Health is Victor Wembanyama's biggest obstacle in the NBA GOAT race

Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals served as a wake-up call to the rest of the NBA: Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs have officially arrived.

In the Spurs' 122-115 double-overtime win over the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday, Wembanyama became the youngest player in league history to rack up at least 40 points and 20 rebounds in a playoff game. He's only the fourth player ever to have a 40-20 game in the conference finals, joining three Hall of Famers in Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Moses Malone and Charles Barkley.

This wasn't even Wembanyama's first history-making playoff performance. In Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals, he had 11 points, 15 rebounds and an NBA-playoff-record 12 blocks against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Two games later, he had 39 points, 15 rebounds and five blocks, making him one of only five players in NBA history to hit all of those marks in the playoffs. (He was the youngest to do that, too.)

It's becoming more clear with each passing day: If Wembanyama stays healthy and has a 15-year NBA career, Michael Jordan's time atop the league's Greatest of All Time throne could be in legitimate danger.

The rise of Wemby

Wembanyama just turned 22 in January. This is only his third NBA season and his first playoff run. He also just became the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year in league history this season.

He can do this, too.

The audacity of that shot left his rookie teammate stunned.

That was hardly Wemanyama's only play that caused jaws to drop on Monday.

And those two were just in regulation alone. He did all three of these in the playoffs, along with soaring over Jalen Williams to grab an offensive rebound and then laying it up right over his head.

No player in NBA history has had Wemby's unique combination of skill set and size. Up until the past 10-15 years, most 7-footers were back-to-the-basket, low-post specialists. Few even had three-point range.

While 7-footers are now routinely shooting 3s—Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, Brook Lopez and Donovan Clingan chief among them—none of them have the same type of defensive impact as Wembanyama. Embiid and Lopez were both great defenders in their respective primes, but neither inspired nearly as much fear around the basket as the 7'4" Frenchman.

Don't just take my word for it, though. John Hollinger of The Athletic spent time at the NBA draft combine asking executives around the league what they thought of Wembanyama. One veteran executive said he wasn't only the best player in the league; "he's the best player I've ever seen."

NBA executives aren't the only ones who hold similar opinions, as Hollinger noted.

"Wemby is probably the greatest defender I ever played against," Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels, who's no slouch on defense himself, told reporters. "Him being so tall and so long, it was hard to get to the rim. … I was able to get to my spots, but playing Wemby, he’s huge. He’s so tall. He’s the greatest defender I ever played against."

Veteran Timberwolves guard Mike Conley described how Wembanyama changes what opposing teams can do on the court.

"Wemby, obviously, with him being in the paint, you can’t just drive it and go dunk on somebody or go finish or draw two in," he said, per Hollinger. "They don’t have to help from any other side because they just funnel everything down to Wemby."

When asked to make his MVP case earlier this season, Wembanyama pointed to his defense as being an undervalued facet of his game.

"My first one would be that defense is 50% of the game and that it is undervalued so far in the MVP race," he said. "I believe I'm the most impactful player defensively in the league."

That's an ironic thing for the first unanimous DPOY in NBA history to say, but it's also arguably true when it comes to the MVP race. Wembanyama clearly is seen as the best defensive player in the league. Is the gap between him and the next-closest MVP candidate on defense greater than the gap between them on offense?

And once he starts stacking MVPs and championships to pair with his DPOY awards—not if, but when—he'll start to climb in the greatest-of-all-time conversation.

How high can he climb?

Wembanyama is going to be the overwhelming favorite to win DPOY every season in which he plays at least 65 games. If the NBPA somehow convinces the NBA to tweak the 65-game rule before the current CBA expires, that might be all the better for Wemby's DPOY and MVP chances moving forward.

The Spurs have been deliberate about not overworking Wembanyama during the regular season. He played only 29.2 minutes per game this past season, although that didn't stop him from averaging 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and a league-leading 3.1 blocks.

But in the playoffs, the Spurs are taking the training wheels off. Wembanyama played a career-high 49 minutes in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.

If Wembanyama continues to be a playoff riser, he'll soon start to stack titles, which is a prerequisite for the GOAT conversation. MJ famously went 6-for-6 in the NBA Finals, while LeBron James has gone 4-of-10.

In the second-apron era, it'll be difficult for any team to keep its core together long enough to go on an MJ- or LeBron-esque run. But since the Spurs have Harper and Stephon Castle on rookie-scale contracts for three and two more years, respectively, they have time before they need to start making their toughest financial decisions.

As long as Wemby is upright, the Spurs should be in the title mix every year. After seeing what he's doing in the playoffs, nearly every player in the league will want to play with him. The Spurs should have the pick of the litter in both the trade and free-agent markets for the near future.

It all just comes down to Wembanyama's health.

Wemby was on track to win his first DPOY in 2024-25 until the Spurs' medical staff discovered a DVT in his right shoulder coming out of the All-Star break. He didn't have a recurrence of that this past season, but he did play in exactly 65 games—including the NBA Cup final—to qualify for postseason awards and not play a minute more.

Once players top 7 feet, their careers historically tend to get shortened by injuries. Wembanyama and the Spurs appear to be taking a smart approach to his body, but there's only so much they can do. Basketball is a physical game, especially in the playoffs.

As long as Wembanyama can avoid major injuries, his unparalleled upside gives him the best chance of anyone since LeBron to dethrone MJ as the NBA's GOAT.

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