Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Los Angeles Lakers face significant challenges in the postseason due to their poor performance against top-tier opponents this season.
- A key metric reveals the Lakers are being outscored significantly in matchups against elite teams, mirroring struggles seen in other playoff-bound squads.
- But they aren't the only playoff team that has struggled against top teams and could be in over their head early in the postseason.
The playoffs are harder than the regular season. Part of that is all the pressure that comes with expectations and the looming threat of elimination.
But the main reason is that all the bad teams are gone. There is no one to beat up on anymore. You have to beat the best to be the best. That is why, when comparing teams, it can be misleading to look at raw net rating, as some teams stat pad their numbers by slaying weaker opponents.
Fortunately, websites like Cleaning the Glass, track how well teams far against top ten teams in the league. Using this can be a great way to predict postseason success. In the last three seasons, the team that won the NBA Championship held a top four point differential against opponents who ranked top 10 in point differential during the regular season.
Looking at this also signals to us who won't cut it against tougher competition. So, here are a few of those teams. Warning: some of these names could surprise you.
Philadelphia 76ers
Yes, the Philadelphia 76ers haven't technically clinched a playoff spot yet. However, given that they get two chances at home, it is highly likely that this is coming. According to The Analyst's Playoff Prediction Model, the 76ers have a 75.7% chance of making it to the true postseason.
However, it doesn't seem like they will be making much noise when they get there. Not only are they a combined 2-6 against the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics (their two possible first round opponents), but they also boast the worst point differential against top ten teams of any of the 20 teams remaining (ranking 25th overall).
Los Angeles Lakers
Losing Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves for (likely) the entirety of the first round is a bad beat, but even before that, the Los Angeles Lakers have struggled to perform against great teams all season.
The Lakers are getting outscored in games against top ten teams by -8.8 points per 100 possessions. The only teams that are still standing that have a worse mark than that are the 76ers and Portland Trail Blazers. Plus, their point differential is over five points worse than the next worst team among teams with home field advantage in the first round.
The Lakers faring so poorly in this stat makes sense as only one team (the Milwaukee Bucks) is outperforming their expected record more than them.
Toronto Raptors
As a five seed in the first round that is mostly healthy, you'd think the Toronto Raptors would have a decent chance of winning their series. However, FanDuel only gives them a 21.3% chance (based on their implied odds) of advancing past the Cleveland Cavaliers.
That is probably because they have not played well against high end teams. This year, the Raptors are 7-22 with a -8 per 100 point differential (17th in the NBA) against top ten teams. Despite the two teams being six games apart in record, the Cavaliers should be considered heavy favorites in this series.
Boston Celtics
This is the real shocking one. The Boston Celtics have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2025-26 season, and many people think they are going to be the team to come out of the Eastern Conference (FanDuel has them with the highest odds).
But the Celtics have been below-average against top end teams this season. Of the 20 teams still standing, the Celtics are 12th in point differential against top ten teams. I still really like their chances of making a deep run in the postseason. But if they don't, this may be the reason why.
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