The NBA finale can be a cathartic moment for an NBA franchise. For the Milwaukee Bucks, the NBA Finals were illuminating. For one, they know the Bucks know the pain of losing their franchise talisman to a season-ending, potentially career-altering injury. However, Tyrese Haliburton’s magic began early against the Milwaukee Bucks. His four-point play at the end of regulation during their March 11 regular-season win over the Bucks was a playoff preview.
Back in late April, Jon Horst was bracing for the nuclear option and shopping Giannis Antetokounmpo to a slew of contenders trying to get over the hump. They’d just suffered a first-round gentleman’s sweep after a season in which Antetokounmpo’s running mate, Khris Middleton, was traded, along with a promising young guard, for professional bricklayer Kyle Kuzma.
Kuzma ended his season in a generational funk, putting up a Tony Snell memorial statline in Game 1 while he got cardio, tallying just 29 points for the series. Brook Lopez stepped up, but returning him at 38 is financially and logically tenuous. The gut punch was Damian Lillard rupturing his Achilles.
However, a funny thing happened. Indiana sliced through the playoffs like a katana, thwarting destiny like a Marvel variant, and nearly stole a Larry O’Brien trophy along the way. On one end, Haliburton represents the volatility of the modern NBA, especially in the Eastern Conference.
At some point, the Bucks began signalling that a retool around their 30-year-old star wouldn’t be that farfetched. After all, Giannis Antetokounmpo is as much of a difference maker as Haliburton.
Hope may drive the Bucks insane
On Bill Simmons’ Game 7 reaction podcast, The Ringer’s NBA analyst Zach Lowe hinted at a similar sentiment an anonymous general manager shared that he gleaned from the Pacers' run.
“Hope. We take hope because they are a study in alchemy and the whole adding up to way more than the sum of its parts.” Lowe summarized.
Offseason discussions between Horst and Doc Rivers imply that they’ve scuttled the idea of starting from scratch. Presumably, they are one of the teams studying Indiana’s blueprint and imagining themselves in the reflection. It wouldn’t be surprising to find out that Horst is the exec Lowe spoke to.
While basketball operations chiefs around the league channel their hokiest Andy Dufresne aphorisms, allow me to paraphrase The Shawshank Redemption’s counter advice. “Hope can also drive a man insane.”
The folly in the Bucks' logic is that they have cast off any young talent who could have developed into a supplemental piece. Andrew Nembhard, Myles Turner, and Ben Mathurin’s alliance was formed methodically in recent years. There’s a vast difference between Indiana’s rise and Milwaukee’s potential. The Pacers’ key contributors are young, cheap, and still developing. The Bucks' bench looks more like a collection of second mortgages, and that’s after they’ve played most of their trade chips. Horst is playing poker with a bad hand and praying for a miracle.
Giannis’ contract situation
Since winning the title in 2021, Milwaukee has bled out its young core and grown scar tissue. Pascal Siakam was acquired in a trade involving a first-round pick. Good luck finding one of those in Milwaukee. The gaping chasm between Rivers and Rick Carlisle is equally daunting. Antetokounmpo is a supernova, but Milwaukee has to replicate Indiana’s turnaround before Antetokounmpo gets trucked by Father Time.
There’s also the reality of Antetokounmpo’s contract situation. The Bucks franchise has two more years before he opts out to either pursue greener pastures, request a sign-and-trade or sign an extension. Given that next season is essentially a gap year,” the Bucks would have one season to prove they are trending towards
Poor timing may be their undoing. Next season, virtually the entire East is retooling. Indiana and Boston will be missing Tatum and Haliburton. Last week, Indiana fortuitously traded their 2025 first-round pick to recover their own 2026 first-rounder. That first will undoubtedly hold more value than their No. 26 pick in this week’s draft would have.
The front office almost certainly won’t rush back Lillard for the 2026 postseason. By the time Lillard is back in a Bucks lineup at the start of the 2026-27 season, the rest of their competitors will be finishing their sabbaticals as well. Detroit and Orlando’s young stars will be entering their primes. Haliburton and Tatum should be back with fresh Achilles tendons. Horst has to realize that the timeline is thin. The East will be back at full strength at the climax of Antetokounmpo’s deal.
If the Bucks aren’t in position by the 2027 Trade Deadline, the pressure will be on the front office to salvage the mess they’ve created. In the meantime, Milwaukee has limited time to right the ship.
Indiana didn’t get lucky. They got smart. They drafted well, made shrewd moves, and maximized their window. Milwaukee, by contrast, is clinging to a window that may already be closing.
The league is watching. Giannis may be too.