Chet Holmgren landed at No. 6 on FanSided's 25-under-25 NBA Player Rankings this season, ranking the best young players in the NBA. Check out the rest of the list here.
We've all heard the news: San Antonio Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama is the Defensive Player of the Year favorite for the rest of his career.
Not so fast, Oklahoma City's Chet Holmgren will remind everyone how much of a unicorn he is, too. Holmgren is a very live dog to compete for that award this year and for the rest of his prime. He'll have the team success that's usually needed.
Holmgren needs to log minutes in addition to OKC remaining an elite Western Conference team. He iron-man'ed his rookie (eligible) season, appearing in all 82. A hip fracture limited Holmgren to 32 regular-season games last year, but there was an overwhelming amount of evidence in the playoffs that led one to believe Holmgren is in line for an All-Star season. His blend of offensive versatility and his nobody's allowed defense will drive his All-Star and Defensive Player of the Year bid; OKC cracking 60 wins again will be the cherry on top.
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Chet Holmgren could win DPOY and make the All-Star game in 2026
Maybe it would've been clearer if Holmgren did it over the regular season, but nobody was allowed in the paint with him at the rim last year. Holmgren skyscrapes with the best of them to erase shots, but the way he deters scorers from attempting shots is even more advantageous for OKC.
Holmgren's A+ rim deterrence grade (Bball-Index) makes OKC one of the scariest defenses. It's already an impossible task getting by Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Alex Casuso, and Lu Dort. Let's say you are Tom Cruise and do the impossible, you have a lanky 7-foot-1 disciplined rim protector hanging around the paint, daring you to go up.
That type of rim protection stymies offenses as opponents repeatedly chose to avoid Holmgren at the hoop and reset their offense. Victor Wembanyama has an A+ rim deterrence grade, too. We've seen countless scorers terrified with him at the cup. But from an analytical view, Holmgren was better protecting the rim in his limited time last year.
According to PBP stats, opponents shot 49 percent on 367 rim attempts with Victor Webmanyama being the nearest defender at the rim. That's an elite number. He missed the second half of the season himself; he would've defended more shots like Holmgren had they played more games (Wemby played 3065 possessions).
In 1855 possessions, Holmgren held opponents to a suffocating 44 percent on 200 rim attempts. He played less than Wemby, but he was more impactful in this particular stat. Once the whole picture is painted, it's true that Wemby deters more shots (slightly) and has less of an established defensive infrastructure around him, but it's unknown if that context will work in Wemby's favor in the upcoming DPOY race.
Sure, it seems like the media has been salivating to crown Wemby the next king, but it will be hard to ignore Holmgren if he is more successful challenging shots at the cup and anchoring OKC to the number one defense again.
The reigning DPOY, Evan Mobley, will be in the race, but Holmgren and Wemby's availability and rim protection will outweigh Mobley's versatility for this regular-season award. Holmgren is attempting to do something else Mobley has already done: make the All-Star game.
The Thunder already have two All-Stars in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, but they did win 68 games last year. Winning that many games opens up the conversation for three All-Stars. That's a conversation Holmgren was firmly in last year before he got injured.
Besides the wins, Holmgren will be a viable All-Star candidate this season. The things he does on defense can't be understated, but what he does on offense is just as essential.
A stretch center that truly stretches the floor is one of the most valuable archetypes. Holmgren shoots 37 percent from three on decent volume, but they aren't open. Per Bball-Index, Holmgren's 3-point shot quality is a D+. A higher shot quality equals more open looks. Holmgren isn't getting those open shots; he's bringing the center out to the perimeter, creating driving lanes for SGA and Jdub.
His 3-point touch carries over to his rim finishing. Holmgren has some guard-like acrobatic finishes in his game, which he pulled out in the Finals.
I'd argue Holmgren needs more power than finesse in his game, but he is a great finisher at the rim nonetheless. Teams opt to put smalls on Holmgren due to his thin frame, and he needs to punish those more this season. That shouldn't be a problem if he adds more functional strength to go with his length and soft touch.
Making the All-Star game in his third season will mean Holmgren took a statistical leap. The 15 points and eight rebounds he averages now are impactful, but fans will be more inclined to submit Holmgren as a frontcourt All-Star if he ups his points per game and handles the glass a little more.
Regardless of what the fans do, the coaches who vote on the All-Star reserves will acknowledge Holmgren's impact on both sides of the floor. All Holmgren has to do is stay available, and the individual accolades will come pouring in this season.