There is no question that Darius Garland has been hooping since arriving in The City of Angels. The thing we often miss as fans when discussing trades is that both teams can come away winners in a given transaction. The aforementioned deal between the Los Angeles Clippers and Cleveland Cavaliers is one of those instances.
What James Harden gives the Cleveland Cavaliers
Garland may be a decade younger and the better bet to make an All-Star game in the 2030s, but the Cavaliers have title aspirations to worry about. They can't be fixated on the future. Their long-term is right now.
Outside of being more reliable and giving them more matchup versatility on defense, there is one key wrinkle Harden gives this Cleveland team that Garland never could — he is a proven closer.
This sentence may sound strange at first, especially given Harden's perceived reputation as a playoff "chocker." But even if you are of the belief that Harden's game nosedives in the postseason, there is a big difference between playing poorly in a high-leverage game and closing a close competition out in the waning moments.
For his career, Harden teams have tended to perform pretty well in the clutch. With the exception of last year, Harden led teams have finished in the top ten in the NBA in clutch time (defined as a game that is within five points with under five minutes in the game) net rating every season since 2019 (per NBA.com).
Cleveland is already seeing this effect. Before trading for Harden, the Cavaliers were 11-14 with a pedestrian plus-0.6 net rating (13th) in clutch situations. But since his debut, they are 9-4 (most wins in that span) with a plus-23.3 net rating (eighth).
If you've ever read a paper from the Sloan Conference, you are probably familiar with the idea that great teams don't normally rely on pulling off games in the clutch. They win games handedly. That is true, but you also need to be able to gut a game out here and there (see Game 4 of the Oklahoma City Thunder's Conference Semifinals series last season).
Cleveland has not been a great clutch team during the Donovan Mitchell era. In playoff games that fall under the clutch definition we outlined above, they hold a 2-6 record. You don't win championships with that kind of record.
How is James Harden helping them in the clutch?
When the game is close late, things really tend to slow down. Teams buckle down on defense and those easy buckets that you got in transition are no longer there. To navigate these situations, you need to be able to play strong halfcourt offense.
Harden has played just over 30 clutch minutes in Cleveland, totaling 25 points and 7 assists to just one turnover, with a 73.2 true shooting percentage. Turn those numbers into per-36-minute averages and you get 29.5 points, 8.2 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.2 steals.
Harden has been one of the best halfcourt offensive players for the last decade and a half. In his five seasons prior to this one, Harden was in the 86th percentile or higher in points added per halfcourt play (per Cleaning the Glass). Before being traded from the Clippers, Los Angeles was getting 9.9 more points per 100 halfcourt possessions with Harden on the floor than when he was on the bench (97th percentile).
He hasn't had the same on/off impact with Cleveland (yet). That is likely due to his small sample size with the team (19 games) and his minutes being staggered with Mitchell. But based on the shift in their clutch performances, you can see that the Harden effect is in full swing.