least 2026-27. In other words, they should feel little urgency to make a big swing right now. They're still in the exploration phase with their roster.
Wembanyama becomes eligible for an extension after this season, which will begin in 2027-28, while Fox's four-year max extension kicks in next year. Money will start to get tight for the Spurs once Castle and Harper are up for new deals as well, but the Spurs still need to figure out which of their current pieces are long-term keepers before they start dangling any of them for Antetokounmpo or another star.
Houston Rockets
Despite losing Fred VanVleet to an ACL tear in the preseason, the Houston Rockets have kept right on humming along. They're currently fourth leaguewide in offensive rating and second in defensive rating, making them one of only two teams — along with the Thunder, naturally — to boast top-five marks in both categories.
They'd face a few hurdles if they wanted to join the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes, though. For one, they're hard-capped at the $195.9 million first apron, and they currently sit less than $1.3 million below it. So, they can't take back much more salary than they send out in any trade, whether it's for Giannis or someone else.
The Rockets can't trade Kevin Durant after signing him to a two-year, $90 million extension in October, which leaves them few avenues to get up to Antetokounmpo's $54.1 million salary. They'd either have to center a package around Alperen Şengün ($33.9 million) or VanVleet ($25.0 million) and then throw in additional salary from there.
The Rockets do have a few blue-chip prospects in Reed Sheppard ($10.6 million) and Amen Thompson ($9.7 million), and they could include Tari Eason ($5.7 million) as a sweetener as well. They also have a few primo draft assets, including a 2027 first-round pick swap with the Brooklyn Nets and fully unprotected first-round picks from the Phoenix Suns in 2027 and 2029. Would it be worth giving most (or all?) of that up for Antetokounmpo?
In an era where teams are leaning more on high-end depth than ever before, the Rockets might be better off standing pat for now and seeing how Şengün, Thompson and Sheppard continue to develop before making another big swing.
Atlanta Hawks
This may be the most controversial selection of the bunch. While the Thunder, Spurs and Rockets all currently sit in comfortable position in the cutthroat Western Conference, the Atlanta Hawks sit only ninth in the East.
This mostly comes down to the Bucks' asking price. Namely: Would they demand both Jalen Johnson and the better of their own 2026 first-round pick or the New Orleans Pelicans' first-round pick, or would they be OK with leaving one of those out of the deal?
If the Bucks were willing to take a deal built around Trae Young and the 2026 Bucks/Pelicans pick, that could be more enticing for the Hawks. After all, the Hawks have yet to sign Young to an extension, and he's set to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason if they don't reach a new deal with him before then. If they're reluctant about building around him moving forward, using his salary to acquire a star like Antetokounmpo would be far better than potentially losing him for nothing as a free agent.
But if the Bucks demand both Johnson and the 2026 pick, that's where the Hawks should draw the line. After all, Johnson is only in the first season of a five-year, $150 million contract that already ranks among the best in the league, and he's currently riding a franchise-record four-game streak of triple-doubles. According to the NBA, he's only the third player in league history to accomplish that before turning 24, joining Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson.
Johnson might not be completely untouchable — the Hawks would presumably offer him up for SGA — but he's right in that next tier.