If the Milwaukee Bucks change course and decide to listen to offers for Giannis Antetokounmpo before the Feb. 5 NBA trade deadline, a handful of contenders reportedly won't be joining the bidding.
On Sunday, Marc Stein of The Stein Line reported that "there is a growing belief among trade-trackers that San Antonio and Houston, like Oklahoma City, do not plan to join the chase for Antetokounmpo" in-season. That seemingly clears the way for a team like the Miami Heat to jump to the front of the bidding.
However, it's still unclear if they can offer one of their key trade chips.
Ahead of the NBA Cup final on Tuesday, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver was asked whether the Heat would be allowed to trade Terry Rozier, who remains under federal investigation for an illegal sports betting case.
"This is an unprecedented situation," Silver told reporters. "I think I'm incredibly sympathetic to the Heat and to their fans. But I think we're going to try to work something through, work this out with them. But there's no obvious solution here. I would just say that there's no doubt at the moment they have a player that can't perform services for them."
A week prior to Silver's comments, ESPN's Tim Bontemps and Bobby Marks reported that "it remains unclear what would happen if the Heat were to try to trade Rozier." Sources whom they spoke with expected that "if the Heat got close to trading Rozier, only then would Miami ask the league for clarity on whether such a trade would be allowed."
That puts the Heat at a major disadvantage when it comes to trading for Antetokounmpo or another star on a massive contract.
Rozier could be a key salary-matching chip
The Heat are currently $7.15 million below the $195.9 million first apron. Since they took back more salary than they sent out when they acquired Norman Powell in a three-team trade this past offseason, they're hard-capped at the first apron, which means they cannot exceed that line at any point between now and June 30.
Since the Heat are under the first apron, they are allowed to take back more salary in a trade than they send out, and they're also allowed to aggregate two or more smaller contracts to acquire a larger contract. However, if they swung a multi-player deal to acquire Giannis or another star, they'd have to leave themselves enough room under the first apron to fill out the rest of their roster with free-agent signings.
The Greek Freak is making $54.1 million this year. At a bare minimum, the Heat would need to send out roughly $47.0 million in salary to acquire him, and that's assuming they receive just as many players back as they send out. Still, that's the key salary figure to keep in mind.
Any Heat trade package for Antetokounmpo would presumably be built around either Bam Adebayo ($37.1 million) or Tyler Herro ($31.0 million). The Heat could tack on additional salary with Andrew Wiggins ($28.2 million), Powell ($20.5 million), Davion Mitchell ($20.5 million) or Simone Fontecchio ($8.3 million). However, Rozier's $26.6 million expiring contract could also appeal to the Bucks if they want salary-cap relief as part of an Antetokounmpo trade.
The Bucks could (should?) also look to offload Kyle Kuzma ($22.4 million) as part of the deal to free up their cap sheet even more. If they went that route, they'd be sending out $76.5 million in salary, which means the Heat would have to trade away at least $69.4 million to avoid bumping into the first apron. They could still get there without including Rozier—Herro, Wiggins, Mitchell and Fontecchio would do the trick—but it would be far easier for them if Rozier could be part of the deal.
As Bontemps and Marks pointed out, there is precedent for someone dealing with legal issues to be trade-eligible. In September 2023, Kevin Porter Jr. was arrested and charged with assault and strangulation. One month later, the Rockets traded him and two second-round picks to the Thunder, who immediately waived him, for Victor Oladipo and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Any team that trades for Rozier would likely do the same.
The NBA is putting the Heat at a disadvantage by not making an official ruling about whether Rozier is trade-eligible. He could be a key salary-matching component in a trade for the Greek Freak or another star. The league should decide one way or the other before trade season starts heating up.