Franz Wagner landed at No. 9 on FanSided's 25-under-25 NBA Player Rankings this season, ranking the best young players in the NBA. Check out the rest of the list here.
There is one thing standing in the way of Franz Wagner being a top-20 player in the NBA. That’s it. One thing.
Since his rookie season, the trend has been the same: the Magic are better with Franz Wagner on the floor. Last season the Magic won his minutes by 6.0 points per 100 possessions. They lost the minutess without him by 0.9. The numbers for him vs. Paolo Banchero (-0.6 with Banchero, +0.9 without) are stark.
That’s not Banchero’s fault; the offense was brutal, and Wagner and Jalen Suggs missed most of the season.
But it is glaring how good the Magic are with Wagner. He’s that kind of player. He makes smart reads, he has the size and physicality to finish at the rim. He has good touch on runners and pull-up jumpers. He can rebound and then run the floor against imbalanced defenses.
There is always a bubbling question of whether Wagner is the Magic’s best player. Banchero is such a big, gifted scorer, and he has great passing instincts. He was the No.1 pick for a reason.
But Wagner is the kind of No.2 that you always wonder if he contributes more to winning. Wagner has never been the one with the keys to the offense. He’s the No.2 and plays in tandem with Banchero. But the total skillset on Wagner is more polished, better refined.
So what’s the one thing holding him back?
It’s that darn 3-pointer.
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If Franz Wagner is hitting 3s, the sky is the limit
The Magic were dead last last season in made 3-pointers last season, by a pretty significant margin. They’ve done a lot in the offseason to try to fix that by bringing in Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones, and by adding God Shamgod to the coaching staff to overhaul the offensive flow. The early preseason returns are positive.
But Wagner shot 29.5 percent from 3-point range last season after shooting 28.2 percent the year before.
Banchero wasn’t much better at 32 percent, but if Banchero is going to have the ball and operate inside the arc as often as he does, Wagner has to be able to space around him. Without that 3-pointer, there’s only so far the Magic offense can go. It can be better in the stagger minutes with one or the other, but if they want it to hum with both stars, Wagner will have to be able to space accurately.
If he can’t, there’s only so far the Magic offense can improve to. Even with an elite defense, if they want to make the leap to contender, the offense has to be within range of the top 10.
But that’s a short-term problem. The long-term prospects for Wagner are impossibly bright. He’s only starting to scratch the surface of his prime. The modern NBA is so dependent on versatility. You need to be able to drive, finish, pass, rebound, and shoot, especially on the wings. Wagner has all of that… as long as he’s within 17 feet.
From 17 feet to the three-point line, Wagner’s efficiency drops to 21 percent. That efficiency has to go up.
The Magic have all the pieces. Defense. Passing. Physicality. Finishing. Versatility. But none of it matters if they can’t throw the round thing through the circle with the net. Wagner is as much on the hook for that as Banchero.
But instead of applying that criticism, think about what happens if the jumper does fall. Wagner would have it all. He’d be an awesome No.2 who could operate as a No.1 when necessary. He’s the complete package if that jumper settles in.
As is, Wagner is already a player who consistently makes winning plays and adds the skills you need to convert shooting into superior play.
It’s all right there for Wagner, just a jumpshot away.