The saga of restricted free agency has been trying for a handful of young, intriguing NBA players this summer. In early September, Brooklyn Nets guard Cam Thomas chose to accept his $6 million qualifying offer to remain in Brooklyn, seemingly betting on himself in search of a larger commitment a year from now in unrestricted free agency. Golden State Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga is also reported to be considering a similar choice, with a longstanding face-off with the Warriors at a standstill and the chance to pick up a $7.9 million check while guaranteeing unrestricted free agency.
While Thomas and Kuminga are not alone in their situations given the presence of Josh Giddey and Quentin Grimes, it has long been forecasted that Thomas and Kuminga were the least likely to secure long-term deals in their current spots. As such, Thomas is already in the 2026 free agent pool and, with the chance that Kuminga joins him, it is interesting to look at what the current 2026 crop looks like.
Interestingly, nearly a dozen teams are in line for potential (and meaningful) cap space in the summer of 2026. The range of teams stretches from rebuilding outfits like Brooklyn, Utah, and Charlotte to more established squads like the Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, and Detroit Pistons. There will be a great deal of attention paid to the market in kind.
A potentially star-studded free agent class
Things can change rapidly with the prevalence of extensions, but there are some massive names that could hit the market in July. LeBron James and Kevin Durant are clearly at the top of the list. James could retire, but he remains an All-NBA player, and there has been plenty of speculation that he could continue his career outside of Los Angeles. As for Durant, he has not yet agreed to an extension after his trade to Houston, and if that doesn't happen, the chance of a move could be there.
From there, All-Star guards Trae Young and James Harden have player options to consider, and other players are intriguing. Austin Reaves has a (cheap) player option in Los Angeles that he is likely to decline. Coby White and Kristaps Porziņģis have clear appeal. Norman Powell is coming off the best season of his career. Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, and Deandre Ayton have player options. What about John Collins, Anfernee Simons, and Rui Hachimura? Even Isaiah Hartenstein has a team option in OKC. It could get crazy.
Don't forget the restricted free agents
Remember the situation that Thomas, Kuminga, Josh Giddey, Quentin Grimes, and others were in this summer? Well, that could happen to a number of players a year from now.
As of early September, only a small handful of members of the 2022 NBA Draft class have signed extensions, headlined by Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams. Undoubtedly, more will agree to deals with their incumbent teams over the next several weeks before the late October deadline. Still, some players will hit the market in restricted free agency.
Right now, the potential class includes clear starting-caliber players like Walker Kessler, Dyson Daniels, Christian Braun, Keegan Murray, Jalen Duren, Shaedon Sharpe, and Mark Williams, plus high-upside guys like Tari Eason and Jaden Ivey. It would almost certainly be better for Kuminga and Thomas if a bunch of those young players signed market-value extensions in the near future.
The overall landscape
Ultimately, the projected free agent pool as of early September will almost certainly not match the actual pool in July. That is the name of the game with an extension-heavy league. Still, adding Thomas (for sure) and Kuminga (potentially) would bring two young names with clear scoring upside. For teams that may not be ready to win yet but also boasting the ability to wield cap space, it may not be hard to find potential fits.