The NBA's second-apron era has changed team-building strategy around the league. Big Threes are out; depth and youth are in.
In June, the Oklahoma City Thunder became the second-youngest team in league history to win a championship, trailing only the 1976-77 Portland Trail Blazers. Their reign may have only just begun, too.
While the NBA's new collective bargaining agreement was effectively designed to prevent superteams and promote parity, the Thunder could prove to be the exception to that rule. After signing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren to massive extensions this offseason, they'll eventually have to deal with the same financial constraints that led the Phoenix Suns and Boston Celtics to conduct a fire sale over the past two months. However, they're armed with a war chest of draft picks that could help them defy the odds and keep their core together longer than the league office might like.
With a championship ring in hand and as many as 13 first-round picks headed their way within the next seven years, no team is set up better than the Thunder moving forward. They have some close competition in that department, though.
Based on each team's current salary structure, talent on the roster and number of future draft picks at their disposal, we've ranked which teams might pose the biggest long-term threat to OKC moving forward.
Honorable mentions
Orlando Magic
Future 1sts: 4
Future 2nds: 9
After flaming out in the first round of the playoffs each of the past two years, the Orlando Magic made an all-in push this offseason by acquiring Desmond Bane from the Memphis Grizzlies in a blockbuster trade. They sent out four first-round picks and set themselves up to be in apron hell as early as the 2026-27 season, but they're poised to capitalize on the suddenly wide-open Eastern Conference.
Few teams around the league boast a top four more potent than Bane, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs. The Magic will likely round out their starting five with 26-year-old center Wendell Carter Jr., and they have a pair of 2023 lottery picks in Anthony Black (No. 6 overall) and Jett Howard (No. 11 overall) who loom as major X-factors. Add in Tristan Da Silva (No. 20 in 2024) and rookie guard Jase Richardson (No. 25 in 2025), and the Magic have an abundance of young riches.
The only reason why the Magic aren't higher here is because this build likely won't be sustainable for long. They could have to start shedding pieces as soon as the 2027-28 campaign to keep their Big Four together beyond that. But if title windows are shrinking because of the new CBA, the Magic have set themselves up for a strong 2–3-year run.
Portland Trail Blazers
Future 1sts: 9
Future 2nds: 10
Damian Lillard recently made one thing clear: He isn't returning to the Portland Trail Blazers just to move back closer to his family. It's a basketball decision, too.
After stumbling to a 14-28 start last season, the Blazers briefly forced their way back into the play-in tournament picture before a late-season swoon ended their playoff hopes. Deni Avdija put up All-Star-caliber numbers after the All-Star break, while Toumani Camara burst onto the scene as a defensive menace who earned a second-team All-Defense nod.
The Blazers traded Anfernee Simons for veteran guard Jrue Holiday this offseason, but they still have plenty of young talent in their backcourt between Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe. They also have two high-upside centers in Donovan Clingan and rookie Yang Hansen (aka "Chinese Jokić"), along with control over the Milwaukee Bucks' first-round picks in 2028 and 2029. If Giannis Antetokounmpo leaves Milwaukee before then, those picks could be rocket fuel to the Blazers' ongoing rebuild.
5. Atlanta Hawks
Future 1sts: 8
Future 2nds: 5
The Atlanta Hawks aren't as loaded with future draft picks as the other teams featured here. What they do have is a terrifying blend of young talent and financial flexibility, particularly after signing Jalen Johnson to a five-year, $150 million contract that's already looking like one of the best-value deals in the league.
Johnson isn't the only steal on the Hawks' books, though. They also inked Onyeka Okongwu to a four-year, $62 million extension back in October 2023. He's projected to earn less than 10 percent of the salary cap in each of the next three seasons. Even if he temporarily shifts back to the bench following the offseason arrival of Kristaps Porziņģis, he's versatile enough to play alongside Zinger in two-big lineups as well.
The Hawks also have 2024 No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, who finished second in the Rookie of the Year race to San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle. (More on him later.) Risacher might not have the generational upside of Victor Wembanyama or Cooper Flagg, but with Johnson, Porziņģis and Trae Young flanking him, the Hawks don't need him to be a primary option on offense for now.
The Hawks pulled off a heist last offseason when they traded Dejounte Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans for Dyson Daniels and two future first-round picks. Daniels went on to win Most Improved Player and finish second in the Defensive Player of the Year race this past season. He's extension-eligible this offseason and figures to cost a pretty penny after his breakout season, but he's the exact type of defensive menace whom they need to cover up for Young's deficiencies on that end of the floor.
The Hawks weren't done ripping off the Pelicans, though. They also traded the No. 13 overall pick in this year's draft for the No. 23 pick (which they used on Georgia forward Asa Newell) and the better of the Pelicans or Milwaukee Bucks' fully unprotected 2026 first-round pick. One assistant general manager called it the "worst trade, non-Luka division, that we've seen in at least a decade."
Once free agency began, the Hawks cleverly structured Nickeil Alexander-Walker's contract to bully the Minnesota Timberwolves into agreeing to a sign-and-trade. That allowed them to spend most of their non-taxpayer mid-level exception on sharpshooter Luke Kennard.
While the Hawks have plenty of financial flexibility for the time being, that could get vaporized if they sign Daniels, Young and/or Porziņģis to extensions. For now, though, they have a stacked eight-man rotation along with two potentially high-upside future first-round picks from the Pelicans and/or Bucks.
4. Detroit Pistons
Future 1sts: 7
Future 2nds: 15
The Detroit Pistons weren't especially active this offseason. They lost Dennis Schröder and Tim Hardaway Jr. in free agency while bringing in Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson, which is likely a small net gain. Beyond that, they're largely running back the same group that helped them earn their first playoff berth in six seasons last year. (Malik Beasley, who's also a free agent, remains in limbo due to a gambling investigation.)
Even if Beasley doesn't return, the Pistons will get back Jaden Ivey, who was in the midst of a career year before he suffered a broken fibula on New Year's Day. The 23-year-old was setting new personal bests in points per game (17.6), overall shooting percentage (46.0%) and three-point shooting percentage (40.9%) prior to his injury.
Ivey wasn't the only member of the 2022 NBA draft class who had a strong season for the Pistons last year. Third-year center Jalen Duren averaged a double-double for the second straight year despite playing only 26.1 minutes per game. A Pistons front office executive told Spotrac's Keith Smith that both Duren and Ivey are "key guys for us" and that they hope to sign both to extensions "to keep them in Detroit for a long time."
In Ivey's absence, Cade Cunningham earned both his first All-Star and All-NBA nods after averaging a career-high 26.1 points and 9.1 assists per game, which bumped his extension up to 30 percent of the salary cap rather than 25 percent. The 2021 No. 1 overall pick also finished seventh in the MVP race and appears poised to be a foundational piece for the Pistons moving forward.
The Pistons' big wild cards are 2023 No. 5 overall pick Ausar Thompson and 2024 No. 5 overall pick Ron Holland II. Thompson finished in the 99th percentile of Dunks and Threes' estimated defensive plus/minus last season and shot 53.5 percent from the field, but he was a total non-factor from deep. Holland didn't make much of an impact as a rookie, but he earned an All-Summer League Team nod and appears poised for a breakout sophomore campaign.
Much like the Hawks, the Pistons have financial flexibility for now, but that could go away in the next few months if they sign Ivey and Duren to extensions. Thompson will become extension-eligible next summer, too. But for now, the Pistons are lurking as a team on the rise in the wide-open East.
3. Houston Rockets
Future 1sts: 8
Future 2nds: 7
After winning 52 games last season and finishing as the No. 2 seed as the Western Conference, the Houston Rockets began to cash in some of their chips this offseason. They traded Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, the No. 10 overall pick in the 2025 draft and five future second-round picks to the Phoenix Suns for Kevin Durant, and they landed veteran forward Dorian Finney-Smith and center Clint Capela in free agency.
Between Durant, Finney-Smith, Capela, Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams, the Rockets skew far older than the other teams featured here. They're already in the midst of their championship window, whereas the Pistons, Hawks and Magic may just be entering theirs. But the Rockets still have plenty of young talent, too.
Alperen Şengün, who is heading into the first season of his five-year, $185 million extension, is fresh off earning his first All-Star nod. Amen Thompson, who won't turn 23 until January, earned a first-team All-Defense selection and finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting last season. Those two are positioned to be the Rockets' franchise cornerstones after the Durant era ends.
The Rockets also have a pair of recent No. 3 overall picks, Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard, who still have plenty of room for growth. Smith's numbers have been relatively stagnant, and he even got bumped out of the starting lineup last year, but the Rockets just signaled their faith in him by handing him a five-year, $122 million extension this offseason. Meanwhile, the departure of Green should open up a rotation spot for Sheppard, who played sparingly as a rookie.
Throw in the bouncy Tari Eason, who's also extension-eligible, and the Rockets have a terrifying blend of veteran experience and youth. They also have a pair of fully unprotected first-round picks from the Suns and a fully unprotected 2029 first-round pick from the Dallas Mavericks, which could help them replenish their rotation whenever their veterans begin to age out.
2. San Antonio Spurs
Future 1sts: 7
Future 2nds: 16
Having Victor Wembanyama alone might earn the San Antonio Spurs a spot in these rankings. Before deep vein thrombosis cut his sophomore season short, he earned his first All-Star nod and was on a glide path to the Defensive Player of the Year award.
The 7'3" French phenom has led the league in blocks in each of his first two NBA seasons, but he isn't solely a defensive specialist like fellow Frenchman Rudy Gobert. He also averaged 24.3 points and 3.1 made three-pointers per game while shooting 47.6 percent overall and 35.2 percent from deep. If he stays healthy moving forward, it'd be shocking if he doesn't win multiple MVP awards in the coming years.
Wemby is the Spurs' cornerstone moving forward, but they've also done an impressive job building a high-upside backcourt around him over the past year. They spent the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 draft on Stephon Castle, who proceeded to win Rookie of the Year this past season, and they acquired veteran point guard De'Aaron Fox from the Sacramento Kings ahead of the February trade deadline.
The Spurs weren't done there, though. They tripled down on their backcourt by taking Dylan Harper with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2025 draft, pushing any potential fit concerns aside in favor of the best-player-available approach. They'll likely have to move on from at least one of Fox, Harper or Castle eventually, but it makes sense for them to let that process play out organically for the time being.
Harper wasn't the Spurs' only lottery pick this year. They took Arizona forward Carter Bryant with the No. 14 overall pick, who will pair with Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan and Julian Champagnie to fill out the Spurs' wing/forward rotation.
The Spurs aren't owed a ton of outright first-round picks from other teams, but they do have swap rights with the Hawks in 2026, Boston Celtics in 2028 (top-one-protected), either the Mavericks or Timberwolves (top-one-protected) in 2030 and the Kings in 2031. They're also owed two second-round picks in each of the 2028, 2029 and 2030 drafts, which they could use as trade assets down the line to bolster their rotation around Wemby.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Future 1sts: 13
Future 2nds: 16
As if you didn't already know who the top-ranked team would be here.
The Thunder are fresh off winning their first championship in franchise history. They just signed all three of SGA, J-Dub and Chet to massive extensions this offseason, ensuring they're locked in under contract for the rest of the decade. They'll start facing some tough financial decisions after this coming season, but they've structured the rest of their contracts with those in mind. Look no further than the team options they gave to Isaiah Hartenstein, Lu Dort and Kenrich Williams in 2026-27.
Not only do the Thunder have a young, high-upside Big Three, but they also have a stacked supporting cast that's mostly loaded with young players. Williams and Alex Caruso are their only two players above the age of 30. Cason Wallace (21) might be their eventual Caruso successor, while Aaron Wiggins (26) and Isaiah Joe (26) played key roles off the bench for OKC last season.
The Thunder also have a pair of young, high-upside rookies in Nikola Topić (No. 12 in 2024) and Thomas Sorber (No. 15 in 2025). If either of them pop, that could further extend the Thunder's window even after their Big Three begin their new extensions. If not, the Thunder will have plenty more bites at the apple over the next half-decade.
Teams often get into championship contention by depleting their asset pool to round out their supporting cast. For instance, the Denver Nuggets and Cleveland Cavaliers each have only one second-round pick from now through 2032. OKC could have as many as 13 first-rounders—including a pair of top-five-protected picks from the Nuggets in 2027 and 2029—and 16 second-rounders.
The NBA's new collective bargaining agreement effectively stacks the deck against teams built around Big Threes. But considering how well the Thunder have drafted and developed their young players in recent years, they'll have a real chance to defy the odds and sustain their success despite the challenging financial headwinds that they'll soon face.