From NBA Playoffs sweeps to Game 7s: Predicting how long each first-round series goes

It is a truth universally acknowledged that predicting the results of basketball games is really hard. 

Of course, most sports have that problem, otherwise they wouldn’t be particularly exciting, nor would they make any money. But in hockey, football, soccer (and perhaps baseball), there is this element of one team being harder-better-faster-stronger that makes predicting things feel easier. In basketball, we have this horrible extra variable called “shooting variance” where even the best three-point shooting teams don’t even top 40 percent. A lot can happen when the ball is in the air.

But after a weekend of games and 22 hours on my couch, we at least have some data points to see where the first-round playoff series might be going. A few teams looked utterly overmatched, while others were surprisingly competitive. We only had one “upset,” per se, but I think there are lots of interesting things to unpack from our weekend trip-to-my-fridge-between-games backpack.

1. Boston Celtics (1-0) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (0-1)

Series prediction after Game 1: Celtics in 4

I have a lot of practice predicting Celtics sweeps. I correctly called that they would sweep the Indiana Pacers in 2024, and incorrectly ran it back in 2025 against the Orlando Magic. Here’s the key to this esoteric art: physicality. When a team is so completely, profoundly, utterly, whatever-other-adjective-that-means-totally overmatched physically in a series, that is when it’s time to bring out the broomsticks. 

The difference in this series shows up on your pediatrician’s growth percentile charts. Philadelphia’s best players are small guards, and their supporting players are medium-sized wings and centers. Boston, meanwhile, have Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, two imposing forwards who cannot and will not be guarded by anyone the 76ers have on their roster.

You could talk me into this series getting back to Boston if Joel Embiid was playing and Philadelphia had a rim protector, but without him, the 76ers looked like the single worst team the Celtics had played the entire year — it was borderline unprofessional. There is no rational basis to project Philly will win a game, so I will not.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder (1-0) vs. Phoenix Suns (0-1)

Series prediction after Game 1: Thunder in 3 … okay fine 4

Oh, you thought we had no rational basis to predict the 76ers would take a game? Well we don’t have one for Phoenix either. In fact, we don’t have an irrational basis to predict that, nor do we have a philosophical basis, a metaphysical basis, a scientific or a pseudo-scientific basis; we are completely without a basis. We are utterly basis-less. 

I’m not going to bemoan the point. The Thunder shot whatever from the field and still won by almost 40. If Phoenix takes a game, I’ll be legitimately shocked. Oklahoma City is in get-out-healthy mode, because this is a marathon (happy Marathon Monday to my fellow Bostonians), not a sprint.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (1-0) vs. Toronto Raptors (0-1)

Series prediction after Game 1: Cavaliers in 5

It wasn’t an overly competitive weekend, and by my head calculations, there was not a single fourth-quarter lead change all weekend. Cleveland dispatched of Toronto fairly handily, and the final score looks a good bit closer than the game actually was. I was tempted to go Cavs in 4, since they will be heavily favored in every game of the series, even on the road. The sweep was making eyes at me.

But we have standards around here for predicting a sweep; your opponent has to be so overmatched, especially after one single game, for me to go on the record saying this will be a 4-0 Certified First-Round Evisceration (CFRE). What’s separating them? Well, Toronto could score with Cleveland throughout the game, but couldn’t stop a parked car the entire afternoon. Both teams shot a very high percentage from 3, and I could see Toronto taking a game if they can score their way out of a jam when Cleveland is cold. Sweeps are, simply, too unlikely to throw around willy-nilly like a parade float tossing candy to onlooking kids. We have to check ourselves.

4. Denver Nuggets (1-0) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (0-1)

Series prediction after Game 1: Nuggets in 5

Perhaps the opposite side of the above discussion, I was tempted to predict this to go six or seven for no other reason than I want this to be a competitive series. It was my (and everyone else’s) pick for most interesting first-round bout, and I don’t want to admit any more than you do that this might be a solved game. But I’m zagging against my own desires; this was a pretty convincing win.

I was shocked throughout the broadcast that neither Candace Parker nor Dwyane Wade mentioned how injured Anthony Edwards looked throughout the game. He still had a really solid game, but he wasn’t close to the assertive, destroyer-class force they will need him to be to actually make this a series. Down the stretch, he didn’t necessarily look confident getting his own shot, and his teammates were far too passive as Denver grabbed the initiative and ran back to … well, Denver. I guess everyone is still in Denver. 

Meanwhile, Nikola Jokić did not even have that great a game (he had a triple-double, but trust me, it wasn’t that great). The Nuggets didn’t shoot well or take care of the ball; they just took a lead and figured out the end of the game, refusing to let the Wolves back in. It almost feels like they’ve solved the geometry of this matchup after so many meetings. 

5. New York Knicks (1-0) vs. Atlanta Hawks (0-1)

Series prediction after Game 1: Knicks in 5

Neither the Knicks nor the Hawks really played their best game on Saturday, but the Hawks just ran out of ideas down the stretch. They don’t have enough players to compete in this series, and the Jonathan Kuminga/Gabe Vincent/Zaccharie Risacher minutes were not, what's the word I'm looking for ... competitive basketball. 

Still, CJ McCollum and Jalen Johnson were impressive offensively and didn’t look particularly bothered by the Knicks’ defenders. I still don’t know what to do with Mikal Bridges, who almost feels like a role player at this point, but the Knicks are a far better team. I could see Atlanta taking a game, but not much more.

6. San Antonio Spurs (1-0) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (0-1)

Series prediction after Game 1: Spurs in 5

Deni Avdija continues to impress me as a first option, and the Trail Blazers were pretty competitive all night in a game that was closer than its final score. But they hit the same wall the Hawks did against the Knicks: they just ran out of options before the Spurs did.

The Blazers lack offensive firepower across their roster. I’m not exactly sure if Toumani Camara can be out there with Matisse Thybulle, or if Jerami Grant can really be out on the court at all if he’s not going to shoot the basketball. Grant was guarding Victor Wembanyama throughout the night, but ended a putrid -25 and only took six shots.

I think Portland could win a game, but not two. Definitely not three. Four is out of the question. Five? Get a load of this guy.

7. Detroit Pistons (0-1) vs. Orlando Magic (1-0)

Series prediction after Game 1: Pistons in 6

Guess who’s back (ba da da) back again (ba da da) Orlando’s back (ba da da) tell a friend. The Magic were evaporating in front of us like some water you poured on a hot skillet, but now they went to Detroit and just … beat the Detroit Pistons, the number one seed, in Game 1? Look at that!

This is an extension of my Philly-Boston point, as the Magic can physically hang with the Pistons and might actually be a more physical team. That’s going to work in the playoffs; I would be remiss if I suddenly predicted the Magic to win the series, but it’s conceivable that they could win another game.

The big problem for Detroit is how not-shocking this all was. I was sitting there, eating some veggie chips and watching this happen, and was not really that surprised whatsoever. This is an inexperienced Pistons team, sure, but it also just visually made sense that they were losing. They never really threatened Orlando’s lead, and didn’t look like they had much of a chance to either. The Magic were, shockingly, focused and committed all night. Their fans have been through it this year, so that’s nice for everyone.

8. Los Angeles Lakers (1-0) vs. Houston Rockets (0-1)

Series prediction after Game 1: Rockets in 7

This game was a microcosm of the Houston Rockets Experience, which sounds like the worst Disneyland ride ever: poorly timed injuries, roster redundancy and not really looking like a competent basketball team at the ends of games. Kevin Durant surprisingly missed Game 1 with a freak knee injury, and while I imagine he will return at some point during this series … what was that in Game 1?

I would love to say LeBron James and Luke Kennard carried the team to the promised land on their backs, but (while they both had great games) this was a Rockets disasterclass more than it had anything to do with the Lakers. I was watching with a friend, and circa the mid second quarter, he turned and said “I think the Rockets might need to trade everyone.”

Upon inquiring what he meant, he explained that Alperen Şengün not shooting 3s or protecting the rim is too much to hide, that he’s not sure any of the Rockets’ many wings are any good, and where was Dorian Finney-Smith? (He had been benched two weeks ago). Ultimately, I think the Rockets will win this series unless Luka Dončić comes back or Durant doesn’t. But it is going to be way closer than I thought. 

More NBA news and analysis:

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow