The frontrunners are crystallizing — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić for MVP, Cooper Flagg and Kon Kneuppel for Rookie of the Year, the Thunder, Rockets and Nuggets as inner-circle contenders. But our NBA team scratching the surface to see what's underneath, including third-place favorites for both awards and Eastern Conference contenders who could potentially crash the party.
1. Assuming Luka, Giannis and Wemby don’t play in enough games to qualify — who will finish third in the MVP race behind SGA and Jokić?
Bryan Toporek: It's an Eastern Conference guard, but it's hard to decide which one. Jalen Brunson? Cade Cunningham? Tyrese Maxey? It might come down to which of those teams finishes highest in the East, or, in the Sixers' case, if Maxey helps them finish in the top four despite Joel Embiid and Paul George shuffling in and out of the lineup all season.
Matt Moore: It’s going to be Brunson. I don’t find Brunson as impactful as Cade, Maxey (who is having a bonkers season), or Donovan Mitchell, whose numbers are terrific and the Cavs are likely to turn it around. In fact, Brunson’s behind Karl-Anthony Towns in Estimated Plus-Minus and Estimated wins on DunksAndThrees.com. But Brunson scores the most points through his grifting for a team that has a huge head start on Cleveland for the 1-seed and Detroit likely regresses. It’ll be Brunson, despite other players deserving it more.
Brennan Sims: Believe it or not, there's an argument that Cade Cunningham is flat out No. 3 in the MVP race, regardless of who qualifies. The counting numbers won't be in Cade's favor, but we must factor in the supporting cast. The Pistons are more built like the 2001 76ers — elite, elite defenders surrounded by a mega star. Detroit has more offensive talent than Allen Iverson and company, but Cade isn't playing next to another top-flight star, yet the Pistons remain No. 1 in the East as we approach Christmas!
Eamon Cassels: If the Pistons remain the No. 1 seed, it has to be Cade Cunningham. Even after a promising season, nobody expected the Pistons to be a top-three seed, never mind the No. 1 seed in the East. And frankly, if Cade wasn't there, are we sure the Pistons would even be a playoff team? Cade's dominance as a scorer and playmaker is unmatched, and he plays defense. When we talk about how much a player means to their team, Cade is nearly at the top of this list.
Ian Levy: I'm zagging and keeping it in the West. The Rockets are second in the NBA in strength-of-schedule adjusted point differential, and I think Alperen Şengün deserves some shine. He's averaging 23.5 points, 9.4 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks per game for arguably the second-best team in the league. He's gotten much better as a defender and has become a reliable outside threat, hitting 35.1 percent of his 3s this season. Durant grabs a lot of the spotlight, but Şengün is the heart and soul of this team.
2. Who will finish third in the Rookie of the Year race, behind Flagg and Kneuppel?
Bryan Toporek: Derik Queen is currently the betting favorite to finish third, with VJ Edgecombe and Cedric Coward right behind him. Edgecombe jumped out to an early lead before cooling off, while Queen has taken off as of late, albeit in the absence of Zion Williamson. If Zion stays healthy and the Pelicans don't trade him, though, it may be anyone's race. I'll go with VJ, if only because team success could be a tiebreaker.
Matt Moore: Who says Kneuppel finishes second? He’s only up there because he shot unreasonably well in November and that was never going to hold. Queen and Coward have both been much better in efficiency and impact. If Kneuppel stays hot and gets usage, I think it’ll be Queen, but honestly, there are a lot of good rookies who could make a run at it, including Tre Johnson once the Wizards have tanked enough to let him play. But Queen has to be the pick here. He’s not only putting up numbers, there’s impact behind him, which is honestly really exciting for Pelicans fans who have so little to be excited about.
Brennan Sims: Derik Queen became the first rookie to record a 30-point triple-double with four blocks earlier this month. He hasn't had a dominant performance like that since, but his high ceiling games will be too much to ignore when voters put pen to paper. He's certainly behind Kon and Coop, but there's a world where he goes on a PRA rampage for a Pelicans squad that has nothing to play for at 5-22.
Eamon Cassels: Give me Derik Queen. He is averaging 14.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 5.4 assists since becoming a starter. Queen has a clear runway to maintain or exceed this production for the rest of the season. Admittedly, it was a toss-up between Queen, Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecombe, and Cedric Coward for me. However, I don't see a world where Queen's offensive production doesn't remain close to this level on a wonky Pelicans team.
Ian Levy: Queen is certainly building momentum, but don't sleep on Dylan Harper. Having been the No. 2 pick will help his case, as will being the only rookie really playing significant minutes for a contender. He's already missed 10 games, so he'll need to stay healthy to qualify, but Harper is averaging 13.1 points, 3.7 assists and 3.1 rebounds in just over 20 minutes per game. He's been overshadowed by De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle in the backcourt, but he's giving the Spurs a real lift.
3. Victor Wembanyama has been talking about “ethical basketball.” What teams or players deploy the most UNETHICAL brand of basketball right now?
Bryan Toporek: Pick a foul grifter, any foul grifter. Joel Embiid and James Harden were the worst offenders in their prime, but Jalen Brunson beats them both now with his trademark "fling his body into defenders as soon as they leave their feet." Trae Young was in that conversation as well before the NBA tried to crack down on "non-basketball moves" a few years ago.
Matt Moore: The Lakers lead the league in free-throw rate despite being a perimeter-oriented offense. I get why Shai bugs people, but typically Shai is trying to finish the and-one instead of just flailing — unlike Brunson as Toporek said. Wemby was actually talking bout isolation basketball, and guess who leads the league in isolation basketball? Your Los Angeles Clippers! A sneaky one though is Houston, who basically runs isolation, misses, gets the rebound, and then gets fouled. That’s their whole offense.
Brennan Sims: I personally hate the "ethical" talk when it comes to the NBA. Sure, I'm a fan, but I realize these guys have a job to do in a results-based business. Strategy is more important than entertainment for me on this lonely island. Wemby could've been hinting at foul-baiting, excessive 3-point shooting, or any other thing NBA fans constantly complain about. Bad basketball is unethical, not strategies that help you win! Missing box outs, not communicating with teammates, and not rotating on defense. All of that stuff is unethical in my book. That said, the Clippers are not must-see TV. Get back on defense, guys.
Eamon Cassels: How about the Kings? I bet you weren't expecting that, and I concur that it has more to do with their roster construction than the players themselves. Regardless, they don't defend (27th-ranked DRTG), shoot (30th in 3-pointers made), or pass (28th in passes per game). I can't say a single positive thing about their play style or roster makeup; that's pretty unethical if you ask me.
Ian Levy: I'm still grappling with a full understanding of what ethical basketball means. But where I am right now, let's say LaMelo Ball. Lots of points, very little defense. Making highlights seems more important than making winning plays.
4. More surprising leap this year — Norm Powell or Jamal Murray?
Bryan Toporek: Norm Powell by a mile. We've seen this version of Jamal Murray in the playoffs before. Powell had a career year for the Clippers last season – and in retrospect, might have been the glue that was holding them together? – but he's been even better this year. And the Heat got him by only giving up Kyle Anderson and Kevin Love! Even they probably didn't expect this level of impact.
Matt Moore: Both of these players have honestly been great before/the last two years. Murray had a slow start in 2024-25 and then had a terrific January. His efficiency and playmaking have made huge strides, though, and he’s a much more complete player than he was even two years ago. Powell’s playing at a crazy high pace for Miami, but both of these guys are close to 50-40-90 on the season. Austin Reaves’ jump might be more surprising than both.
Brennan Sims: Norman Powell doubling down on last year's success caught me by surprise. I thought there would be fewer shots to go around in Miami, but that hasn't been true or mattered. Norm is shooting more shots per game than last year, but he got more efficient again (61 true shooting percentage last year, 64 this year). Jamal Murray has displayed this level of shotmaking on the biggest stage; he just needed to display it over 82 games. Both have rock-solid All-Star cases.
Eamon Cassels: I'll go with Norman Powell. Was Jamal Murray looking like the version of his playoff self, totally on my radar? No. However, I surely thought Powell's 2024-25 was closer to a fluke than the new norm. Not only was this closer to the new norm, but he leveled up again at 32. Shame on me for not believing in Powell, and shame on the league for letting the Heat get him for a bag of chips.
Ian Levy: Jamal Murray for me. I know he's only 28 and injuries have taken a tool the past few years but, other than a few magic games in the playoffs, he definitely looked like someone who had hit his ceiling. Powell's leap is exciting, but I'm not sure it ultimately means that much. Murray could change the title race.
5. How many teams in the East could actually win a seven-game series against whoever comes out of the West?
Bryan Toporek: Zero? The Knicks were down for most of the NBA Cup final against a Spurs team that had to be cautious with Victor Wembanyama's minutes. And the Spurs might only be the fourth-best team in the West! If any of the Thunder, Rockets and Nuggets come out of the West, they will be heavily favored in the Finals as long as they're relatively healthy heading into that series.
Matt Moore: Two. Based on history, you have to win 40 games before 20 losses (90 percent of NBA champions), be a top three seed (all but two NBA champions), and have an SRS above 3.0. The only two teams that qualify under that are the Knicks and the Pistons. So those teams are capable of winning the title. If you get to the Finals, everything resets. Who knows what shape the winner is in? Who knows if you shock them in Game 1? What if Houston or Denver knocks off OKC and thinks “Mission accomplished?” The Knicks have matched up well with the Nuggets over the years and can go offensive rebound for offensive rebound with the Rockets. The Pistons have a dynamic playmaker who can level up in Cade and a terrific defense. I think those two teams can win the title.
Brennan: The Pistons and Magic are good and won't be easy outs. I can't see their offensive firepower holding up against a Western Conference juggernaut in a playoff setting, though. The New York Knicks have firepower, rangy wing defenders, and a coach who's powered a team to the Finals before. I don't think Jalen Brunson is a better player than SGA or Joker, but it's absolutely on the table that he outduels either of them in a series. Brunson is that nice as a bucket-getter. I wouldn't favor NY against OKC or Denver, but I wouldn't say it would be a quick five-game series either.
Eamon Cassels: Barring injuries, it's zero. The Knicks certainly have the best chance. Nevertheless, I can't see the defensive duo of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns holding up against any of the best teams in the West. Plus, I still don't trust their depth. In all likelihood, the Thunder will repeat, but if a team like the Nuggets or Rockets pulls off an upset, you can all hand them the Larry O'Brien.
Ian Levy: The Pacers came within a few possessions of beating the Thunder in the Finals last year and, at this point in the season, they definitely didn't look like a contender. I think the eventual champion is almost certainly going to turn out to be the Thunder, Rockets or Nuggets. But lightning strikes happen and there are probably five or six teams in the East that could win it all with timing, luck and a bit of magic.