The Milwaukee Bucks appear to have assumed too much when it comes to Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Consistently this summer, there were two narratives. There was the narrative built by ESPN’s Shams Charania that other teams were “keeping an eye” on Giannis’ situation in Milwaukee and the possibility he might ask out. Shams reported Giannis was keeping his options open, even as the long offseason settled in.
The Bucks, on the other hand, openly mocked this idea, posting on social media about being asleep after various Shams reports. Giannis seemed to buck back at the idea himself in various posts. Yet there was no “I am staying in Milwaukee” moment. The closest we got was the Bucks announcing they had signed Giannis’ brother, Thanasis Antetokounmpo to a deal.
It was thought we were done for a while.
Then came media day for the Bucks, where ownership said there was a meeting where Giannis reconfirmed his committment to the Bucks. When asked about it, Antetokounmpo said he did not recall that meeting.
The Bucks and Giannis are still not on the same page
Then Tuesday came a significant, if not definitive, addition to the story. Charania reported that this summer Giannis had explored other destinations, ultimately suggesting that if he was moved — without saying he wanted to be traded — that his preferred destination is the New York Knicks.
Not only that, but the two teams had discussions about trade frameworks that ultimately went nowhere based on the Knicks’ lack of assets and New York’s feeling that the Bucks weren’t actually serious in their willingness to engage in trade talks.
Since then, ESPN reported that Giannis and his agent have started surveying what teams could have a suitable trade package at the deadline to acquire him.
This last part is significant; if you’re trying to navigate a trade with limited suitors, you can force the issue and say you’ll only play for one team, hurting your team’s leverage and burning bridges with the fans and franchise. This approach suggests that Giannis is at least somewhat concerned about making sure the Bucks aren’t ruined on his way out.
As for whether the actual, cold, hard trade demand will come, much of it rests on how the Bucks perform out of the gate. Milwaukee added Myles Turner and added a few veteran bench pieces, but they also lost Brook Lopez. The core of the title team is gone, and they’re banking on the team that made a late run with Kevin Porter Jr., AJ Green, and Gary Trent Jr. can duplicate that success.
They badly need Kyle Kuzma to look something like an NBA player.
Milwaukee’s first 28 games before Christmas are light. Half of those games are against playoff teams, but that includes two games vs. Indiana without Tyrese Haliburton and play-in winner Miami. They have more rest advantage games than rest disadvantage, travel the fourth-fewest miles of any team in that stretch, and have only five back-to-backs.
If they can’t get a strong start, the pressure will ramp up considerably.
There’s also the possibility of the opposite effect. Teams often fracture when under the spotlight of trade speculation. When players don’t think the best player will be there, team goals take a backseat to worrying about their own futures and whether they’ll be included in deals or remain on a non-contending team (especially in Milwaukee, although I find the city awesome).
So while it’s easy to say the pressure is on the Bucks to win out of the gate to keep Giannis in Milwaukee, the opposite might be true. The specter of Giannis leaving could create a self-fulfilling prophecy that hastens his departure.
Good luck, Doc Rivers!